Yes, with the new 12-team College Football Playoff format, the best teams in the country can survive a loss or two, and that takes some of the sting out of Tennessee’s missed field goal at the end of regulation against Georgia last week. But on the flip side, the expansion presents a Week 4 that could have multiple potential college football elimination games.
With so much at stake across the country, this week’s slate really gets the juices flowing, and I could use the extra shot of adrenaline after last week’s best bets results. Two losses could have been wins if the rules allowed Georgia to kick a meaningless extra point in overtime, or if Florida, which dominated LSU by net success rate, hadn’t thrown five interceptions, but alas, 1-4 is 1-4 anyway you slice it.
So, this week, it’s time for a real bounce back, and I’ve got five best bets that could do it. Let’s dive right in with a potential Big 12 Title Game preview.
1. No. 17 Texas Tech vs. No. 16 Utah: Over 56.5 (-110)
It could be a sleepy start with a 10 a.m. local time kick in Salt Lake City (what are we doing, FOX?), but as Behren Morton and Devon Dampier start to wake up, I think this game could become a shootout in a hurry.
Both teams are currently top 12 in the country in plays per game, and though it may not be wise for the Red Raiders to enter into a track meet at elevation, Joey McGuire could view it as his team’s only hope of neutralizing Utah’s edge in the trenches. With Morton’s shoulder back healthy (and having played three widely inferior opponents), Texas Tech ranks 4th in the country in EPA/dropback and needs to give its quarterback as many opportunities with the ball as it can.
I see Utah as the better team, but feel more comfortable playing the total than laying the -3.5.
2. No. 22 Auburn vs. No. 11 Oklahoma: 1st half Under 23.5 (-108)
Brent Venables saw a year of Jackson Arnold as his starting quarterback and said no thank you. So, it’s safe to say he’s familiar with what stumps his former quarterback and will break out those looks in droves.
Arnold’s most impressive performance of the season came in Week 1 against Baylor, but he did the bulk of his damage on the ground, rushing for 137 yards and two scores on 16 carries. Even with the elite wide receivers Arnold has on the outside, I bet Venables loads up to stop the run and dares Arnold to beat him with his arm. Frankly, I don’t think he can, especially not early on.
So why not take Oklahoma to cover the 6.5? I considered it. Then I remembered that the Tigers have Keldric Faulk, Keyron Crawford, and five-star freshman Jared Smith coming off the edge against a troublesome group of Oklahoma offensive tackles, and I backed off. I still like the Sooners to win the game at home, but the first half under is the safest play.
3. South Carolina vs. No. 23 Missouri -9.5 (-110)
LaNorris Sellers is questionable for South Carolina’s trip to Columbia, Missouri, but regardless of who plays quarterback for the Gamecocks, I don’t see Shane Beamer’s team hanging around with Missouri for very long.
Even with Sellers for most of the year, South Carolina is generating -0.13 EPA/carry (114th) with a 36.2 percent rushing success rate (109th). That will force Sellers or Luke Doty to drop back far too often in obvious passing situations against a Missouri defense that ranks 11th in opponent EPA/dropback and a pass rush led by Damon Wilson II, who has nine QB pressures, three sacks, and a 24.3 percent pass-rush win rate, which ranks 15th best in the country and fourth best in the SEC.
That’s a significant mismatch, and I didn’t even mention the other side of the ball, where Beau Pribula has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country. This South Carolina team could struggle to make a bowl, and Missouri, with its soft SEC schedule, is a legitimate College Football Playoff dark horse.
4. No. 9 Illinois vs. No. 19 Indiana -6.5 (-110)
Last season, Indiana killed every team on its schedule that didn’t ultimately play in the national championship game, finished with a 9-4 record against the spread, with the largest ATS in the country at +12.8, and was 9-2 ATS as a favorite. It feels like a lot of points, but aside from a Week 1 matchup with Old Dominion when Indiana put points up on just 57.1 percent of its red zone trips, the Hoosiers have been dominant again.
I have concerns about Illinois’s offensive line as a run-blocking unit, and against Duke, that group allowed Altmyer to be pressured 16 times and sacked four despite an average time to throw of 2.37 seconds. When pressured this season, Altmyer’s yards per attempt drop from 9.4 to 7.6, and with a 27.6 percent pressure-to-sack ratio, he’s taking far too many negative plays. Mikhail Kamara should feast and derail multiple Illini drives.
Offensively, with Fernando Mendoza at quarterback, Indiana is ninth in EPA/play and third in success rate, granted against subpar opponents. But the Hoosiers have achieved those rankings despite a 5.8 percent explosive play rate and 4.4 percent explosive pass rate. When Mike Shanahan cranks the offense up for Big Ten play, it could hit another gear.
5. Michigan State vs. No. 25 USC: USC team total over 37.5 (-110)
Michigan State has made real strides in Year 2 under Jonathan Smith, and a 3-0 start is proof of that. Aidan Chiles is making far fewer mistakes and has improved his accuracy, which gives the Spartans a chance to throw a few punches in what I expect to be a high-scoring affair late Saturday night in LA.
However, the Michigan State defense is still a long way off and allowed 40 points to Boston College in Week 2 (yes, with two overtimes) despite holding the Eagles to 2.7 yards per carry. BC quarterback Dylan Lonergan managed 0.54 EPA/dropback and a 56 percent passing success rate. If Michigan State’s defensive backs couldn’t track down Lewis Bond and Jeremiah Franklin, good luck keeping Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane in check.
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