Last Saturday may have been the best slate that we’re going to get all season. So, it’s no surprise that this weekend doesn’t quite measure up. Still, it didn’t help that Florida State, in classic Florida State fashion, went into Charlottesville last Friday and took some of the pop out of its Week 6 matchup against No. 3 Miami with an upset loss to Virginia.
Now, the spotlight, at least the one that College Gameday shines, is pointed towards Tuscaloosa, not Tallahassee, as Diego Pavia looks to make it two in a row against the Crimson Tide. I, of course, have bets for those two marquee matchups and three other picks to round out your college football betting card for Week 6.
All listed betting odds are subject to change
1. No. 3 Miami vs. No. 18 Florida State OVER 53.5 (-112)
In a lot of ways, Tommy Castellanos is the perfect quarterback for Mike Norvell. Neither man is interested in just keeping the game close. Castellanos is going to let it rip, and Norvell is going to let him because in their minds, a two-point loss and a 20-point loss count the same.
Florida State cannot match Miami in the trenches, so its best bet is to turn this into a tennis match, with points back-and-forth all night in Tallahassee. Gus Malzahn’s offense, third in the country by EPA/drive, which plays at the 18th fastest pace, is equipped for it, and Shannon Dawson’s unit on the other side, ranking 33rd in plays per game and 25th in EPA/per drive, may get sucked in. And the Hurricanes could still win that game.
Defensively, Miami’s first-year defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman has the bodies to get pressure with a four-man rush, but still has one of the highest blitz rates in the country. All three of Castellanos’s interceptions have come against the blitz this season, including both against Virginia in the Seminoles’s Week 5 loss. I wouldn’t expect many punts in this one. Let’s just hope Mario Cristobal doesn’t let off the gas in the fourth quarter.
2. No. 16 Vanderbilt vs No. 10 Alabama OVER 28.5 1st half (+104)
There wasn’t anything fluky about Vanderbilt’s upset win over Alabama last year. The Alabama defense could not handle the Commodores’ play-action-heavy, quarterback-run-centric offensive style, so Diego Pavia hung 40 points on them. Then, Jackson Arnold did the same thing late in the year, and Tommy Castellanos did it to start this season. Kane Wommack’s defense has no answers for this type of offense, and I don’t expect him to have found them this week.
Conversely, Alabama cannot run the ball. The Tide rank 130th in rushing success rate, and if you want to know why Ryan Grubb isn’t still in the NFL, there’s your answer. Yet, Ty Simpson has been good enough to make it a moot point. Now, he’ll have the good fortune of facing a pass defense that ranks 88th in EPA/dropback and 83rd in success rate despite facing Kyron Drones and one half of LaNorris Sellers, two run-first QBs, in their only Power 4 matchups.
Ultimately, I don’t think Vanderbilt can keep pace with Simpson and Alabama’s wide receivers, so the game script may get wonky in the second half, but we should have already cashed by then.
3. Boise State vs. No. 21 Notre Dame: ND team total over 42.5 (-105)
With two losses already on its ledger and zero upcoming games against ranked opponents, Notre Dame needs style points to make the College Football Playoff. After last week’s 56-13 win over Arkansas with a fake-punt first down in the third quarter, it’s clear that Marcus Freeman understands that. It’s also clear that the Broncos aren’t nearly the same team without Ashton Jeanty.
Though the Notre Dame defense is problematic, I don’t trust the Broncos to hold up their end of the bargain to bet the over. I also don’t trust the Notre Dame defense enough to take the Irish and lay three touchdowns. That led me to the obvious solution of betting the Notre Dame team total over for the second straight week, this time against a defense that ranks 123rd in the country in EPA/rush. Maybe sprinkle a little something on Jeremiyah Love’s Heisman odds, too. He may not win it, but you’re not going to get a better price after Saturday.
4. Kansas -4.5 (-105) vs. UCF
I think we all know that North Carolina might be the worst Power Four team in the country, but I’m not sure that fact has settled into the evaluation of Scott Frost’s 3-1 start in his return to UCF. The defensive numbers look good for UCF so far, ranking 9th in defensive EPA/play, but that’s buoyed by wins over Jacksonville State, North Carolina A&T, and Bill Belichick’s failed experiment in Chapel Hill. Now, Jalon Daniels is coming to town off a shootout loss to Cincinnati, and the Knights’ defense will quickly crash back down to earth.
Daniels ranks second in the country in EPA/dropback at 0.48, and the Kansas offense ranks third in offensive net EPA/play, despite struggling to run the ball. This could be a get-right spot for that aspect of the Jayhawks’ attack, too, because UCF’s run defense is one of the worst in the country. I think this should be a 6.5-point line in Kansas’ favor, so I’ll take my two-point edge and hope we cash on the road.
5. Mississippi State +15.5 (-108) vs. No. 6 Texas A&M
The SEC is still the deepest league in college football. In fact, this year, it’s deeper than ever. But the separation between the top and the bottom of the conference might be as slim as ever. Mississippi State is massively improved in Year 2 under Jeff Lebby and nearly made a massive statement with an upset win over Tennessee in Starkville last week. The Bulldogs fell just short, and there was an EPA/play discrepancy that indicates that Tennessee should have won by more, but by success rate, Lebby’s group had the edge. Frankly, I’m not certain that any SEC team is more than two touchdowns better than Mississippi State.
Auburn’s defense is elite, but Jackson Arnold was helpless to punch back against the Aggies. I’d say that performance said more about Arnold than it did the Aggies, and I’d bet that Fluff Bothwell and Blake Shapen have considerably more success at Kyle Field this week.
Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets and see a full betting record HERE