Realistic expectations for Iowa football in 2024

Iowa football is coming off another typical season for them winning 10 games and making it to a respectable bowl game. The problem with this cycle they have fallen into is that they beat every team that they should but fail to pull off any big wins that would get them over the hump.

Much of this is due to poor offensive play that has made Kirk Ferentz Iowa Hawkeyes a joke in the college football world despite being an overall solid team. An inability to put points on the board has been a recurring problem in Iowa City that has consistently held a team back that is spectacular on defense and special teams.

The Hawkeyes should see some significant change on the offensive side of the ball in 2024 though. The biggest change is at the offensive coordinator position after Brian Ferentz was not brought back. During Ferentz's seven years as offensive coordinator, their offense was consistently one of the worst in the country in all facets including last season where they finished last in total yards and second to last in points per game.

Replacing Ferentz is Tim Lester who most recently served as a senior analyst for the Green Bay Packers. Prior to that, Lester spent 20 years at the college level as a coach including a stint at Western Michigan as head coach. While at Western Michigan his offense finished in the top-35 in total offense for four consecutive years. What changes Lester is going to bring to Iowa is yet to be seen, but I am sure it will be different and improved from the days of Brian Ferentz. It simply cannot get worse than it was last year.

The Hawkeyes will also get quarterback Cade McNamara back who missed most of last season due to injury. McNamara, who led Michigan to the playoff in 2021, is not the most talented or flashy quarterback but he is a solid starter who can win games. The offense returns nine other starters including tight end Luke Lachey and receiver Kaleb Brown who could be some exciting weapons in a new-look offense.

Per usual Iowa should not have to worry much about the defensive side of the ball. They return nine starters from a unit that ranked fifth in total defense a year ago, and at times would score more points than their offense. Phil Parker who has been their defensive coordinator since 2012 will serve in that role once again this season. Surprisingly, a coordinator who has had as much success as him has not been brought up in head coaching conversations, but that goes to show the emphasis that is put on offense and scoring points in the current state of college football.

With the elimination of the Big Ten divisions, where Iowa was in the West getting an easier slate of games, schedules should get much harder for them in future seasons; but not this year. In 2024 they avoid matchups with Michigan, Penn State, Oregon, and USC and get most of their tougher games at home. The only game on the schedule that I currently see as a for sure loss is at Ohio State.

Iowa should start 4-0, including a win against rival Iowa State, before falling to the Buckeyes. They will then get a big win against Washington at home and follow that up with wins at Michigan State and versus Northwestern. The Hawkeyes will split the following two games with Wisconsin and UCLA before beating Maryland. They'll enter the final week of the season with only two losses in a big rivalry matchup against Nebraska at Kinnick Stadium where they pull out a win.

I believe a revamped offense will help lead Iowa to a 10-2 record in 2024 which should put them near the top of the Big Ten standings and in the conversation of the College Football Playoff.