The 5 lessons the top 5 returning passers in college football can teach us about modern offense

There is more than enough change in college football right now. From massive conference realignment to lawsuits over NIL compensation to a new 12-team College Football Playoff, the landscape of the sport is changing rapidly, but that’s all off the field. On the field, change is the norm. Football has always been in a constant state of innovation with the great offensive pioneers leading the charge. 

Football is a sport of action and reaction, not just on the micro, from movement to movement or down to down, but on the macro level from season to season and even decade to decade. The rhythm typically plays out like this, a fearless and bright new offensive coach either exploits the advantages of a recent rule change or simply discovers a new way to stretch a defense thin. Then defensive geniuses respond, hoping to spoil the offense-du-jour quicker than a bowl of clam chowder left out in the hot sun, and the whole system repeats with a new set of fresh ideas. 

From Pop Warner introducing the single-wing to Bud Wilkinson bringing the no-huddle offense to Oklahoma, to Mike Leach’s air-raid, to Chip Kelly’s spread-option, to Lincoln Riley, Lane Kiffin, Josh Heupel, Steve Sarkisian, and the rest of the offensive masterminds of the modern age, college football has been the breeding ground for football innovation. A creative mind can design a theoretically unstoppable new scheme, but unlike the professionals in the NFL, at the college level, it falls to a 20-something-year-old kid, still worried about passing his marketing final, to execute it. 

As Joey Aguilar and the rest of the Appalachian State quarterback room puts it, “The quarterback has to make everything right.”

The pandemic season in 2020 awarded extra eligibility, so it’s more commonly become 25-year-old young men, but the point still stands. Coaches need to make offenses that don’t just work on paper, but function in the game. So, what does it take to succeed at that position in modern college football, and in the quest for offensive perfection, what can the five most prolific passers from 2023 teach us about the state of modern offense in 2024? 

Naturally, many of the top quarterbacks from last season fled for the NFL, Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix were No. 1 and 2 in passing yards and are now in the NFL, as is No. 5 Jayden Daniels and Georgia Southern’s Davis Brin graduated. That leaves Carson Beck, Seth Henigan, Joey Aguilar, Cam Ward, and Dillon Gabriel as the top 5 returning passers in the country and each can shed an insight into how to construct an effective passing game.

1. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon: Super-seniors usually don’t suck

At Oklahoma in 2023, Gabriel often did “make everything right” for the Sooners. So much so, that Gabriel led OU to a Red River Rivalry win even after his No. 1 receiver Andrel Anthony was lost for the year after making five grabs for 42 yards in that contest. Gabriel threw for 3,655 yards and 30 touchdowns with just six interceptions in his fifth year as a college football starting quarterback, earning his offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby the head coaching job at Mississippi State this offseason. 

With Lebby taking his Josh Heupel-inspired veer-and-shoot power-spread offense to Starkville, Gabriel, who averaged a career-best 9.5 yards per pass attempt, left to replace Bo Nix at Oregon. 

Lebby and Oklahoma used play-action on over half of Gabriel’s dropbacks in RPO-heavy offense and the veteran produced the most play-action passing yards in the country at 2,214 and averaged 11.0 yards per attempt. Those RPOs along with Oklahoma’s incredibly wide formations force linebackers to declare their intentions both before and after the snap. That makes decisions much easier for the quarterback, but even when things were tough, Gabriel excelled. 

Last season, Gabriel finished No. 2 in the country at 10.3 yards per attempt when facing pressure. Only Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels was better. 

Gabriel enters 2024 with 49 collegiate starts under his belt between UCF and Oklahoma, and this will be the southpaw quarterback’s third new offensive system.  

After Kenny Dillingham left for Arizona State after the 2022 season, former Louisville quarterback Will Stein became the OC in Eugene and engineered a spread attack with Bo NIx that produced 4,454 yards and 45 touchdowns through the air. Stein’s QB-friendly offense differs from Lebby’s vertical attack, spreading defenses horizontally to access the space between the numbers where 231 of Nix’s 361 completions (64%) came in 2023, Nix’s fifth year. 

The proof of concept that comes from Nix’s dominance in Stein’s classic spread offensive system with elite playmakers like Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart who will replace Troy Franklin on the outside is a huge reason that Gabriel enters the year as the Heisman Trophy favorite. 

“The conversations on a day-to-day basis are upper-level. It’s like teaching a grad student basic-level algebra,” Stein told Andy Staples this offseason when asked about transitioning from Nix to Gabriel who both began their collegiate careers as freshman starters in 2019. “You think about Bo and the way that he prepared on a daily basis, it was unlike anybody else I’d ever been around, and Dillon has exceeded all expectations in that facet of his game.”

It’s not just that veteran quarterbacks are better, because in many cases they aren’t or they’d be in the NFL. For the college game, it’s that the fifth and sixth-year quarterbacks almost always excel with quick decision-making and anticipation, the characteristics that all of the most prolific passers in the sport share because it allows them to target the most valuable real estate on the field. 

Football at all levels changed when more emphasis was placed on the safety of defenseless receivers. Immediately, those rule changes opened the middle of the field, and now, the foundation of any effective passing offense is the intermediate area between the numbers because it is the toughest part of the field to defend and provides the receivers with the most space once they get the ball in their hands. 

The rules, often the driving force of innovation in football, have helped to fundamentally change the prerequisites to be a successful quarterback. Before, every quarterback needed the horsepower to drive the ball outside the numbers and protect their receivers, now the game has changed. 

“Obviously if you have a great arm that helps and an ability to make plays off schedule, but I feel like those ,kind of, come second to anticipation, accuracy, and leadership,” Henigan said. 

Proof of the changing prerequisites for the position lies in the flawed evaluation process that forced many of these prolific passers to take unorthodox journeys through college football. Henigan was a three-star recruit who took over as the starter at Memphis in his true freshman season, as did Gabriel at UCF, but success didn’t find Cam Ward and Joey Aguilar so quickly. 

Ward was a zero-star recruit out of West Columbia, Texas, who before transferring to Washington State, put up over 4,500 passing yards at FCS Incarnate Word in 2021. A similarly overlooked recruit, Joey Aguilar spent two years at Diablo Valley Community College before losing a fall camp QB battle at App State. For Aguilar, like Henigan at Memphis, injury opened the door. 

2. Seth Henigan, Memphis: Attacking the middle

After taking over as a true freshman, the rising senior has spent his three years as the starter at Memphis mastering throwing over the middle. 

In 2023, Henigan threw for 3,883 yards and 32 touchdowns with just nine interceptions and 62.9% of his attempts came between the numbers. However, unlike other quarterbacks who rely heavily on play-action or extreme wide receiver splits to manipulate linebackers and create space in that part of the field, Henigan, the son of a coach and former collegiate quarterback, does it the old-school way, with his eyes. 

“I feel like it just comes with reps. You’re able to learn how to move linebackers in certain ways,” Henigan said, “playing a lot of snaps helps you be able to learn how to master moving people with your eyes. I’ve always had an acute knowledge of the quarterback position because I’ve played it my whole life, even at a younger age I understood that I need to manipulate defenders in order to throw certain balls and stay on time.” 

For all five of these returning quarterbacks, timing is key. Each posted an average time to throw of under 2.40 seconds when kept clean that season with Beck getting rid of the ball in just 2.39 seconds on all of his dropbacks. There is a clear directive for even the best college football quarterbacks to get the ball out of their hands. When kept clean, Henigan completed 71.0% of his throws and averaged 8.5 yards per attempt.

Though, he didn’t always play that way. In Year 1 at Memphis taking over as a true freshman, he and former offensive coordinator Kevin Johns utilized play-action on 32% of his dropbacks in an RPO-heavy scheme, but even the RPO, a fairly recent addition to common football vernacular, has already started to go out of style. 

“The RPO was a good fad for a couple of years, and it’s still pretty relevant.” Henigan continued, “Pure drop back, I feel like, is one of my strong suits and something that my coordinator has the confidence in me that I can take advantage of the defense.” 

"“The RPO was a good fad for a couple of years, and it’s still pretty relevant.” Henigan continued, “Pure drop back, I feel like, is one of my strong suits and something that my coordinator has the confidence in me that I can take advantage of the defense.” "

- Seth Henigan, Memphis QB

Heningan’s current coordinator is Tim Cramsey, who took over in 2022. Cramsey played at New Hampshire in the 90s when Chip Kelly was on the coaching staff, but despite having roots back to one of the patriarchs of the spread option, Henigan and Cramsey employed play-action on just 24% of his dropbacks in their first year together, and then 19% last season, Henigan’s most prolific. 

Memphis doesn’t need the formational and scheme investments that come with an RPO and play-action heavy offense because their quarterback is experienced enough to execute without it. That’s especially advantageous in pure-passing scripts late in games when play-action isn’t an option. That could be the same reason the Miami Hurricanes were so desperate to add Cam Ward from Washington State this offseason. 

3. Cam Ward, Miami (FL): Off-schedule creation adds explosives

Miami lost four one-score games en route to a 7-6 season and with an immobile Tyler Van Dyke at quarterback, lacked the second-reaction playmaking and offensive creativity to elevate a talented roster. 

In a true air-raid system at Washington State, Ward threw for 3,735 yards and 25 touchdowns last season on 485 attempts. His arrival in Coral Gables will let second-year offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson, a Dana Holgorsen disciple, live out his air-raid fantasies. 

Though, as head coach Mario Cristobal told reporters at ACC Kickoff back in July, it won’t be an exclusively air-raid attack. Ward, who only utilized play-action on 16.2% of his dropbacks last year, could see that rate increase while playing for a former offensive tackle. 

It's a perfect marriage because you are looking at very high football IQ guys that continue to evolve,” Cristobal said of Ward and Dawson. “There are passing principles that relate to the air raid, but there's also five, six, and seven-man protection and play action. Schematically stuff that is more towards a power spread team as well as a very efficient and powerful run game that we've also put together."

Perfecting that marriage, not just between the coaching staff and quarterback, but also between multiple schemes and influences is the ethos of modern offense. 

Like Henigan, Ward is excellent at attacking the middle of the field, last year he completed 70.7% of his 58 intermediate throws between the numbers for 789 yards and five touchdowns. He has the anticipation and accuracy that Henigan referenced, but what makes him special, is pairing that with the arm strength and “ability to make plays off schedule.” 

When pressured in 2023, Ward made some special plays like that one, but his completion percentage dropped below 50% and in holding onto the ball for an average of 4.33 seconds, he was sacked 42 times or on 24.3% of his pressured dropbacks. The Washington State air-raid system asked him to be that type of creator if his first read wasn’t there, but Cristobal is looking to protect his quarterback, and his best chance at winning an ACC title, much more. 

Cristobal’s conservative nature can prevent mistakes from Ward early in games and Ward’s fearless can win it late, thriving in an offense built on the best of air-raid, but infused with the under-center play-action and heavy formations of the modern NFL. 

So, if Henigan’s lack of reliance on play-action deserves praise, why is Miami increasing Ward’s play-action usage? Well, let’s look to Boone, North Carolina for the answer. 

4. Joey Aguilar, Appalachian State: Real play-action takes elite anticipation

In 2023, Joey Aguilar, a JUCO transfer who lost the fall camp QB battle at Appalachian State, threw for 3,757 yards and 33 touchdowns, and that came with the eighth most play-action attempts in the country. 

While Henigan often accessed the middle of the field from straight dropbacks, Aguilar was even more prolific between the numbers with the help of a run-fake. Still, both QBs agree on the most important attributes for the position. 

“I’d say definitely accuracy, decision-making, and anticipation,” Aguilar said, “If you have a big arm, but don’t have any of that, there’s no use for it honestly.”

"“I’d say definitely accuracy, decision-making, and anticipation... If you have a big arm, but don’t have any of that, there’s no use for it honestly.”"

- Joey Aguilar, Appalachian State QB

Without the biggest arm, Aguilar’s first pass attempt of the season, after replacing injured starter Ryan Burger was a 32-yard touchdown. He finished the year No. 1 in the country in intermediate pass attempts in the country last season or throws from 10-19, and No. 1 in first downs converted on those throws. A big reason for that success is his trust in his receivers. 

“It comes with knowing the play.” Aguilar said, “Our receivers know the coverages as well, so they know what’s going to be open what area is going to be closed, where they need to move to, and where they need to sit. Once we’re all on the same page like that, and throughout the season, we all clicked on that as well. Once we got that gelled together, it was over with.”

Knowing where your receivers are going to be becomes that much more important when you’re turning your back to the defense on nearly 40% of your dropbacks. Unlike the RPO-based schemes that Henigan called a “fad,” App State’s offense with offensive coordinator Frank Ponce marries a wide-zone running game with hard play-action fakes, like a Kyle Shanahan offense, but tailored to the college game. 

“RPO is a lot easier because obviously, your eyes are straight downfield as you’re reading the play, but play-action as we do, it just takes practice,” Aguilar admitted, like Henigan, throwing shade at what has been considered a quarterback cheat code. “We play action and then immediately turn around and try to find the free safety, and wherever he’s at, we do the opposite.”

That trust doesn’t just allow Aguilar to excel with play-action where he racked up over 1,500 yards passing and 19 of his 33 passing touchdowns, but it also allows him to take what the defense is giving him and allow his receivers to make a play. 

Aguilar and Ponce often talk about, “making the easy passes the easy passes,” Aguilar said, “A five-yard pass might break for 50 yards and a 20-yard pass might sit at 20.”

It may not be surprising that a player who was forced to start his career at Diablo Valley Community College understands the virtue of patience on the football field. That was something that he learned in his JUCO years and now that he has his shot, it’s paying off. 

Modern offensive coordinators are so adept at creating space for their playmakers that, just taking care of the ball, and being willing to take the check-downs, which Aguilar feels are “always open,” can lead to great production. 

Aguilar was 17th in the country in time-to-throw last season but his average of 2.51 seconds was a snail’s pace compared to Carson Beck, who is the quintessential example of just getting the ball out of your hands. 

5. Carson Beck, Georgia: Just get the ball to the playmakers

Forever, Georgia has been Running Back U, but now the Bulldogs have a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback after Beck threw for 3,941 yards in 2023. The shift in philosophy to a pass-first offense has one simple thing in mind, getting the ball to the playmakers because, when you boil it down, that’s what offense has always been about. 

During a fall camp press conference, offensive coordinator Mike Bobo was asked how he continues to innovate, and with the talent at Georgia, it’s about making the basics look complex. 

“Football is football,” Bobo said, “We’re really running very similar plays that I ran 27 years ago when I started coaching, it might be just out of different formations, different personnel, and using different guys.”

It’s easy to fall back on simplicity when your quarterback is deadly accurate. In 2023, Beck completed 72.4% of his 399 attempts, but that was aided greatly by the talent around him, not a criticism of the top prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft, just an inescapable reality of his situation in Athens. 

Beck had the eighth-highest screen pass usage in the country at 22.5% and those throws accounted for 710 passing yards, the second-most passing yardage off of screens in the country, only behind Bo Nix. Beck was also pressured on just 19.0% of his dropbacks, the second-lowest percentage, only behind Nix. When pressured, his yards per attempt dropped from 9.9 (9th best) to 6.8 (42nd), and his completion percentage from 76.1% (7th) to 48.3% (30th). 

While the amount of screen-yardage may be used to knock Beck, it’s a feature of the Georgia offense, not a bug. Last season, Georgia produced 2,280 yards after the catch, over half of Beck’s passing yards, and nine different players finished the year with at least 100 yards after the catch. 

“You want to be innovative and play the game in space, and try to be explosive,” Bobo told reporters, “you’ve got to be explosive on offense nowadays, but at the same time you don’t want to lose your physicality as an offensive unit.”

As Miami will try to do with Ward, Georgia has meshed an aggressive passing attack with a physical run game. That combination allowed Beck to average 11.1 yards per attempt on play-action and opened up even more space for the Georgia playmakers over the middle of the field. 

On intermediate throws, truly the bread-and-butter for all five of these quarterbacks, Beck was second in the country at 14.4 yards per attempt, only trailing Virginia Tech’s Kyron Drones, a 2024 Heisman dark-horse.

While all five of these prolific passing offenses look different, they all look to access the middle of the field and make life miserable for opposing linebackers. Whether you do it with straight dropbacks, play-action, or RPOs, from heavy sets or spread looks, to excel in modern college football Henigan, Aguilar, Gabriel, Ward, and Beck make it clear, that the quarterback must throw with anticipation and accuracy between the numbers or the entire thing could fall apart. 

While the quarterback is often the best player on the field in an elite passing offense, these units and their play-callers prioritize getting the ball out of the QB's hand, unlike players like Caleb Williams and Sheduer Sanders who despite their overwhelming talent, weren’t quite as prolific. 

Entering the 2024 season, All five of these signal-callers have their sights set on the 12-team College Football Playoff with teams that are real CFP contenders. They will also be the model that the rest of the college football world will do their best to emulate. If those other teams can learn these lessons, they’ll not just set up their current QB to succeed but will have a better chance of identifying the right one, so players like Aguilar and Ward stop getting overlooked in the recruiting process.