A 3-2 record last week is a promising turn for our best bets, and we were a Missouri missed extra point away from 4-1. Last week was an underratedly great slate of games with significant College Football Playoff implications, but it doesn’t compare to Week 5. In fact, no week on the schedule can quite measure up to the matchups we’ve got on deck this Saturday. So, I’m taking big swings at the biggest games.
Sometimes, your best bets are Missouri -13.5 in the first quarter against UMass or Pitt/Louisville under 57.5, and on most weeks, those would do. But when No. 3 Penn State is hosting No. 6 Oregon for the White Out in Happy Valley, No. 5 Georgia is hosting No. 17 Alabama in Athens, and No. 4 LSU is heading to Oxford for the Magnolia Bowl against No. 13 Ole Miss, you can’t shy away from the big stage.
This week, it’s not just my best bets for Week 5, it’s my best bets for some of the best games of the college football season. So let’s get the card set for Saturday.
All listed betting odds are subject to change
1. USC -7 (-105) vs. Illinois
Illinois was a mere 6.5-point underdog on the road last week when Indiana laid waste to the Illini in Bloomington, 63-10. I was on the Hoosiers in that one, and this week I’m back to faded Bret Bielema’s crew, and for the same reasons.
Illinois’s veteran offensive line just hasn’t been up to snuff this year. Luke Atlmyer was sacked seven times last week and has been pressured on 35.8 percent of his dropbacks this season. He’s yet to throw a touchdown when under pressure, completes barely over half of his throws, and has a staggeringly high 34.1 percent pressure-to-sack rate. Those negative plays can derail offensive drives if they ever get going with a running game that hasn’t moved the ball on any defense with a pulse. And for once, this USC defense actually does.
On the other side of the ball, USC is the No. 1 passing offense by EPA/pass. Despite missing wide receiver Ja’Kobi Lane for an indefinite period, Makai Lemon and the Trojans have enough firepower to threaten an Illini secondary that entered Week 4 banged up and left with even more injury concerns.
2. Notre Dame team total over 34.5 (-112) vs. Arkansas
After Week 1, I wrote about how Mike Denbrock had the training wheels on CJ Carr in his first start against Miami, but since that loss, they’ve come off, and the Notre Dame offense has been explosive. Denbrock is letting Carr push the ball downfield, where he’s 9-for-14 on passes over 20 air-yards this season for 354 yards and two touchdowns with four big-time throws, and the Fighting Irish has scored 40 and 56 points in their last two outings.
A deep passing game like Carr has provided is the perfect complement to Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price in the backfield, who have the good fortune of facing the 127th-ranked defense by rushing success rate. I have questions about the Notre Dame defense as well, so I don’t have the full game over, but there’s a chance that Arkansas just packs it in for the season after falling to 2-2 with a loss to Memphis last week, so the Notre Dame team total feels safer.
3. LSU +1.5 (-105) vs. Ole Miss
Garrett Nussmeier may not be healthy all season, and that’s a big issue for an offense that has a 58.7 percent pass rate. The LSU offense has been spinning its wheels all season and ranks a pedestrian 54th nationally in EPA/drive. However, Lane Kiffin doesn’t have the defensive line he had last season, and frankly, doesn’t have an SEC-caliber defensive line at all. The Mississippi defense ranks 123rd in EPA/rush, 120th in rushing success rate, and because of that, ranks 112th in average third-down distance.
The Rebels can’t expose the issues with LSU’s defensive line and the Tigers’ lack of run game, which will have Nussmeier in advantageous situations all game long. On the other side, Kiffin is rolling with D2 transfer Trinidad Chambliss at quarterback again. While that’s the right decision because he’s been excellent all year, he hasn’t faced a defense like LSU’s and a defensive coordinator like Blake Baker, who is going to turn up the heat. I see LSU as the better team, flaws and all, so if I’m getting a point and a half, even on the road, I’ll take it.
4. Oregon vs. Penn State Under 24.5 (-105) 1st half
I’m not sure there’s a quarterback in the country who I’ve enjoyed watching this season more than Dante Moore. The former UCLA five-star has taken to the Will Stein offense, and in some ways elevated it with his poise in the pocket and his accuracy to the intermediate middle of the field. However, a White Out in Happy Valley is an entirely different beast, and this time, in a Big Ten Championship Game rematch, Penn State has Jim Knowles running the defense.
I think Knowles, who stuffed Stein, one of the best play-callers in the country, into a locker in the Rose Bowl last year, will have something new up his sleeve. Moore has yet to be sacked, and though he has a great offensive line, that group hasn’t seen anything like Dani Dennis-Sutton and Zane Durant just yet. I think this game could pick up steam as both sides get comfortable, but I love the first half under at Beaver Stadium in Week 5.
5. Alabama vs. Georgia over 53.5 (-105)
By now, you’ve certainly heard this stat: Kirby Smart is 1-6 in his career against Alabama. But you may not realize that those games have, on average, featured 50.9 points per game, and the over is 4-2-1. It’s not exactly an overwhelming trend, but neither of these programs, historically known for their stout defenses, has held the other offense in check since the rivalry kicked into high gear in 2018.
Last season, we saw 75 points, in part because Kalen DeBoer has continually had success against the Nick Saban tree of defensive coaches. You may remember Smart’s halftime comments to Holly Rowe in Tuscaloosa last year, with the Tide leading 30-7, when he essentially admitted that his team wasn’t prepared for some of the looks they gave.
Beyond the schematics of it all, both of these teams have real deficiencies that I expect to make this a high-scoring affair. Neither has the game-changing pass-rusher that has routinely cycled through these two programs in recent years. That should help keep Ty Simpson and Gunner Stockton clean, and both have a questionable run game, so they tend to air the ball out with a talented group of receivers.
If you forced me to play a side, I’m taking Alabama, but I like the over quite a bit more.
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