3 bold predictions: No. 9 Oregon versus Oregon State

Week 3 of the college football season brings us one of the most played rivalry games in the sport’s history, Oregon vs Oregon State. A match that’s been dubbed the Civil War since 1929, has been played 127 times overall — making the game the fifth most contested matchup ever! 

With that said, during this span, never have these two schools played each other in September, until now. Rather, traditionally this game has been played near season’s end in November, with a few exceptions taking place in October and December. 

For college football traditionalists, seeing this matchup commence so early in the season could be frustrating. However, at least the historical in-state contest is still being played — looking at you Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (There are no plans for the Bedlam Series to continue since the departure of Oklahoma from the Big 12).

Wondering why the drastic scheduling change? You can thank good ole conference realignment for that. When the Ducks left their in-state brethren behind for greener pastures — a move to the B10 — scheduling reconfiguration was inevitable. 

But whilst the Ducks only had to jostle its three non-conference games around — with the Beavers now being one of those games — OSU had to figure out how they’d find 8 more schools to play, other than fellow conference member Washington State and the non-conference foes that had already been scheduled. 

That’s right, 8 games, because the mighty Pac 12 — once known as the Conference of Champions — had been relegated to the Pac 2. Not only did the Ducks leave the West Coast’s preeminent conference, but so did nine other schools. Needless to say, part of collegiate athletics died with these monetary decisions, but I digress. 

Ultimately, Oregon State and Washington State struck a deal with the Mountain West — similar to that of Notre Dame’s agreement with the ACC — for this season to fill out its’ schedules. Thus, here we are in September gearing up for the Civil War -- intersectional style -- between Oregon and Oregon State.

So without further ado, here are three bold predictions for this bad blooded rivalry from Corvallis. 

The Ducks will Score 35+ Points

On the surface, it may not seem that bold to pick a Ducks’ squad led by Heisman hopeful Dillon Gabriel to score 35 or more points. I mean, Oregon just accomplished that feat last week against Boise State — scoring 37 in a slim three-point victory. 

However, if you dig deeper into the numbers, you’d notice that 14 of those points came from special teams — the Ducks took both a punt and kickoff return for touchdowns. It was incredible to watch, but extremely unlikely to happen again this week. 

Thus, the offense has to be more consistent against the Beavers or another upset bid might be in the cards. With that said, it feels like it’s just a matter of time before Oregon gets its offense humming on a possession-by-possession basis, hence my prediction for the Ducks to give the scoreboard a workout this weekend. 

Success in football starts in the trenches, and that’s where I believe we’ll see the biggest improvement from Oregon’s offense this weekend. Having to replace multiple interior linemen is difficult to deal with, and growing pains were to be expected. 

Against Oregon State, however, I believe Gabriel will get better protection from his offensive line. Fewer sacks mean fewer drive-killers. In turn, Gabriel and his skill players out wide and in the backfield will have more chances to sustain drives and score points.

And when given time, well, we’ve seen just how explosive Oregon can be — Gabriel completed passes of 67, 59, and 34 yards last week. 

The Ducks Defense will Hold OSU to Under 20 Points

Dan Lanning’s Oregon defense allowed 34 points last week to Boise. It was the fourth time in the past 16 games that the Ducks allowed 30 points or more in a game — two of those four occasions came against CFP representative Washington last season. 

Conversely, in the other 12 games during this span, Oregon has allowed a paltry 12 points per game — the Ducks allowed just seven points against OSU in 2023. 

Therefore, I’m counting on a Ducks “D”, lead by former five-star recruits Jordan Burch (DE) and Dontae Manning (DB), according to 247Sports Composite, to get this unit back to its typical standards of holding opponents to meager scoring totals.

Oregon State must be able to run the ball -- as Ashton Jeanty did last week to the tune of 192 yards and three touchdowns -- in order to have a chance of competing in this fixture.

And unlike Jeanty, who is perhaps the best running back in the country and the current favorite to win the Doak Walker Award, the Beavers will be rolling out Jam Griffin at tailback — a sixth-year collegiate player who is still trying to make his potential become his reality after disappointing stints with Georgia Tech and Ole Miss.

As for the passing game, OSU failed to impress last season with former five-star quarterback DJ Uiagalelei. What makes you think that Oregon State will be any better this go-round with Idaho transfer Gevani McCoy under center? Thus, I’m taking the Ducks to hold the Beavers to under 20 points. 

Oregon to Cover -16.5 Point Spread (BetMGM)

The Ducks have failed to cover the spread in each of the team's first two matchups of this season — Idaho and Boise State. However, I believe that Oregon will break this mini streak and cover against its’ in-state rivals this weekend. 

As aforementioned, I believe that the O-Line will be much improved this Saturday, resulting in more consistent play offensively — longer sustainable drives and points to back it up. 

In addition, the Ducks defense will be back to its stout standards. Lanning’s star-studded defense will be suffocating, leaving OSU’s McCoy and Griffin searching for a way out of their own end of the field.

Furthermore, the Beavers damn will break, and the Ducks will surf on through to a lopsided victory in round 128 of the Civil War!

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