It’s Red River Week, but one of college football’s greatest rivalries isn’t just overshadowed by a top 10 matchup in Eugene and a top 15 SEC showdown in CoMo; it’s also shrouded in uncertainty. Oklahoma starting quarterback John Mateer is officially probable to play, after that seemed unthinkable after it was reported that he underwent surgery on his throwing hand just 17 days before the Sooners’ annual meeting with the Longhorns at the Texas State Fair.
Will Mateer play? Will Arch Manning play well? Can either of these offensive lines hold up against elite pass rushes? There are too many questions for me to have a play for Red River. While I want to bet on Texas, I’m staying disciplined with my best bets to have a strong second half of the season.
But don’t worry, just because we’re keeping our powder dry for the shootout, doesn’t mean we aren’t firing on the other big games on the board for Week 7. I’ve got a play for Indiana/Oregon, Alabama/Missouri, and a huge matchup in Salt Lake City to decide the Big 12s top contender to Texas Tech.
All listed betting odds are subject to change
1. No. 8 Alabama vs No. 14 Missouri OVER 51.5 (-108)
I bet the Alabama first half over last week, and though it fell short, I would do it again. The Crimson Tide moved the ball in chunks on Vanderbilt, averaging 7.04 yards per play in the 30-14 win, and if it wasn’t for two red zone turnovers from Diego Pavia, we would have gone over both the first half and full game total.
Ty Simpson will hunt big plays against a questionable Missouri secondary, and as long as his offensive line keeps him clean, Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard, and Isaiah Horton should feast downfield. On the other side of the ball, Kane Wommack’s unit had its best performance in a year and a half against a mobile QB, but those two timely takeaways are going a long way to mask 6.39 yards per play allowed and an 11 percent explosive rush rate.
2. No. 7 Indiana vs. No. 3 Oregon UNDER 53.5 (-110)
Indiana faced two ranked teams last season, Ohio State and Notre Dame, and both games went under this total. Now, I admit that with Fernando Mendoza, whom I view as the third-best quarterback in the country behind Oregon’s Dante Moore and Ty Simpson, the Indiana offense is capable of more than it was a year ago. However, this is about Curt Cignetti’s mindset against elite competition.
For all his bravado, Cignetti turns into a bit of a committee manipulator in big spots. He slowed to pace to run just 64 plays against the Buckeyes, including a methodical 15-play 75-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter that took 7:03 minutes, which eliminated any chance of a comeback, but made the score look more respectable. Against Notre Dame, the Hoosiers ran 63 plays, which would rank 120th in the country for pace this season.
I think Oregon wins, but Indiana finds a way to slow the game down and preserve its case as a College Football Playoff contender.
3. Arkansas vs No. 12 Tennessee 1st half team total OVER 20.5 (-115)
All five of Tennessee’s games this season have gone over the total, the Volunteers have yet to score fewer than 41 points, and Arkansas just handed Bobby Petrino the interim tag. Petrino cleaned house on his defensive staff, but that won’t be enough to fix a unit that ranks 123rd in the country in net EPA/drive, 125th in early-down EPA/play, and is allowing a 9.6 percent explosive pass rate.
Tennessee has Alabama on deck next week, so I could see Josh Heupel calling off the dogs late if this game gets out of hand, so I tend to favor the first-half team total rather than the full-game number, but you could talk me into either one.
4. No. 21 Arizona State vs Utah OVER 45.5 (-105)
You may not think of Utah as an over team, and it is just 3-2 in its games this season, but with new offensive coordinator Jason Beck, the Utes rank fifth in the country in pace, tied with the Arizona State Sun Devils. The over is actually 1-4 in Arizona State’s games this season, but with star wide receiver Jordan Tyson and one of the best scrambling quarterbacks in the country in Sam Leavitt, facing a man-coverage heavy defense, I expect this one to go back-and-forth.
Devon Dampier struggled in his biggest game of the season, with Texas Tech in town, but he was injured coming into that game, and his vaunted offensive line couldn’t block the Red Raiders. They will, however, be able to block it up against Arizona State’s defense enough to put some points on the board.
5. No. 15 Michigan +118 vs USC
The wrong team is favored in this game. Yes, it’s a tough travel spot for a true freshman quarterback, but USC got bullied by Illinois in its only real test of the season. The Illini should have won more comfortably if it weren’t for two goalline fumbles, and Michigan’s run game is much better than Illinois’s.
Bryce Underwood has been rounding into form. He had his best performance of the year against Wisconsin last week. However, Sherrone Moore won’t even need him to be great because USC’s run defense ranks 123rd in success rate. Until USC proves that it's physical enough to play Midwest football, then I’m not going to trust Lincoln Riley’s team.
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