The Big Ten has put three teams through to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, and if you ask me, they’re the three best teams in the country. We can try to extrapolate trends from last year’s College Football Playoff, with all four teams that received first-round byes losing in the quarterfinals, but that was seeding nonsense that the CFP fixed this year. The trend I want to follow is Big Ten supremacy.
I have all three Big Ten teams advancing through to the CFP semifinals, but for this quarterfinal slate, I prefer betting totals. So, here are my best bets for the CFP quarters on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.
All listed betting odds are subject to change
1. Miami team total UNDER 15.5 (-105) vs. Ohio State
When you look at the splits, there’s quite a chasm between Carson Beck against bad defenses and Carson Beck against good defenses. Now, Carson Beck gets to play one of the best defenses, certainly the best he’s played this year.
Miami ran the ball well against the Texas A&M defense, but Mike Elko’s unit isn’t nearly as stout as Matt Patricia’s up the middle, and the Aggies tend to play a boom or bust style along the defensive line, jumping gaps and trying to knife into the backfield to create negative plays. Ohio State doesn’t need to do that. The Buckeyes get enough tackles for loss playing straight up, and they’ll stonewall a Miami run game that ranks 105th in EPA/play for the season with a putrid five percent explosive rush rate.
That puts everything on Beck’s shoulders, and while he’s been better this year, he’s best when he knows what to expect from a defense and can fire with anticipation into open windows on the back end. The Buckeyes disguise coverages as much and as well as any team in the country. So, I think it’ll be a struggle for the Hurricanes to put points on the board.
2. Texas Tech 1st half team total UNDER 12.5 (-110) vs. Oregon
The Texas Tech offense has been fairly prolific, but often that’s in spite of itself. The Red Raiders have run up the score on much of the Big 12 this season, but have done so with the 96th-ranked red zone touchdown percentage. Joey McGuire’s team is converting just 56.16 percent of its trips inside the opponent's 20-yard line into six points, and those trips won’t come quite so often against an Oregon defense that ranks eighth in the country in net EPA/drive.
Texas Tech can absolutely win this football game. David Bailey, Lee Hunter, AJ Holmes, and Romello Height are that good along the defensive line. However, I suspect that they’ll need turnovers to do it, and that Dan Lanning and offensive coordinator Will Stein will be careful not to put the ball in harm’s way, at least early on.
3. Alabama vs. Indiana OVER 47.5 (-115)
The Indiana defense hasn’t given up much to anyone this season, including Ohio State. However, Alabama may be a uniquely difficult matchup for the Hoosiers because of its reliance on three wide receiver sets and total lack of a run game.
Nobody has been able to run the ball on the Hoosiers this season. Their three linebackers fit the run far too well to give up much on the ground, especially between the tackles. Likewise, Alabama hasn’t been able to run the ball at all this season. So, Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb may not even try, and that’s the best gameplan they could have. Bombs away with Ty Simpson against a defense that lives and dies with heavy personnel.
Then, on the other side, it’s the Heisman Trophy winner. I feel good about getting to watch some points get scored as the sun sets in Pasadena.
4. Ole Miss vs. Georgia UNDER 56.5 (-110)
When these two teams met in the regular season, Georgia scored on all eight of its possessions before kneeling out a 43-35 win. So what exactly makes me think that this game will go under the 56.5 point total?
Well, the Georgia offense hasn’t looked particularly great in its last two games, including a 28-7 SEC Championship win over Alabama. Gunner Stockton has struggled throwing the ball against zone defenses all year. Defenses know that, and have played more shell zone coverages, keeping a lid on the offense with two deep safeties. Georgia has been fine because it’s run the ball very successfully.
Running the ball is a great formula against an Ole Miss defense that ranks 132nd in defensive EPA/rush and 130th in rushing success rate, but that will keep the clock churning. I think this is a low-possession game, and I think that the Georgia defense is a whole different beast than it was in Week 8.
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