How much would a Week 1 win mean for the Florida Gators?

Florida’s 2024 football schedule hasn’t even begun, yet people are already declaring death for the program.

This is because of a schedule that is unforgivable by any team’s standard, including a whopping eight opponents that are currently ranked in the AP Top 20 (the highest of which are set to be faced late in the year with not a single bye week in sight).

But hey, at least the Gators will be able to feed on some weaklings early, right? Wrong.

Of Florida’s first three foes, two of them come from the ranked bunch, with its opener being at home against the No. 19 Miami Hurricanes.

The rivalry game has been promoted as being one of the biggest matchups of Week 1, but with all that could be riding on it, I’d say it takes the cake no questions asked.

But what could possibly be “riding on it” that’s so important?

Simply put, this game goes beyond just a rivalry game in a tough spot on the calendar—it has the potential to set the tone of Florida’s entire season, and perhaps play a pivotal role in decisions the team makes regarding its future.

Think about it: One would have to assume the consensus is that the Gators won’t be going bowling this year, as next to the several hopeless games are several more that, while not easy, sit in far grayer areas. Such games include Texas A&M, at Mississippi State, UCF, Kentucky and, of course, Miami.

These teams are so iffy due mainly to their recent performances, as they appear to sit near or above Florida today, with most of them making a bowl in 2023 and having around half of their games land in their win columns.

The only one to finish with less than six wins was MSU, which matched the Gators with five (a lack that having both a new head coach and home-field advantage should do more than makeup for).

This close of competition leads me to believe that the Gators beating one of them would imply they, at least until further notice, have promising odds to beat the others. In other words, a win over Miami could serve as the first of several games to go Florida’s way.

Assuming that happens, let’s take a quick tally of victories here: Miami, A&M, MSU, UCF, and Kentucky. Once you throw in the easy dub over Samford, Florida is officially (though just barely) a bowl team. Therefore, the result against Miami can dictate whether the Gators make the postseason.

With that said, there’s obviously a lot more hanging on this matchup than just a “W” and some bragging rights, but what if I told you that it still has much more to it than you think—so much that it can decide the fate of Florida’s head coach?

Billy Napier can’t afford many more missed opportunities

There’s no denying it: Billy Napier is entering this season on one of the hottest seats in America, as he is at severe risk of tying UF football’s longest streak of losing seasons (4).

If the Gators hit that mark, it would be quite difficult to justify keeping Napier around any longer, even if the failure in question is deemed “more excusable” this time around.

But, thanks to a win over Miami and the path that possibly comes with it, Napier could be staring down a chance to finish with a winning record despite having the toughest schedule in the land. That would certainly be enough to buy him at least one more year in Gainesville, right?

I, for one, would say yes, because heck, if his guys can hit 7-6 with this fall’s schedule, we have to wonder what they could do the fall after with one that’d likely be more manageable.

Now of course, there’s a lot that has to go right for Florida’s season to unfold as described today (most notably the Gators having no dips in performance from their opener onward). However, the fact that the chances of it happening greatly increase just by getting the dub over Miami is nonetheless insane. With that in mind, Week 1 better see UF bring the house down like it never has before.

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