The Notre Dame Fighting Irish learned a hard lesson last season—if your schedule is weak and the playoff pool is deep, anything less than perfection can be fatal to a memorable postseason.
Most programs have long known that, but the Irish clearly needed to experience it firsthand, as now that they have, they’re some of college football’s top villains to watch for this fall, and honestly? Their schedule is rather accommodating for the message they’re wanting to send.
But just how accommodating is it? Well, thanks to some inspiration from Saturday Blitz’s own Patrick Weider, I’ve made the effort to quantify an answer.
Here are my percentages for each Notre Dame game of 2026 based off of its chance to win.
Sunday, Sep. 6: vs. Wisconsin (89%)
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again—if Wisconsin were ever going to beat Notre Dame in 2026, it would be under circumstances like these, playing in Green Bay for Week 1. As a result, I’ve locked the Irish in at just under 90%, which should still be high enough to convey the extent of misfortune that’s corrupting the Badgers today.
Saturday, Sep. 12: Rice (99%)
If you’re religious, take a moment of your time to pray for Rice football fans, as the Owls have given them nothing to cheer for in what I’m sure feels like an eternity. But, even if 2026 turns out to be a great turnaround story for the team, this game won’t be a part of it.
Saturday, Sep. 19: Michigan State (91%)
Will the first year of Pat Fitzgerald’s tenure at Michigan State come with some immediate improvement for the Spartans? Almost definitely, but will it come with so much improvement that the Spartans can beat the Fighting Irish in Notre Dame? Almost definitely not.
Saturday, Sep. 26: @ Purdue (98%)
That high of a percentage may come off a bit unforgiving when we’re talking about Notre Dame’s first true road game of the season, and how it’s against an in-state rival from the P4. However, when you remember that Purdue only has three wins to its name in the last two years, that blow’s softened (or justified) at least a little, right?
Saturday, Oct. 3: @ North Carolina (90%)
Similarly to Michigan State, the Tar Heels are bound to improve, but there’s no way they’re coming anywhere close to the Irish. Yet, unlike the Spartans, they do have homefield advantage, so ND gets an ever-so-slightly slimmer shot at victory.
Saturday, Oct. 10: Stanford (93%)
Goodness gracious, where to begin with the Cardinal. They’re on the road, with once again a new head coach, and their 4-8 finish in 2025 was the best they’ve seen in years. You could absolutely say that Stanford is the worst P4 program of the last five seasons, but don’t worry—if you won’t say it, the Fighting Irish will nonetheless show it.
Saturday, Oct. 17: @ BYU (70%)
YES! Finally, a challenge! Well, at least when compared to everyone we’ve seen so far.
The Cougars are another team entering the fall with something to prove after allegedly being disrespected by the CFP committee, and they're sure to bring their best for this game as a consequence, hoping to “put the world on notice,” so to speak.
When combining that with both Provo being a ruthless environment for visitors and the Cougs easily being more battle-tested than the Irish leading up to this duel, a Notre Dame win is far from guaranteed. The Irish remain the visibly superior party though, so they still get a considerable nod from me.
Saturday, Oct. 31: vs. Navy (96%)
A good G6 team is still a G6 team, and no series reminds us of that better than ND-Navy. This meeting will give Midshipmen everywhere a Halloween fright they won’t soon forget.
Saturday, Nov. 7: Miami (55%)
Wow, a real “clash of the titans” moment with this one. Rivalry implications, playoff implications, and monumental standards to meet for both sides (which is rare these days given Miami’s issues from just a few years back).
In my opinion, this comes down to who’s at home and that alone, which is why Notre Dame gets a whopping 5% edge, but don’t get things twisted—if 2026 isn’t Miami’s time to shine, I don’t know when is, so if the Irish aren’t careful, it won’t take much error at all for this crucial data point to land in the red.
Saturday, Nov. 14: Boston College (94%)
This “rivalry” was pathetically competitive last year, but with how hideous the Eagles were, I’m willing to write it off as a fluke…and even if it wasn’t, I refuse to fear the idea of BC actually winning, and you should too.
Saturday, Nov. 21: SMU (85%)
I will continue to assert that the SMU Mustangs don’t get enough credit for how well they’ve held their own in the P4 so far, and the fact that they’re one of Notre Dame’s toughest obstacles should serve as the latest proof. They won't get a win out of it, but just know that I care.
Saturday, Nov. 28: @ Syracuse (91%)
With quarterback issues being the main reason for their extensive struggles in 2025, I have to believe that the Orange will be in better shape this go around, especially when at home and in late-season form. Unfortunately, there’s nothing to substantiate their competitive ceiling ever eclipsing that of a school that recently hung 70 on them.
So, I got good news and bad news, Notre Dame. The good news is that you realistically have no business finishing your regular season anywhere beneath 11-1. The bad news is if you somehow do, you’re in serious danger of missing the playoffs again. But to be fair, when you have a schedule like this one, you wouldn’t deserve it at that point anyway.
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