Table for 12 Week 10: Texas finally gave Arch Manning a chance

We’ve waited all season for the highly anticipated matchup between the preseason No. 2 and No. 3 teams, but by the time Penn State’s trip to Columbus got here, the No. 1-ranked Buckeyes were three-score favorites against the interim head coach Terry Smith-led Nittany Lions. That’s been the story of this college football season, not just the coaching carousel, which could keep spinning this weekend (Hugh Freeze, come on down), but with shocking results that constantly reshape the landscape of the College Football Playoff. 

Week 10 brought us three more top 10 teams going down, with No. 8 Georgia Tech, No. 9 Vanderbilt, and No. 10 Miami all losing on Saturday. There have now been 20 AP top 10 teams to lose this season, with at least one in every week by Weeks 9 and 2. Five of those losses came from head-to-head matchups with another top 10 team. Week 10's three falls shy of Weeks 8 and 5, which both had four top 10 teams go down, but both included head-to-head top 10 matchups. 

Taking a couple of losses might just be the new reality for every program in this new era, but who knows how many years it’ll be before the boosters who agree to pay the $50 million buyouts catch on to that? 

This week, we’ll start with one of those top 10 losses, though don’t call it an upset because Texas was favored by 3.5 in Austin.

First Course

1. Speed Kills (No. 20 Texas 34 No. 9 Vanderbilt 31

The conversation has always, inevitably, centered around Arch Manning, but the reality of Texas’s offensive struggles through nine weeks was that they largely weren’t about the quarterback at all. In the first half, as the Longhorns built a 24-10 lead over Vanderbilt, their bounce-back wasn’t either. 

Steve Sarkisian, who has found himself under fire in Austin with pleas for him to give up play-calling, proved why he’s still one of the best. After a week in concussion protocol, he got the ball out of Manning’s hands quickly, feeding his dynamic playmakers in space and daring Vanderbilt to tackle them. From play No. 1, a 75-yard catch-and-run touchdown by Ryan Wingo, they couldn’t. 

That play skews the numbers a bit, but Texas managed 183 yards after the catch in the first half (finished with 203). Vanderbilt was allowing 101 yac/game through the first eight games of the season, but recorded 20 missed tackles against Texas. Manning went 16-for-18 for 209 yards and two touchdowns on dropbacks of under 2.5 seconds in Week 10. 

Sark’s steady diet of screens and quick throws slowed Vanderbilt’s pass rush, which protected a shaky offensive line, and gave Manning time to orchestrate the most impressive drive of his entire career in the third quarter, an 11-play 93-yard drive that showcased his anticipation and touch, picking up yardage in chunks through the air. He went 7-for-8 for 87 yards and a touchdown on the drive to go up 31-10 and finished the game 25-for-33 for 328 yards and three touchdowns. 

This season, he’s been pressured on over 40 percent of his dropbacks. Saturday, he was pressured just six times and went 4-for-5 for 41 yards and a touchdown with no sacks. Accessing more deep throws in rhythm (under 2.5 seconds) will be key going forward, but Manning showed today how well he can operate in better circumstances.

Second helping

2. Speed Kills, or at least survives (No. 20 Texas 34 No. 9 Vanderbilt 31)

Texas didn’t submit the dominant defensive performance that it was on pace for, but just as the Longhorns’ speed advantage was too much for Vanderbilt’s defense, the burst in Pete Kwiatkowski’s front seven thwarted Diego Pavia and the Commodores’ modus operandi. 

Under offensive coordinator Tim Beck, Vanderbilt lives on misdirection, both on the ground and through the air. Deception is often how they negate the advantage of elite SEC athletes, slowing them a step with eye candy. Often, they can use that speed against the opposing defense, catching overaggressive defenses out of position or jumping at shadows. 

However, on Saturday, Texas played see-ball, hit-ball on defense, and had the athlete to pull it off. Whenever Beck tried to get the Longhorns’ linebackers coming downhill with run-action, pulling a guard in pass-protection, or out-leverage their second-level defenders on the ground with counter runs, Colin Simmons, Anthony Hill, and Ethan Burke ignored the window-dressing, attacked the mesh point, and wreaked havoc. 

The overall numbers for Vanderbilt’s offense are impressive, largely inflated by the fourth quarter. But Texas finished with 10 tackles for loss and six sacks, which cost Vanderbilt 91 yards. 

Eventually, with a big lead, Texas played more soft zones, and Diego Pavia was able to get the dropback passing game going, but it was far too little too late. Pavia was pressured on 42 percent of his dropbacks for the game and finished 5-for-11 for 38 yards and a touchdown. For the season, he’s averaging just 4.3 yards per attempt when pressured with four touchdowns to three interceptions. 

With two losses, Vanderbilt is already on the brink of CFP elimination. A third will be the nail in the coffin, and both Auburn, their next opponent, and Tennessee, their final one, have the type of pass rushers that have been giving the Commodores fits. 

Reservations: The season isn’t over yet, but these teams have all but locked up a spot in the CFP

3. Ohio State isn’t infallible, but it’s close (Ohio State 38 Penn State 14)

Ohio State entered what was supposed to be one of the games of the year as an 18.5-point favorite and covered that spread with ease. However, despite its winless start to Big Ten play, Penn State still had many of the same players that made it the No. 2 team in the country in the preseason. 

That physical run-first style, even with redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer at quarterback, managed a 53 percent rushing success rate in the first half, pushing around a slightly undersized Ohio State front seven that is best defending the pass. Thanks to a CJ Donaldson Jr. fumble and a short field, Ohio State led by just 3 at halftime. Then, the Buckeyes responded with 21 straight points to close it out. 

Ohio State is the best team in the country, but there may be a team out there that can run the ball, stay out of third-and-long situations, where Matt Patricia has been so good at disguising his coverages and confusing opposing QBs. Maybe that team is Michigan, maybe it’s Indiana, but it takes more than a strong run game to beat the Buckeyes. More on that later. 

Reservations: Week 9- Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Indiana Week 10- Ohio State

Check Please!: When it’s clear there won’t be a seat for you at the CFP table, it’s time to pay your check and go

4. Willie, we barely knew you (West Virginia 45 No. 22 Houston 35)

Houston deserves credit for even putting itself in this situation in the first place in Year 2 of the Willie Fritz era. But the Cougars had a clear path to the Big 12 Title Game and squandered it just a week after upsetting Arizona State and climbing into the top-25. And Houston lost despite a 51 to 39 percent success rate advantage and averaging 7.51 yards per play. 

There are two ways to lose a game like this. One is to falter in the red zone, but Houston finished with an 89 percent success rate inside the 20-yard line. The other is turnovers, and the Cougars gave the ball away like Halloween candy. Houston finished with four turnovers, two interceptions and two lost fumbles. Still, because it recovered three of its five fumbles for the game, Houston actually finished with positive 0.8 points of turnover luck. 

This is a flawed team, ranking outside the top 100 in offensive EPA/play and per game. Fritz’s roster construction was always with next year, when five-star quarterback Keiseason Henderson arrives, in mind. Even if the Big 12 crumbles, it’s hard to imagine this team beating Texas Tech, BYU, or Cincinnati/Utah in the conference title game, so I’m ready to send the Cougars home. 

5. That makes three (No. 18 Oklahoma No. 14 Tennessee 27)

There is a very good chance that a three-loss SEC team makes the College Football Playoff, especially with the introduction of the new “strength of record” metric that the CFP committee will be relying on. It’s impossible to know how that will affect their rankings, but it’s safe to assume it’ll favor the SEC, and probably, rightfully so. 

However, I’m ready to write off this Tennessee team because even if they win out, beating Vanderbilt in Week 14, that will be by far the Vols’ best win. That’s just not enough to be the first three-loss team to make the 12-team CFP after Alabama missed with a win over Georgia a year ago. 

In this one, Tennessee had its share of chunk plays, averaging 7.72 yards per play, and Joey Aguilar averaged 8.09 yards per dropback. Brent Venables, though, knew he could force Aguilar into mistakes, and did. 

Josh Heupel’s veer and shoot offense, though he doesn’t exclusively rely on them, utilizes wide splits from its wide receivers to force the defense to declare its box count. Without many bodies tight to the formation, it can be more difficult for Venables to get into his exotic blitz packages. Last season, he blitzed Nico Iamaleava on 50 percent of his dropbacks, and he torched him for 17.2 yards per attempt. 

This season, Venables still stunted on the interior but significantly dialed back the blitz, as Aguilar burned it for 13.1 yards per attempt and all three of his touchdowns. Instead, he decided to get creative on the backend, rotating safeties post-snap and disguising coverages. It had Agular, a first-read point-and-shoot quarterback putting the ball into harm's way, throwing his seventh and eighth interceptions of the season. 

Aguilar’s fearlessness and deep ball accuracy have unlocked the most explosive elements of Heupel’s offense for the first time since 2023 with Hendon Hooker. That same fearlessness made this offense too volatile to consistently carry one of the worst defenses in the entire Power 4. 

Head of the table: The best individual performance earns the seat at the head of the table

6. Ohio State QB, Julian Sayin (No. 1 Ohio State 38 Penn State 14)

Part of Ohio State pulling away in the second half was Julian Sayin completing 20 of his 23 throws for 316 yards and four touchdowns. The redshirt freshman QB averaged 0.84 EPA and 13.91 yards per dropback. 

By Collegefootballdata’s PPA (predicted points added) metric, it was the most efficient passing performance by an Ohio State offense since CJ Stroud threw for 367 yards and five touchdowns in a 77-21 win over Toledo, and the most efficient against a Power Conference opponent in their database that dates back to 2001. He’s become an absolute killer, going 4-for-4 on attempts over 20 yards downfield in Week 10 and averaging 17.6 yards per attempt on his 10 pressured dropbacks. 

Bad spill: It’s not a party until somebody spills, and these teams might need a change of clothes after their major mishaps

7. It takes more than a King (NC State 48 No. 8 Georgia Tech 36)

Heading into this week, four teams in the country had three wins in games that they lost the net success rate battle. Virginia and Georgia Tech were two of them. The Cavaliers nearly blew a 24-14 fourth-quarter lead to Cal, but the luckiest team in college football closed it out with a pick-six. Georgia Tech wasn’t so fortunate. 

The Yellow Jackets won the success rate battle in this one, but came out on the losing end to NC State. Haynes  King accounted for 511 yards of total offense in this one, 408 and two touchdowns through the air and 103 and two more scores on the ground. Somehow, that wasn’t enough. 

NC State, without star running back Hollywood Smothers and star tight end Justin Joly, averaged 8.70 yards per play and 10.18 yards per dropback. Georgia Tech’s defense could very well waste King’s Heisman-caliber season. While the Yellow Jackets still have a path to the ACC Championship Game, they may need to beat Georgia in the final week of the regular season to be deserving of an at-large bid. 

8. Miami’s money moves (SMU 26 No. 10 Miami 20 (OT))

If you looked out on the field at Gerald J. Ford Stadium on Saturday, you saw plenty of dollar signs. SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee became one of the 10 highest-paid coaches in college football on Friday, a day before securing the program’s first home win over a top-10 opponent since 1974. The player who all but secured it was the highest-paid transfer quarterback in college football history, Carson Beck. 

Beck threw two more interceptions in Week 10, increasing his total to nine in eight games with the Hurricanes after throwing 12 a year ago at Georgia. As for the overtime pick, it’s impossible to absolve Beck of blame, but you can make a real argument that this one is on his receiver, Malachi Toney. 

You have to keep the route flat and drive back to the football. You can’t start drifting into the end zone and allow yourself to get undercut. If Toney runs this route along the four-yard line, it may not be a first down, but it’s likely a completion and certainly not a turnover. 

Still, Beck, once again, gave the ball away in a crucial spot. And Mario Cristobal, once again, turtled in a late-game situation, electing to take a knee with 25 seconds left in regulation and one timeout from the 25-yard line. You don’t pay $5 million for a quarterback to play conservative in that spot, but you don’t pay him to throw a backbreaking interception in overtime either, so maybe Cristobal was vindicated for his mistake, too. 

Either way, Miami is in major trouble. The Hurricanes have to hope that a head-to-head win against Notre Dame, another two-loss at-large candidate, keeps them ahead of the Irish, but I doubt it will, and frankly, I don’t think it should.

Appetizers: A little something to chew on from the week that was in college football

9. Third-down Dawgs (No. 5 Georgia 24 Florida 20)

I’ve written enough about Gunner Stockton, and he continues to be at his best in the biggest moments. So, let’s focus on the other side of the ball, one I’ve often lambasted as the thing holding Georgia back from being a true national title contender. 

Georgia’s pass rush has been wildly underwhelming this season. That, along with a lack of run-stuffing, has allowed opponents to convert on late downs at a 44.8 percent clip this year while facing a first percentile average distance of just 5.91 yards. That distance was just 4.85 yards for Florida on Saturday, yet the Gators finished with a 23 percent late-down success rate and -1.61 EPA/play. 

Florida has been one of the worst late-down offenses in the country all season, and Georgia did not sack DJ Lagway, only pressuring him nine times, but they’ve steadily improved at the second and third levels. CJ Allen was everywhere in Jacksonville, recording 11 tackles and seven stops, the most by a Georgia defender since Allen in Week 14 against Georgia Tech last season, and the most by a Georgia defender in regulation since Allen, as a true freshman, in a 52-17 win over Ole Miss in Week 11 of the 2023 season. 

10. Bloomington Blowouts (No. 2 Indiana 55 Maryland 10)

The Hoosiers have already made their reservation into the 12-team CFP, but that doesn’t mean they can’t keep making noise on their way in. There’s nothing impressive about beating Maryland or UCLA, which Indiana has done in back-to-back weeks, but the margin is noteworthy. 

Indiana cracked 50 for the fifth time this season and recorded their fifth win by 40 or more points. The Hoosiers’ average point differential per game of +29.0 (through 10 weeks) is the most in college football since the 2020-21 Alabama team that won the national championship with a +29.1. That margin of +29.0 seems to be a meaningful threshold as only 5 teams have cleared it in the last 15 seasons: 2013-14 Florida State (national champion), 2018-19 Clemson (national champion), 2019-20 Ohio State (CFP semifinalist), 2019-20 Clemson (national runner-up), and 2020-21 Alabama (national champion). 

Indiana obviously has quite a bit of work left to do, navigating a likely Big Ten Championship Game and then the CFP, but right now, this team is on pace to be memorably great. 

Dessert: Whether it’s a rich play design or a decadent athletic display, here’s a sweet football treat

11. Late-night snack (No. 24 Utah 45 No. 17 Cincinnati 14)

65-year-old Kyle Whittingham doesn’t seem like he’d be the creative type, but he wanted a more diverse offensive attack when he hired Jason Beck from New Mexico this offseason. Well, he’s gotten it, and Beck unveiled a few new wrinkles in Week 10 against Cincinnati, which was previously unbeaten in the Big 12. 

A week after true freshman Byrd Ficklin led the Utes to a blowout win over Colorado, Beck had running back Wayshawn Parker taking wildcat snaps. The flashiest was Parker’s 39-yard touchdown run, but with a dominant offensive line, that creative rushing attack can be effective. Especially when it includes wrinkles like a jet sweep handoff to Devon Dampier for a 46-yard pass to Ryan Davis. 

Kid’s menu: The CFP is a 12-team reservation that needs one kid’s menu for the Group of Six team

12. Code Red… zone(North Texas 31 Navy 17)

Navy found itself in the mix for the American Championship Game and the Group of Six’s CFP bid at 7-0, but that was largely thanks to a favorable early schedule, and boy, did that dry up quickly. The Midshipmen faced their first true test in Week 10, heading to North Texas, and were not at all up to the challenge. 

North Texas QB Drew Mestemaker is typically the star of the show, and he was highly efficient, averaging 9.15 yards per dropback, but running back Caleb Hawkins, with 197 yards and four touchdowns, stole the spotlight. 

Navy still managed a 54 percent success rate for the game, but the No. 2 offense in red zone touchdown percentage coming into the week finished the game with a turnover on downs at the North Texas nine-yard line, and an interception at the Mean Green’s 17. Navy’s 29 percent red zone success rate was its worst of the season, managing just 10 points on four red zone trips. 

With Notre Dame, South Florida, and Memphis left before Army/Navy, the Midshipmen are effectively out of the running after their first loss.