The race for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft just got a whole lot more interesting. Just a week ago, Miami quarterback Cam Ward seemed like the runaway favorite to go first overall. Now? His odds have taken a hit, and there's a new contender making waves—Penn State's star edge rusher Abdul Carter.
The Changing Landscape of the No. 1 Pick
Cam Ward is still the frontrunner, but his grip on the top spot isn’t as firm as it once was. A week ago, sportsbooks had him sitting comfortably at -210. Now, his odds have lengthened to +105, making room for serious challengers. Tennessee Titans president of football operations Chad Brinker recently made waves when he said the team wouldn't pass up a "generational talent" with the first pick. That comment alone shook up the odds, allowing other names to rise in the ranks.
For a brief moment, Colorado's Travis Hunter—who won the 2024 Heisman Trophy—became the second favorite at +150. But now, there's a new No. 2 on the board, and his name is Abdul Carter.
Abdul Carter’s Meteoric Rise
Abdul Carter, a dominant edge rusher from Penn State, has skyrocketed to +180 odds to be the first overall pick. His 2024 campaign was nothing short of spectacular—racking up 12 sacks and 24 tackles for loss in 16 games. Over his three-year college career, Carter has accumulated 23 sacks, 41 tackles for loss, and five forced fumbles.
His standout play helped the Nittany Lions reach the College Football Playoff semifinals, and NFL scouts have taken notice. The Titans, who desperately need an elite pass rusher, could see Carter as the perfect fit. Tennessee's defense averaged just 1.9 sacks per game last season, ranking among the league's worst. With veteran Harold Landry carrying a massive cap hit of over $24 million in 2025, a younger, cheaper, and highly talented player like Carter could be too good to pass up.
Other Notable Shifts in the Odds
While Carter's surge has been the biggest storyline, he's not the only player making noise. Travis Hunter, who was previously the second favorite, has dropped to No. 3 at +250. Meanwhile, Shedeur Sanders, Colorado's star quarterback, has seen his odds lengthen to +800 after skipping Shrine Bowl activities at the request of several top teams, including the Titans, Browns, and Giants.
Here’s where things currently stand in the odds race for the No. 1 overall pick:
- Cam Ward (Miami QB) - +105
- Abdul Carter (Penn State Edge) - +180
- Travis Hunter (Colorado DB/WR) - +250
- Shedeur Sanders (Colorado QB) - +800
- Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss QB) - +6600
- Quinn Ewers (Texas QB) - +8000
- Will Campbell (LSU OT) - +8000
- Jalen Milroe (Alabama QB) - +8000
With the draft still months away, there's plenty of time for these odds to shift even further. The NFL Combine, Pro Days, and private workouts will all play a role in determining which player ultimately hears his name called first. While quarterbacks traditionally dominate the top of the draft, Abdul Carter is proving that an elite edge rusher can shake things up.