The 12-team College Football Playoff was created to give more teams a chance (and rake in more TV dollars), and so far it’s accomplishing both goals. Ratings are up, and so are the rankings of the teams playing for a spot in the national championship. On Thursday night, No. 6 Ole Miss will face No. 10 Miami in the Fiesta Bowl, and on Friday, No. 1 Indiana and No. 5 Oregon meet again in the Peach Bowl after a regular-season showdown in Eugene.
In the 12-team CFP, every (Power 4) team has a chance, and that includes the one that Lane Kiffin thought didn’t. So, let’s break down this week’s semifinals and start with Pete Golding’s Rebels and their budding superstar quarterback.
All listed betting odds are subject to change
1. Miami 1st half -1.5 (-110) vs. Ole Miss
Trinidad Chambliss was an absolute magician in the Sugar Bowl against Georgia, averaging nearly 11 yards per attempt on pressured dropbacks. However, he was only pressured eight times by a toothless Georgia pass rush that needed to blitz constantly. Now, he’ll head into the Fiesta Bowl against maybe the best combination of edge rushers in the country in Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor.
I expected Ole Miss and Charlie Weis Jr.’s offense to play fast to try and tire out that Miami D-line, but in the first half, when they have their legs, I think it’s advantage Hurricanes. Chambliss tighrope walked his way to victory last time out, and it’s a lot easier to slip when you have 1st-round talent chasing after you.
I think the Rebels can make this a game and even win it in the second half, but early on, I think Mario Cristobal is intentional about controlling pace and possession against the 130th-ranked run defense by success rate in the country. Give me Miami in the first half as my best bet.
2. Oregon vs. Indiana -3.5 (-112)
It’s hard to say Indiana is still underrated. The Hoosiers are the No. 1 team in the country and over a field goal favorite in the College Football Playoff Semifinal. But Indiana is still underrated. The Hoosiers already met Oregon once, and if it wasn’t for a Fernando Mendoza pick-six, Oregon would’ve lost by more than 10 at home.
The Oregon defense did a good job against Mendoza in Round 1, but Indiana’s defense was on another level. They’ll be tested without Stephen Daley for the Peach Bowl, but they’re just such a bad matchup for Oregon, as they were for Ohio State.
Both Oregon and Ohio State’s offenses killed teams all season with 12 personnel. Bringing two tight ends onto the field forces defenses into a bind. Do you get big to stop the run game or stay small to limit explosive passes? Well, Indiana lives in a base 4-3 defense with linebackers who are elite at fitting the run, while managing to get enough depth on their coverage drops to allow Haines to put an umbrella on the offense with a two-high safety structure. The ground Aiden Fisher, Rolijah Hardy, and Isaiah Jones cover is ridiculous.
With linebackers like that, the defense isn’t in conflict from 12 personnel. Instead, it’s an advantage because the offense is playing with just two wide receivers. Against Ohio State, that meant rolled zones towards Jeremiah Smith and a steady diet of bracket coverage. Against Oregon, that’ll mean special attention for Kenyon Sadiq and help over the top on Dakorien Moore.
Oh, and then you have the Heisman Trophy winner on the other side, too. Yeah, I think I’ll take that team.
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