The Path to the 12-team College Football Playoff Week 4: Michigan welcomes USC to the Big Ten

The 12-team College Football Playoff field continues to take shape and with old-school conference rivalries like Georgia/Alabama on the horizon in Week 5, in Week 4, we got to relish in the weird and wonderful of the new college football landscape. 

Week 4 brought us plenty of conference matchups, though ones we’re not too familiar with yet. Tennessee headed to Norman for an SEC showdown with Oklahoma while USC left Big Ten country out in LA to play Michigan at the Big House in a conference showdown, and Oklahoma State hosted Utah with the inside track to the Big 12 title on the line. It was weird, realignment this drastic was always going to be weird, but the dirty little secret, it gave us some great football. 

So, let’s dive right into it with the 12 most important things that happened in college football this week. 

The Statements

The biggest wins of Week 4

1. Sherrone Moore finally found Michigan’s identity

With Davis Warren’s three interceptions in Week 3, No. 18 Michigan barely hung on for a 28-18 over Arkansas State. Then, in Week 4, Sherrone Moore finally turned over the reins of his offense to the run-first quarterback Alex Orji and bullied Big Ten newcomer No. 11 USC for a 27-24 win at the Big House. 

Sometimes it takes new head coaches a little bit of time to find the identity of their team when everybody in the program is turning to them for the first time. Even in a case like Moore’s when he inherited a national title defense from Jim Harbaugh. It took three weeks and an embarrassing loss to Texas, but the former offensive line coach finally decided to lean on his defense and run the damn ball. 

Orji completed 7/12 passes for 32 yards, that’s all Michigan got through the air, and yet, the Wolverines beat Lincoln Riley and his high-powered spread offense loaded with elite weapons. Michigan ran for 290 yards on 46 attempts with 43 from Orji, 74 and a score from Donovan Edwards, and 159 with two touchdowns on 17 carries from Kalel Mullings. 

Even trailing 24-20 with the ball at its own 11-yard line, Moore didn’t flinch. He went to Orji for a reason and with his back against the wall, he stuck to his guns running the ball on eight of the next 10 plays including a violent 63-yarder from Mullings. 

Then, on fourth-and-goal from the one-yard line, USC had its ultimate “welcome to the Big Ten” moment when fullback Max Bredeson led the way for Mullings to reach the end zone for the game-winning score. 

This will be Michigan for the rest of the season. Last year with Harbaugh suspended, Moore beat Penn State at Beaver Stadium without attempting a pass in the second half, that’s his identity, and both then and now, it worked. 

The Wolverines produced a 45% success rate on the ground against a USC defense that had no doubt about what was coming. They also generated an explosive play on 14% of their attempts and averaged 7.0 yards a carry. Big Ten football is physical football and USC’s defense wasn’t ready for it. 

The USC offense may not have been ready for it either. Most of the top-end talent that left Ann Arbor for professional football this offseason were offensive players. With Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant on the interior defensive line and a dominant two-sack performance from Josiah Stewart, Michigan had eight tackles for loss, four sacks, and the defensive MVP of the 2023 National Championship Game Will Johnson had a pick-six to take a 20-10 lead in the third quarter. 

This is the right way for Michigan to play because there certainly aren’t 12 better defenses in the country, and if they can run the ball like this, there may not be 12 better teams. 

2. Heupel still a winner in Norman

In a lot of ways, No. 6 Tennessee and No. 15 Oklahoma are mirror images of one another, beyond the connective tissue between Josh Heupel and Brent Venables who played roles of varying importance on the Sooner’s 2000 national championship team, Heupel the All-American quarterback and Venables a defensive assistant. 

Heupel is in his fourth year at Tennessee, Venables his third as the head coach in Norman, but both teams are thriving with the veer-and-shoot offense that proliferated from Art Briles’ 2010s Baylor teams. This offseason, both ushered in a new era, handing that offense over to former five-star sophomore quarterbacks Nico Iamaleava and Jackson Arnold. However, on Saturday, in Oklahoma’s first-ever SEC contest, Heupel’s team once again proved to be a national championship contender with a 25-15 win on the road, while Venables’ group went the other way. 

There’s a big difference between having a disciple of the hot new offense and having one of the gurus. A year ago with Jeff Lebby as his offensive coordinator, Venables had a guru, a play-caller on par with Heupel who has replaced Briles as the patriarch of the veer-and-shoot coaching tree, who took his offense to Mississippi State as the head coach. Now, with Jackson Littrell, a fullback on that 2000 Oklahoma team and Lebby’s understudy in 2023, the Sooners have the offense, they just don’t quite know how to maximize it, or how to adjust the sliders when adversity hits. 

The whole idea of the veer-and-shoot is to utilize extremely wide splits to force the defense to declare whether it’s playing the run or the pass. Then the quarterback has the option to distribute the ball as he sees fit after the snap, hand it to the back, keep it himself, throw a quick screen, or hit one of the many deep shots this offense demands, stretching the field horizontally and vertically. 

If sequenced correctly, it can minimize the effect of a lack of talent on the offensive line, but both Oklahoma and Tennessee know how to get pressure, and that pressure led to a sloppy start with five first-half turnovers and an Oklahoma safety. Heupel knew how to right the ship, Littrell didn’t. 

At the end of the first quarter in a 3-3 game, Heupel decided that he wanted to take a shot and he did it with max protection, keeping in two backs to block for Iamaleava, setting up his young quarterback to succeed. 

Both quarterbacks struggled. Iamaleava finished 13/21 for 180 yards and a touchdown with two lost fumbles, while Arnold went 7/16 for 50 yards with an interception and two lost fumbles before he was benched for true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. but Heupel got his young quarterback on track while Venables gave his the rest of the night off.

Iamaleava and Arnold had a chance to be the future of quarterbacking in the SEC (along with Arch Manning of course), but now Arnold may not even be the present in Norman and he’s certainly being outplayed by his fellow former five-star. 

Through his first five career starts, going back to last year's Alamo Bowl against Arizona, Arnold has turned the ball over eight times, and he may not win his job back.

3. Kyle Whittingham didn’t make the same mistake twice

In 2023, injuries piled up for the Utah Utes and eventually, it broke Kyle Whittingham’s team. Without star tight end Brant Kuithe for the year and running Micah Bernard for much of it, the Utes went 8-5, but most importantly, quarterback Cam Rising never returned from a knee injury he suffered in the 2022 Rose Bowl loss to Penn State.

Coming into 2024, Whittingham knew he’d have his veteran quarterback healthy to start the season, but he wasn’t about the make the same mistakes twice. In his team’s Week 4 Big 12 opener, Rising was on the sidelines again, out with a hand injury he suffered against Utah State, but Whittingham’s offseason aggressiveness helped his team knock off No. 14 Oklahoma State 22-19 in Stillwater. 

Last season without Rising, Whittingham turned to Bryson Barnes, best known as a pig farmer, and Nate Johnson, a coveted recruit, but a raw player in his sophomore year. Around the two quarterbacks, attrition had set in so badly on that side of the ball that safety Sione Vaki became a running back and was the offense's best player. 

This time around, No. 12 Utah, the favorite in the Big 12, turned to true freshman Issac Wilson, Zach's little brother, and he was set up to succeed. Wilson finished 17/29 for 207 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, and unlike Barnes and Johnson, he could lean on the talent around him. 

Bernard, back healthy, carried the ball 25 times in the 100-degree Oklahoma heat for 182 yards, Kuithe scored both of the team’s touchdowns one on the ground and one through the air, and USC transfer Dorian Singer led the team with seven catches for 95 yards. 

Whittingham’s teams always win the battle in the trenches and with Bernard well outpacing Oklahoma State’s Ollie Gordon who finished with 42 yards on 11 carries, they did again on Saturday. However, with his transfer portal activity and the depth of talent around whoever is at quarterback, Utah can score enough not to waste its tremendous defensive performances. 

And it was a tremendous defensive performance. Oklahoma State starting quarterback Alan Bowman started 8/22 passing and was benched at halftime before returning amidst a string of four consecutive three-and-outs in the second half. The Cowboys went three-and-out seven times in the game. 

The death penalty

They may not be mathematically eliminated, but with a loss this week, these teams are no longer CFP contenders. 

4. Matt Rhule is still a year away at Nebraska

After Nebraska got past Colorado in Week 2 with ease in a 28-10 win, the path was clear for the Cornhuskers to roll to 7-0 before heading to Columbus to face Ohio State in Week 9. Bret Bielema and the No. 24 Illinois Fighting Illini had other ideas. 

Illinois knocked off No. 22 Nebraska 31-24 in overtime on Friday night, getting the ball first, scoring on two plays to break the 24-24 tie, and then forcing Nebraska into a third-and-42 from its own 43-yard line before a sack on fourth-and-29 sealed it. 

A season ago, Nebraska was 132nd in the country in turnover margin, splitting time between Jeff Sims and Heinrich Haarberg at quarterback. Now, with true freshman Dylan Raiola who went 24/35 for 297 yards and three touchdowns with one interception, that problem is solved, but the Huskers still can’t stop shooting themselves in the foot. 

That’s a staggering and borderline impossible stat. Though, when you watch Nebraska play, it starts to make sense. After Raiola threw a one-yard touchdown to Janiran Bonner to put the Huskers up 24-17 three seconds into the fourth quarter, everything fell apart. Illinois answered with a nine-play touchdown drive, Nebraska punted, Illinois fumbled, and then Raiola led a 10-play drive that should’ve sealed it, but John Hohl missed a 39-yard field goal with 2:59 left. 

Following that final score at the start of the fourth, Nebraska gained -1 yard the rest of the way. There was a clear path to CFP contention for the Huskers, but this loss takes that away. Still, it’s not a reason to lose faith in Rhule. 

In his previous two stops at Temple and Baylor, Rhule’s teams won exactly eight games over the first two years of his tenure, then in Year 3 at Temple in 2015, the Owls went 10-4 and in Year 3 at Baylor in 2019, before Rhule left for the NFL, he led the Bears to 11-3 and a Sugar Bowl loss. 

This loss hurts, it dashes the slim chance of an early arrival for Nebraska, but patience is a virtue and the fans in Lincoln should have some. Nebraska has a good coach and more importantly, it has the right quarterback, it’s just not going to happen in 2024. 

"I promise you one thing..."

With a 12-team CFP, one loss doesn’t end your season anymore

5. Kansas State has big problems in Provo

With 9:11 left in the second quarter, Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson missed a throw to Jayce Brown on third-and-6 and Chris Klieman sent out the field goal unit to take a 6-0 lead over BYU. From that point on, all hell broke loose in Provo. 

BYU answered with a field goal with 2:10 left in the first half, K-State got the ball back, and with 1:08 remaining, running back DJ Giddens fumbled, a scoop-and-score touchdown for Tommy Prassas, 10-6 Cougars. After the ensuing kick, Johnson threw a pick to Tyler Batty with 57 seconds left, and two plays later, Jake Retzlaff threw a 23-yard touchdown to Chase Roberts for a 17-6 halftime lead. 

It didn’t end there. Johnson threw his second interception three plays into the second half and two plays after that,  Retzlaff cashed it in for another touchdown, 24-6. K-State got the ball back, and after a three-and-out, this happened. 

From being down 6-3, BYU needed only four offensive plays to take a 31-6 lead over Kansas State. It took the Cougars five minutes and 23 seconds of game time to score 28 points and essentially end the game. 

6. The battle for the Big 12 isn’t over, at least not for another week

In 2023, Oklahoma State went 10-4, and then Mike Gundy’s team returned 21 starters while Texas and Oklahoma didn’t return to the Big 12. The Cowboys entered the season as one of the three favorites in the conference, along with Utah and Kansas State. Unfortunately for Gundy, the No. 14 Cowboys started Big 12 play with a 22-19 loss to No. 12 Utah in Week 4 and in Week 5 they have to head to Manhattan Kansas to face the No. 13 Wildcats. 

A Week 5 loss will all but knock Oklahoma State out of conference title contention and the 12-team CFP conversation, especially without a K-State/Utah matchup on the schedule this season. However, if Gundy’s squad bounces back to beat the reeling Wildcats, it’s game-on in a league that is almost certain to only produce one CFP team. 

The biggest problem is that Gundy’s best player, Ollie Gordon II has completely fallen off after rushing for 1,732 yards and 21 touchdowns a year ago. Gordon has just 216 yards on 62 carries through four games and is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. Oklahoma State’s offense is generating -0.04 EPA/rush which puts the Cowboys in the 31st percentile. 

The reason for hope is that Gordon wasn’t all that efficient in 2023 either. He parlayed his immense volume into huge numbers and did average 6.1 yards per rush, but the Oklahoma State rushing offense ranked 71st averaging 0.01 EPA/rush and 102nd in rushing success rate. 

Gordon only got 11 carries in Week 4 and Oklahoma State threw the ball 73% of the time on early downs. It may just be time to stubbornly hand it to him and hope he returns to form because Alan Bowman, who was benched at halftime against Utah, can’t carry this offense. 

Sound the alarm

7. Missouri has to fix something... it's just not clear what

Aside from having a field goal kicker who is 11/16 on the season and who went 3/6 in No. 7 Missouri’s 30-27 double-overtime win over Vanderbilt in Week 4, it’s not entirely clear what’s wrong with the Tigers in 2024, but something is off. Eli Drinkwitz’s team is a perfect 4-0, but it hasn’t felt that way over the past two weeks with a 27-21 win over Boston College before this week’s near disaster. 

One theory, Boston College and Vanderbilt are perennially bad programs with little-to-no brand recognition in the sport that are both on an upswing with exciting quarterbacks who are nightmares to gameplan for. Saturday, Diego Pavia threw for 178 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 84 yards on 17 carries. These look like questionable performances in ugly wins, but in 2024, that might not be the case. 

The biggest offseason task for Drinkwitz was replacing Cody Schrader’s production in his offense and after App state transfer Nate Noel’s 199 yards rushing in Week 4, it would seem he’s done that. This is still a good team with a dream schedule in the SEC, but Missouri cannot feel good about a trip to College Station next week. 

And the Week 3 Heisman goes to…

8. Clemson QB: Cade Klubnik… again

Cade Klubnik’s development at Clemson should serve as a lesson for any team that is ready to give up on a highly-rated quarterback recruit after his first season as a starter. Sometimes it takes time and after Klubnik’s four touchdown performance in Clemson’s 59-35 blowout win over NC State in Week 4, which followed a five TD outing against App State in Week 2, the former five-star has finally arrived. 

Klubnik finished with 209 yards on 16/24 passing with three touchdowns through the air and another on the ground. The reason he didn’t have a more prolific outing? He was sitting on the bench with a 52-7 lead after the Tigers' first drive in the third quarter. 

Between Clemson’s last two games, with Klubnik at quarterback, the Tigers have scored a touchdown on 15 of their last 16 drives including a streak of 12 straight that ended with a punt up 28-0 in the second quarter. 

For the season, Klubnik is averaging 8.88 yards per dropback, which compares favorably to his 5.65 yards from 2023. Even more ridiculous, Klubnik generated just 6.04 total EPA for the entire 2023 season. Against NC State, Klubnik produced 8.43 EPA on his dropbacks alone and that doesn’t even include a 54-yard touchdown run. 

That’s the statistical aspect of Klubnik’s development. But really, you don’t need to know any of that to see that Klubnik is an immensely improved player. He’s aggressively attacking downfield, creating late into the down and he’s finally showcasing the live arm that made him a top prospect in 2022. 

Maybe NC State just sucks. Tennessee hung 51 points on the Wolfpack a few weeks ago, and on Thursday night South Alabama gave us confirmation that App State's defense is a disaster with a 48-14 win. So yeah, it’s come against bad defenses, even alarmingly bad defenses, but If he continues to play this way, or Clemson’s offense is even 60% as prolific as it's been since Georgia held it to three points in Week 1, Klubnik will be a real Heisman Trophy candidate and he could be the Trevor Lawrence replacement Dabo Swinney has been so desperate to develop. 

China’s Qamdo Bamda Airport has the world’s longest runway

But with ridiculously soft schedules to start the season, these two teams may have an even longer one

9. Ohio State

Ohio State entered the year as the No. 2 team in the nation and since the Buckeyes have dropped to No. 3, not because of anything they’ve done through four weeks, but simply because they haven’t been tested. 

The Buckeyes began the season with a 52-6 win over Akron, followed that up with a 56-0 win over Western Michigan, and after a bye in Week 3, pounded Marshall 49-14. They’ve outscored their three Group of Five opponents 157-20 and more impressively have outgained them 1,383-540. 

Ryan Day’s team plays Michigan State next week, then Iowa in Week 6 before finally heading to Eugene to face No. 9 Oregon on October 12. With 12 spots in the CFP, teams may be more willing to test themselves early with tough non-conference opponents, but with a loaded Big Ten slate awaiting every single year, maybe this is the better way to go. 

10. Ole Miss

Somehow, No. 5 Ole Miss may have had things even easier than Ohio State to start the season and Lane Kiffin’s Rebels are picking up quite a bit of speed before lift-off into the SEC gauntlet. On Saturday, Ole Miss got to 4-0 with a 52-13 win over Georgia Southern.

The Rebels also have a 76-0 win over Furman, a 52-3 win over Middle Tennessee, and they beat Wake Forest so bad in Week 3 that Dave Clawson decided his team isn’t coming to Oxford for their matchup next season. 

Quarterback Jaxson Dart has quietly been excellent, completing 83% of his passes for 1,172 yards with eight touchdowns to just one interception, but his team is flying so far under the radar that his favorite receiver, Tre Harris, had to post a stat line of 11 catches for 225 yards and two touchdowns for anyone to notice. 

Play the fight song!

Whether by a great play-call or just a great play, the week’s most exciting and important touchdowns

11. Andy Kotelnicki has Penn State fans smiling in Happy Valley

James Franklin brought back a lot of the same pieces from last year’s Mike Yurcich-led offense, but changed out the man in charge, bringing Andy Kotelnicki in from Kansas. In just Kotelnicki’s third game as the Penn State OC, the Nittany Lions set a new program record with 718 total yards in a 56-0 win over Kent State. 

Drew Allar looks like a new player and that’s because Kotelnicki’s use of pre-snap motion is making things so much easier for him. Just take a look at his first of three touchdown throws on Saturday. 

With two running backs on the field, Kent State loads the box, leaving two defensive backs on the left side of the defense to defend Harrison Wallace III, the outside wide receiver, and tight end Tyler Warren. However, once Nick Singleton comes screaming across the formation on jet motion and Kaytron Allen releases to the flat, the linebacker responsible for Allen suddenly has to react to Singleton leaving two players to cover Wallace, Warren, and Allen. Allar could’ve picked his poison. 

With a play design like that, against an opponent like Kent State, you can start playing the fight song as soon as the ball is snapped. Oh, and Warren added a passing touchdown too because Kotelnicki was just having fun with it. 

UCF 2017 National Championship Memorial Group of Five Team of the Week

12. James Madison

James Madison was so good in its first season as an FBS team that before a home loss to App State, they were battling in court to become bowl-eligible. Then, when Curt Cignetti left for Indiana in the offseason and took most of his roster with him, it didn’t look like the Dukes would be in the mix for the 12-team playoff in 2024. And they still may not, but dropping 70 on North Carolina in Chapel Hill to get to 4-0 makes JMU worthy of being this week’s G5 Team of the Week. 

Oh, and it’s time for Mack Brown to hang it up, but that’s a different story for a different day.