They almost did it. After years of ridicule and “has-been” talks, the Miami Hurricanes football team was a single score away from clinching its first national title in a quarter-century.
With that and the beginning of the Darian Mensah era fresh on the mind, the people of Miami Gardens have to be practically tasting a natty right now. Another big help, however, is their schedule.
I know many CFB fans say this sort of thing about any non-SEC school, but I really mean it in this instance: if the Canes are true contenders, they have no good reason to limp through the slate that stands before them—and that’s precisely what brings me here today.
Here are my percentages for each Miami game of 2026 based off of its chance to win.
Predicting Miami's chances of winning every game in 2026
Friday, Sep. 4: @ Stanford (92%)
There are easier notes to start your season on than going across the country to face a conference foe, but I can’t pretend that the Cardinal of late have earned any consideration for an upset here.
Thursday, Sep. 10: Florida A&M (99%)
I think you could start this game with FAMU up 45-0 and the Hurricanes would still be able to walk out with a double-digit victory.
Friday, Sep. 18: @ Wake Forest (91%)
Believe it or not, the Demon Deacons have been shockingly competitive with the Hurricanes in their last several meetings (and yes, I’m including 2024, where it was a six-point game halfway through the fourth quarter). When taking that in with the Deacs having this showdown in Winston-Salem after going 9-4 in 2025, they don’t exactly come off as a “gimme.”
But alas, that streak of competitiveness spans almost 20 years and has consisted of nothing but Wake losses. I wonder if that should be telling us something also?
Saturday, Sep. 26: Central Michigan (97%)
Another perfect opponent to have wedged between conference road games.
Saturday, Oct. 3: @ Clemson (68%)
I won’t lie, I have legacy points carrying a ton of weight in this percentage, as I have to believe that Dabo can still lead a menacing effort in Death Valley, especially for what could be a season-defining game. In other words: you’re welcome, Tiger fans; the ghost of Clemson’s past is the only thing clocking y’all in that low.
Saturday, Oct. 17: Florida State (90%)
The Seminoles make for a circle on the calendar no matter their struggles, but if you can’t beat them at home, off a bye, while they’re neck-deep in those struggles, I don’t know what to tell ya.
Saturday, Oct. 24: Pittsburgh (79%)
This one’s rather generous, as I’m keeping the door open for “trap” potential through rivalry implications, as well as the placement between another rival and a road game. Regardless of the circumstances though, this would be a difficult loss to justify.
Saturday, Oct. 31: @ North Carolina (83%)
Speaking of generous percentages, I’m only granting a relatively lower number to the Tar Heels because they’re hosting Miami right before its biggest game of the year.
Saturday, Nov. 7: @ Notre Dame (45%)
As I said in my Notre Dame piece, this figure solely comes down to homefield advantage. The Fighting Irish are very much capable of blowing an otherwise-perfect season here, and if this pairing took place in Miami, I’d be convinced that they would.
Saturday, Nov. 14: Duke (85%)
It was difficult for me to not grow giddy over the thought of an upset here, as today’s Blue Devils have a reputation for exceeding expectations—a quality that obviously isn’t dimmed when they’re in a tricky spot on your schedule. And yet, I simply can’t look past how they’re far from home as their star quarterback conspires with the enemy.
Saturday, Nov. 21: Virginia Tech (86%)
I’d put a lot on the Hokies showing significant improvement in their first go with James Franklin, but since they serve as another Miami home game and wear no evidence of how good they’ll actually be (as it often goes with a first-year HC), I wouldn’t go as far as taking a Canes loss in this one.
Saturday, Nov. 28: Boston College (96%)
Despite whatever reputation yesterday’s Hurricanes may hold when it comes to late collapses, I defy anyone who’d humor the idea of this Eagles team (that just went 2-10, by the way) coming to town and downing a one-loss foe. In fact, I’m not a huge fan of schools making rings to commemorate minor achievements, but if BC somehow pulls this off, it has my blessing to do so for that alone.
We may not be able to see the future, but it’s digging into season projections like these that make us feel like we’re pretty close to it, as even a man without his eyes can see the vision for this year’s Miami Hurricanes. All that matters now is whether they’ll deliver on it. If they don’t, it’ll be one of their lamest underthrows to date—and that’s saying something.
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