Vanderbilt football: Game-by-game predictions for the 2024 Commodores

Without a doubt, one of the strangest teams in college football is Vanderbilt. That is because it, despite participating in the nation’s highest-regarded conference, is consistently one of the nation’s worst teams.

In fact, things have been so bad for so long that most CFB fans not only look down on the Commodores, but refuse to give them the time of day for preseason projections.

With that said, I figured I ought as well be the one to finally bite the bullet and give them their long-awaited spotlight, as the way I see it, there’s no downside to doing so—I’ll either be pleasantly surprised, or have the easiest job in sports journalism. Let’s find out which, shall we?

8/31: Virginia Tech (L)

Okie dokie, kicking things off about as pathetically as expected here.

The Virginia Tech Hokies are both coming off a winning 2023 campaign and considered by many to be dark horses in the ACC entering this fall. Even when accounting for them having first-game jitters and being on the road, I see them beating the Commodores by at least two touchdowns.

9/7: Alcorn State (W)

Don’t get me wrong, one could never overstate how terrible Vandy is, and there are many FCS teams in worse shape than Alcorn State right now, but I have to believe that the Commodores getting a win here is as safe of a bet as we’re going to see go their way today.

9/14: at Georgia State (L)

That’s right, I said it: Georgia State is going to win this game. And why? Because nothing — and I mean nothing — about it lines up in Vanderbilt’s favor.

Unlike Vandy, the Panthers are fresh off a positive record and will be playing at home. Another crucial detail is that the Commodores won’t even have an edge in how well-rested they’ll be heading into the matchup, as them and the Panthers have similar starts to their seasons in regards to strength.

Therefore, I see this encounter standing tall as a reminder of the poor condition Vandy football remains in, leaving onlookers wincing as they imagine the SEC slate that is now just a week away.

9/21: at Missouri (L)

The good news is that Mizzou has lost much of its talent since going 11-2 last season. The bad news is that some of said talent is returning, the Tigers are at home, and the Commodores were lucky to keep their 2023 meeting within three scores (despite being placed in one of the toughest spots on Mizzou’s schedule).

With all of that in mind, give me Missouri in a landslide.

10/5: Alabama (L)

Nick Saban may be gone, but with Alabama’s ongoing win streak against Vandy beginning well before he arrived, I have no reason to believe it’ll end this year.

10/12: at Kentucky (L)

Sure, the last time the Commodores headed into Lexington, they won in a thrilling upset. However, with that victory being both their only one over Kentucky since 2015 and bookended by 17-point losses to the Wildcats, logic compels me to file it away as a fluke.

But hey, if you’re not as convinced of that now, Vandy’s drop in performance since then leaves me fairly confident you will be once this meeting’s over with.

10/19: Ball State (W)

Vanderbilt. In Nashville. Against a MAC team that just went 4-8. If the Commodores were to lose this game as well, I’d probably have to spam-call Greg Sankey until he drops them from the Southeastern Conference.

10/26: Texas (L)

Texas just made its first playoff appearance and is currently a favorite to win the national title this season; I’d assume the ability to handle Vanderbilt comes with such territory.

11/2: at Auburn (L)

With Auburn having just broken the tie in this series last year, it deserves a deeper dive before blurting out a winner for its 2024 installment—so let’s see what we got here.

The Tigers beat the Commodores by two possessions in their 2023 showdown and will be at home this time around. Also, while the all-time tally of 22-21-1 implies competitive promise, all but two of those 21 Vandy wins came before 1960.

In conclusion, the deeper dive told us what we already feared: Vandy’s in for yet another loss.

11/9: South Carolina (L)

By going 5-7 in 2023, the South Carolina Gamecocks are following up a season worse than those of every other SEC name on Vanderbilt’s schedule. Combining that with the advantage of playing in Nashville makes this the conference game that should be most likely to go Vandy’s way.

There’s always a catch, however, and this time it’s the fact that 2023 South Carolina decimated the Commodores 47-6. And the dagger? SC was officially the weakest Southeastern power to face them that year as well.

So, the question is: Have I seen anything since that outcome that’s placed Vanderbilt on the benefitting end of a six-touchdown swing? If you remember how I publicly took Georgia State to beat them, you probably don’t need my answer.

11/23: at LSU (L)

Fun fact for ya: Seven of LSU’s last eight wins over Vanderbilt have involved the Commodores being held to a single-digit score; the sole exception was in 2019, when they almost hit 40 en route to still losing by four touchdowns (66-38)—and that was in Nashville.

I think we have all we need for this week.

11/30: Tennessee (L)

Oddly enough, there was a time in the 2010s where Vanderbilt appeared to be developing quite the edge over Tennessee, winning five of their seven meetings from 2012 to 2018. The Volunteers have refused to look back ever since though, winning each of their last five by 18 points or more.

Especially with the beating the Commodores will have taken by this point, I can’t imagine there being another shift in the rivalry’s trajectory that is violent enough to turn the tables back to Vandy this season. In fact, all I can imagine is another beatdown.

In summary, my final count for the 2024 Vanderbilt Commodores is 2-10, matching their total from 2023. So, to reference what I said at the beginning: This may not have been the projection Vandy fans were hoping to see, but it certainly made for an easy prompt.

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