Realistic expectations for Auburn Football in 2024

Head coach Hugh Freeze inherited a 5-7 program and took things a step further by getting Auburn football to a bowl in 2023.

While Freeze could end up being a good fit, especially considering he had success in the SEC at Ole Miss from 2012-16 (multiple nine-plus win seasons) and beat Nick Saban twice, things have been very hazy in Auburn over the past decade.

For context, the Tigers have only been ranked in the AP Top 20 twice since reaching the national title game in 2013. Auburn only has one 10-win season to show for in that span as well. 

So, how can everything turn around?

Let me begin by stating that 2023 was not as bad of a season for Auburn as some may think, and, after all, the Tigers were neck-and-neck with some of the best teams in the country. Auburn was leading Georgia 17-10 in the third quarter before falling 27-20 thanks to a touchdown with under three minutes left. Following a head-scratching home loss to New Mexico State, the Tigers had Alabama practically beat before a heartbreaking fourth-and-31 play. Auburn also only lost to Ole Miss by seven.

This year, the Tigers return 17 starters and should be improved on both sides of the ball. 

Offensively, quarterback Payton Thorne will lead the charge for the second consecutive season following an up-and-down first year. A Michigan State transfer who led the Spartans to an 11-2 season in 2021, Thorne commanded the worst passing offense in the SEC last year and had a lackluster 57.7 QBR to back it up. He will be pushed by talented freshman Walker White and returning backups Holden Geriner and Hank Brown for the starting job.

However, whoever pans out the most under center should see an uptick in production this season. Running back Jarquez Hunter (675 yards/6.5 YPC) is one of the most underrated rushers in the country and should top 1,000 yards in 2024. The offensive line is more experienced and brought in transfers Percy Lewis (Mississippi State) and Ronan Chambers (Akron) to add depth. The wide receiver room will be the most improved unit on the team and should be electric. Transfers KeAndre Lambert-Smith (Penn State) and Robert Lewis (Georgia State) accompany highly-touted freshmen Cam Coleman and Perry Thompson. Tight end Rivaldo Fairweather, who was the leading receiver in 2023, returns as well.

Freeze made a switch at offensive coordinator and hired Derrick Nix, who helped Ole Miss become one of the top offenses in the nation last season, to take on the role, so we should see a more explosive “Freeze-like” offense in 2024. 

Last season the Auburn defense allowed just 23 points per game as opposed to 29.5 the year prior. This year the Tigers bring back eight starters, including star linebackers Jalen McLeod and Eugene Asante. 

Up front, Auburn loses three starters but added four transfers, including Isaiah Raikes (Texas A&M) and Philip Blidi (Indiana), to keep the unit in tact. As mentioned, linebackers McLeod and Asante return and will anchor one of the top linebacker corps in the conference. Throw Duke transfer Dorian Mausi and promising freshman Demarcus Riddick into the mix and it will be difficult getting through that Auburn second level. The secondary will be the soft spot of the defense, but there’s talent with cornerback Keionte Scott and Texas transfer Jerrin Thompson.

This year Auburn draws Georgia, Missouri, and Alabama all on the road, but dodges LSU, Ole Miss, and Texas. The non-conference slate is soft (Alabama A&M, Cal, New Mexico, UL-Monroe), plus the Tigers get Oklahoma and Texas A&M at Jordan-Hare.

If the quarterback position can show improvement and work itself out and Auburn can win one of those close games as an underdog, then the Tigers could make some noise in 2024. The realistic expectation is for Freeze and co. to improve upon last season’s record and reach another bowl game.

With a top-10 recruiting class and a ton of promising young talent coming in, I believe that this program is another year or two away from being a legit SEC title threat. Be patient Auburn fans, your time is coming soon.