We’ve made it. The first round of the College Football Playoff is finally here. We can finally stop arguing about whether or not two Group of Six teams should have been allowed in the field or Miami vs. Notre Dame, and get to the action. Though, because two G6 teams are playing this weekend, that may not be all fun and games either.
There’s a real chance we get a couple of blowouts, though we did last year and in the four-team era, too. So, maybe placing a few responsible wagers will help to make the late games on Saturday a bit more interesting. The Friday night matchup in Norman and Saturday afternoon showdown in College Station don’t need the stakes to be raised.
Last year, all four home teams won in the first round. Was that because home field is that important, or because the lower seeds weren’t quite a punchy as this season’s crop? We’ll find out this weekend. I’m betting we don’t see home teams go 4-0 this time around.
All listed betting odds are subject to change
1. Alabama moneyline (-102) vs. Oklahoma
Yes, Oklahoma has the best defense in the country, and yes, Alabama is limping into the CFP. However, we’ve seen this matchup before, and a few weeks ago in Tuscaloosa, Ty Simpson and the Crimson Tide went for 406 total yards of offense, and the Sooners didn’t have a single drive of greater than 50 yards the entire day.
Simpson has had his struggles against the blitz, and they were exacerbated by the injuries on Alabama’s offense in the SEC Championship Game. So, Brent Venables will be licking his chops and may just find a way to force turnovers to set up short field again. Especially with this game in Norman, which could force Alabama to use a silent count and give Oklahoma’s pass rush yet another advantage against a shaky offensive line. But if he doesn’t? What happens if Oklahoma is forced to drive the full field? I don’t know if it can.
Oklahoma’s offense is 117th in the country in Net EPA/Drive and managed a 33 percent success rate in Week 12. I have a hard time backing that team.
2. Miami vs. Texas A&M OVER 48 (-110)
Texas A&M’s schedule featured the bottom five teams in the SEC, along with the 10th-place finisher, LSU. Texas was the only team on the Aggies’ conference schedule to finish with a winning record in SEC play, and the Longhorns rolled to a 27-17 win in Austin.
Mike Elko’s defense has been excellent on third down this year, and the second-year head coach has a deep bag of exotic late-down blitzes that he can dust off to rattle Carson Beck. However, you can’t help but notice the discrepancy in A&M’s defensive performances against good and bad offenses. In its five games against teams that finished top 50 in adjusted EPA/play, Texas A&M allowed 29 points per game, and in the other seven games, it allowed 16.9 points per game. Miami ranks 31st.
I think both of these offenses can score in this game, and I also know that both of these quarterbacks can turn the ball over to set up short fields for their counterpart, so the over is my best bet here.
3. Tulane vs. Ole Miss -17.5 (-105)
We already saw this game. But, unlike Alabama/Oklahoma, there was no turnover luck to tip the scales. The right team won, and won handily. Ole Miss cruised to a 45-10 win in Week 4, and held Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff to 56 yards on 5-for-17 passing.
I don’t expect the Tulane offense to be quite so wretched in the rematch, but that doesn’t mean the Tulane defense will have a chance. The Green Wave rank 110th in defensive success rate, and with Charlie Weis back to call the plays for the Rebels, I don’t think they’ll miss Lane Kiffin all that much in Round 1.
4. James Madison vs. Oregon UNDER 47.5 (-105)
I view Oregon as a legitimate national championship contender, and I don’t feel that way about Ole Miss, even aside from the Kiffin of it all. However, if either of the games featuring Group of Six teams is going to be close, I bet it’ll be this one. Part of that analysis is that Oregon is still banged up on the offensive side and likely won’t feel the need to keep the throttle down while Ole Miss is hunting catharsis as much as a championship.
The other aspect of that, though, is James Madison’s run defense. JMU can stop the run, and though it only played one Power 4 opponent all season, it held Louisville to a 41 percent success rate on the ground and a 36 percent success rate overall. Oregon’s offensive line is better than Louisville’s, which was a sneaky big problem for the Cardinals this year, but I think the disciplined run fits of Bob Chesney’s defense will shine through.
Oregon should still win, and I’m not sure if JMU can score at all, but the Dukes' defense will throw a few punches in this one. That might be all it takes to keep this under the total.
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