An unlikely suspect has now emerged as a potential College Football Playoff contender, and that's not a good thing for the SEC and Big Ten.
Both the SEC and Big Ten are already beginning to count just how many teams they might can stuff into the sport's first ever 12-team playoff. Coming into the year, there was an expectation that the two conferences would dominate the committee's selections when the time came, and the AP rankings seem to be indicating that this will continue to be the case.
Currently, the SEC has four teams firmly in contention — Georgia, Texas, Texas A&M, and Tennessee — with a few others not completely out of the mix in Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, and Missouri. The Big Ten also has four teams squarely in the thick of the postseason race — Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, and Indiana — with a fringe team in Illinois.
Once you include the automatic qualifiers — the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12 champions, as well as the highest-ranked Group of 5 team — there are seven spots remaining for at-large bids. Both the SEC and Big Ten are already starting to count how many at-large berths they might be able to snag and, with the emergence of Notre Dame, there's already potential for one less spot in the postseason.
However, there is a nightmare scenario for these conferences where one — or multiple — of their two-loss teams don't get into the College Football Playoff and all of their 9-3 teams are left for dead. It involves the SMU Mustangs.
Coming into this year, no one truly believed that SMU would be sitting in a three-way tie for first in the ACC, but here they are. If the Mustangs find a way to keep winning, they could pose a problem to teams like Alabama, which is already behind the eight-ball, and other teams in the SEC or Big Ten that lose in November.
Here's the scenario where this matters:
Let's say that SMU, Clemson, and Miami all win their remaining games. SMU would be sitting at 11-1, Clemson at 11-1, and Miami at 12-0. Under these circumstances since none of the teams played each other, the two teams that would go to the ACC Championship would be determined by conference opponent winning percentage. For reference, Clemson and Miami hold a slight advantage over SMU in that category right now, but no games in November have been played yet.
So, what happens if SMU and Miami go to the ACC Championship game and Clemson is left at home because of some crazy tiebreaker? Then, let's take it a step further: What if SMU wins the ACC Championship? You'd have a scenario where the Mustangs would be automatically. Then, you'd have a 12-1 Miami team that just lost in the ACC Championship and an 11-1 Clemson team, which would have wins over Virginia Tech, Pitt, and South Carolina to close out the year.
I don't see how you could leave out one-loss Clemson, whose only loss would've come at the beginning of the season to a top-five Georgia team, and it's not fault of the Tigers that they didn't get a chance to play in Charlotte because of the weird tiebreaker scenario.
And, I'm not sure how you could leave out Miami, who went undefeated in the regular season and would likely be sitting inside the top-4 of the College Football Playoff rankings heading into conference championship weekend.
If that unfolded, you'd have a controversy unlike any other. Could the ACC actually get three teams into the College Football Playoff? On the surface, that sounds crazy, but if you dig a little deeper, it might just be the nightmare scenario for the SEC and Big Ten's hope of stacking teams in the playoff.
SMU plays host to No. 18 Pittsburgh this weekend at 8 p.m. on the ACC Network. Clemson will be back in action after an idle week to host Louisville, and Miami will host the Duke Blue Devils this weekend.