A 2-3 record in Week 2 is not what we wanted, but I found myself on the wrong end of two of the week’s worst beats, the Illinois/Duke first-half under, which was kept alive by a soft penalty and lost on a touchdown pass with eight seconds remaining in the second quarter, and Ole Miss -9.5 which Lane Kiffin openly apologized for costing gamblers after the game. Thanks, Lane.
The process is sound, and this week, luck will turn our way. Let’s hope. Also, this week, conference play kicks off for many teams across the country, giving us a fairly robust slate for mid-September. There are three top 20 matchups on Saturday, if you’re into that kind of thing, and I’ve got plays on two of them.
Here’s a look at my five best bets for Week 3 of the college football season.
1. No. 12 Clemson -3.5 (-104) vs. Georgia Tech
Clemson cannot run the ball. Dabo Swinney’s experiment, moving Adam Randall from wide receiver to running back, has yielded a rushing offense that ranks 85th in the country in success rate and 129th in EPA/carry. Cade Klubnik, who at times has put up big rushing games against inferior competition, hasn’t done much to help on the ground or through the air, for that matter. Still, the good news for the Tigers in Week 3 is that Georgia Tech can’t stop the run.
If there were ever a game for Randall and the Clemson run-game to get going, it would be against the Yellow Jackets’ defense that ranks 114th in the country in EPA/rush and 77th in rushing success rate allowed. Haynes King should be healthy enough to play for Georgia Tech, but I expect Clemson’s offense to finally get out of the mud it’s been stuck in, at least temporarily, and King isn’t the type of passer who can keep pace.
2. No. 6 Georgia -4 (-110) vs. No. 15 Tennessee
odds via BetMGM
Tennessee fans are taking a bit of a premature victory lap on their supposed QB upgrade, going from Nico Iamaleava to Joey Aguilar. Aguilar has been statistically excellent for Josh Heupel and is the type of point-and-shoot quarterback who gets the ball out on time and puts it where he’s supposed to in a highly-schemed-up offense.
Aguilar, however, has made just one big-time throw through two games and has used play-action on 68.3 percent of his dropbacks. Without it, his productivity falls off a cliff. His completion rate drops 20 percent, and his yards per attempt plummets with it. Georgia won’t allow Tennessee to play comfortably with a lead and use play-action as a crutch for its quarterback. Aguilar also hasn’t been sacked yet this season, so let’s see what happens when the Georgia defense hits him a few times on Saturday.
While Tennessee may have downgraded at quarterback, Georgia certainly did, but Kirby Smart assembled a talented group of wide receivers around Gunner Stockton, who should take advantage of the Vols’ injuries at cornerback. Tennessee hasn’t beaten Georgia since 2016, and the Dawgs’ average margin of victory has been 24.9 points in the eight matchups since.
3. No. 18 USF vs. No. 5 Miami (FL) -10.5 (+105) 1st half
odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
So far this season, no team has been more fun than the USF Bulls. Alex Golesh’s team is 2-0 after steamrolling Boise State and upsetting Florida in Gainesville last week. While I love Todd Orlando’s aggressive, hard-hitting defense, and quarterback Byrum Browns fearless running style, there is nothing sustainable about USF’s start to the season.
That’s not just because it’s come against quality opponents. USF is a good team itself and should be the Group of Six favorite for the College Football Playoff. It’s because of the staggering lack of down-to-down success this year. The Bulls have relied heavily on big plays to score points, with an explosive play rate of 9.4 percent, but on a down-to-down basis, they’re 114th in offensive success rate. That won’t fly against a revamped Miami defense.
I don’t trust Mario Cristobal to hold a big lead late, but Miami’s talent advantage, especially in the trenches, will allow the Hurricanes to build a significant first-half lead.
4. Florida +7 (-105) vs. No. 3 LSU
odds via BetMGM
This could be Billy Napier’s last stand, but the reality is, he has a good football team. Napier grossly mismanaged the Gators' Week 2 loss to USF, but I could see Florida beating LSU outright in Death Valley on Saturday night. Still, my best play here is to take the points.
The script has flipped for LSU this season. The defense appears to be fixed with Blake Baker in his second season and an influx of Transfer Portal talent. The offense, however, is living on a razor's edge, with a shaky offensive line and no discernible run game. That puts a ton on Garrett Nussmeier’s shoulders, who has somehow converted an average third-down distance of 8.19 (121st) into a 51.9 percent third-down success rate (38th). Impressive, but also very likely unsustainable.
Even defensively, there’s a chance that LSU gets burned more this week than they have in the first two matchups. Baker’s unit has posted a 60 percent blitz rate so far this season, and while Cade Klubnik and Louisiana Tech’s Trey Kukuk haven’t burned him, DJ Lagway might.
5. Navy vs. Tulsa +13.5 (-104)
odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Navy fancies itself a College Football Playoff contender, and after a 1-1 start with a loss to New Mexico State last week, Tulsa is at least a tier or two down. However, this isn’t a bad matchup for the Golden Hurricane. Tulsa has defended the run remarkably well so far this year, ranking 10th in EPA/rush and 16th in opponent rushing success rate. They’ve just struggled to get off the field, ranking 128th in opponent late-down success rate.
Navy, with its triple-option attack, has an 80 percent run rate through two games. Blake Horvath is a competent passer, and the Midshipmen have been effective with a more varied offensive game plan in recent seasons, but if you can stop the run, you can hang with Navy, and Tulsa can stop the run.
Follow all of Josh Yourish's bets and see full betting record HERE
Odds are subject to change