Table for 12 Week 14: Ohio State gets revenge, Texas needs chaos, and the ACC has it

In 1621, the English colonists in Plymouth, Massachusetts, came together with the Wampanoag people for a three-day feast, the first Thanksgiving. 

For two days in 2025, 18-24 year olds from around the country and in some cases the world came together to move a ball down a field against their most hated enemies, Rivalry Week. 

Which is more beautiful? I’ll leave that up to you. But I bet there weren’t millions of people spending their long weekend watching a YouTube TV multiview of the first Thanksgiving. 

And Rivalry Week did not disappoint. It brought us an SEC shake-up, ACC chaos, vengeance in Ann Arbor, and heroics on the Plains. And most of all, it brought us one step closer to the College Football Playoff. 

As we stand heading into conference championship week, there are conceivably 18 teams still in the mix for a spot in the CFP field, though in my opinion, 10 have already made their reservations at the table for 12. 

First Course

1. Ice Cold Catharsis (No. 1 Ohio State 27 No. 15 Michigan 9)

It’s almost like the No. 5 and No. 13 overall picks in the 2025 NFL Draft were important players for Michigan. Once Wink Martindale realized he didn’t need to blitz at a 50 percent clip midway through the season, the 2024 Michigan defense was one of the best in the country, and Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant were the biggest reasons why. 

That interior defensive line duo was also particularly important against Ohio State, and their absence in this year’s edition of The Game was more than a little bit noticeable. Graham and Grant allowed Michigan to double Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka on the outside while holding the Buckeyes to 77 yards on 26 carries. Saturday, Michigan tried to same game plan with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, but without them, the Buckeyes bludgeoned Michigan for 186 yards on the ground, 110 on 31 carries in the second half. 

It’s not hard to figure out that when you don’t have two first-round defensive tackles, it’s going to be a lot harder to defend the run with light boxes. Still, Ryan Day and Ohio State offensive coordinator Brian Hartline exasperated Martindale’s dilemma with their 12 personnel usage. 

On Ohio State’s first touchdown of the day, a 35-yard touchdown pass from Sayingto Smith on fourth-and-5, Ohio State went to 13 personnel (1 running back, 3 tight ends), finally getting the one-on-one it desperately wanted. 

Last week’s win over Rutgers, with Smith and Tate both sidelined, was like an experiment for the Ohio State coaching staff. They featured a bevy of tight ends, completing just three passes to wide receivers all day. While it wasn’t as pronounced, Day and Hartline took a lot of those same ideas and infused them with the most dynamic wide receiver duo in the country.

Live with two high safeties, as Michigan did all day, and you’re helpless to stop the run. Bring an additional body into the box, and it’s a one-on-one for Smith or Tate. Ohio State came out throwing it deep, and it resulted in a pick on play No. 2, so you can say that Ohio State used the pass to open the run, but more specifically, they used the threat of the pass to open the run. 

There’s something else worth mentioning: It takes patience to play that way, and you can have quite a bit when you know you have the best defense in the country on the other side. That definitely helps. And that defense gave up 39 total yards in the second half. 

Second Course

2. Arch Manning had some help (No. 16 Texas 27 No. 3 Texas A&M 17)

Arch Manning finished the first half 8-for-21 for 51 yards, but it may have been the most impressive 8-for-21 half of football I’ve ever seen. Much like the rest of the season, he was under constant duress without much of a running game to alleviate the pressure. Yet, he navigated the pocket like – well – somebody who has been taught to play quarterback by two NFL hall of famers for his entire life, and gave his receivers chances to make plays. For the game, he finished 2-for-10 under pressure, but that was with two drops. According to PFF, he had a 57.1 percent adjusted completion rate. 

Then, after the intermission, he got the help he’s needed all season. Texas A&M has been one of the most lethal third-down defenses in the country because of the exotic blitzes that Mike Elko pulls out, often creating free runs to the quarterback for his linebackers. However, Steve Sarkisian used that aggressiveness against him to kickstart a run game that hasn’t produced a 100-yard rusher since last year’s first-round CFP victory over Clemson. 

Manning wasn’t that 100-yard rusher; it was Quintrevion Wisner with 156 on 19 carries, but this is a great example of how A&M’s usage of stunts and games up front can be a dangerous risk/reward proposition for a defense. The defensive tackle works from over the left guard to the center, allowing the left guard to work up to the linebacker and creating a big hole for Manning to exploit. 

Running quarterbacks can do that, but Sark also created advantages with condensed formations, forcing Aggies' second and third-level defenders into the run fit, and with pullers, creating additional gaps to the perimeter for Wisner. That, along with pre-snap motion and misdirection, all slow an elite pass rush because they have to be cognizant of their run fits, but in the passing game, Sark found answers, too. 

Rather than letting Taurean York and Daymion Sanford pin their ears back on late downs, he found ways to make them cover. 10 of Manning’s throws targeted A&M linebackers, completing seven for 54 yards and three first downs. 

The numbers weren’t amazing, but if you watched the game, Manning was fantastic. In fact, over his last five starts, he’s been one of the best quarterbacks in the country. 

A three-loss Texas team needed a lot of help to get in, and got almost none of it on Friday and Saturday. The Longhorns will almost certainly be on the outside looking in, but not, as Ryan Day said, because they played Ohio State.

Yes, the third loss hurts, and a two-loss Texas with a win over, say, Purdue in Week 1 instead of a loss to Ohio State, might be in the field right now. Wins over Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, and now Texas A&M are about as strong a collection as there is among the bubble two-loss teams. Yet, the reason Texas isn’t going to make the CFP is that it lost to a Florida team that finished with four wins and needed overtime to dispatch Kentucky and Mississippi State.

Third Course

3. Kalen DeBalls (No. 10 Alabama 27 Auburn 20)

It was 29 yards shorter than Jalen Milroe’s fourth-and-forever at Jordan-Hare, but it might be remembered just as long. Tied 20-20 with 3:54 left in the fourth quarter and facing a fourth-and-2 from the Auburn six-yard line, Kalen DeBoer left his offense on the field, and Ty Simpson etched his name into Iron Bowl history. 

It was Simpson’s third touchdown pass to Isaiah Horton in the game and Alabama’s third fourth-down conversion on as many attempts. The throw put the icing on a 15-play, 75-yard touchdown drive that ate up 7:53 of the fourth quarter. It was Simpson’s second heroic fourth down conversion of the drive and a more impressive through than it may appear on first glance. 

Simpson started his progression to the boundary, finding Marshall Pritchett covered in the flat and Kaleb Edwards double-teamed at the goalline. So, facing a three-man rush, the first-year starter calmly works back to the left, where he sees that Horton, somehow, got inside leverage on the middle of the field safety, and quickly settles his feet to rip a seed before Horton runs into traffic. 

That’s exactly why DeBoer trusted his quarterback in that moment, and while it may seem crazy, it was the right decision. It was also the same decision that Kirby Smart made in the fourth quarter against Alabama, which resulted in a turnover on downs. If either of those plays go the other way, Alabama misses the College Football Playoff for the second straight season, Tide fans revolt against DeBoer, and Penn State fans’ DeBoer to Happy Valley dreams are much closer to reality. 

Instead, Alabama is headed back to Atlanta for a rematch with the Bulldogs, and though they could take their third loss of the season, the Tide are locked into the CFP. The committee wouldn’t risk dropping a conference title game loser from the field because that would be the end of conference championship games, and the leagues love their early December paydays. 

Reservations: The season isn’t over yet, but these teams have all but locked up a spot in the CFP

4. Complementary football or fatal flaw? (No. 5 Texas Tech 49 West Virginia 0)

Texas Tech entered Week 14 as a 24-point favorite over West Virginia, and yet I was hesitant to make their reservation after the Red Raiders pounded UCF in Week 12. The defense is legitimately one of the best in the country, but my trepidation is because the offense has been living on a razor’s edge. 

Texas Tech’s offense is 7th percentile in early down EPA/play, but 87th percentile in late-down success rate. That bore out in Week 14’s dominant win with the Red Raiders posting -0.33 EPA/play on early downs but a ridiculous 1.08 EPA/play on late downs with a 65 percent success rate. 

Part of that is rooted in a conservative offense approach, which complements a dominant defense well, but it should be a major concern in the CFP. Behren Morton and the Red Raiders are facing an average third-down distance of 7.78 yards this year, and against playoff teams, Morton will struggle to bail them out so regularly. 

Texas Tech is in the Big 12 Title Game and, regardless of the result, will be in the CFP field, and the Red Raiders’ elite pass rush will make them a nightmare first-round matchup. I just have my doubts about the other side of the ball, which seems tremendously unfair after they just put up 572 yards of offense in a 49-0 win. 

The defense, though, when I say dominant, I mean dominant. In Week 14, Texas Tech held West Virginia to an 18.2 percent success rate, the second-lowest by any offense in a game between two Power 4 opponents this year. The only worse performance was by Oklahoma State in Week 6 against Arizona, and the Cowboys rank 132nd in the FBS in success rate. Texas Tech held Oklahoma State to a 20 percent success rate, the third lowest in a game between Power 4 opponents. 

5. Dante Moore is back, but will his WRs be? (No. 6 Oregon 26 Washington 14)

I’ve spent the past few weeks writing about how Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein has become one of the best run-game designers in the sport, and how that heavy personnel rushing attack can carry the Ducks through the postseason. Then, Oregon turned around and ran for 106 yards on 42 carries in Seattle, and it didn’t matter because Dante Moore is back. 

Moore had a midseason swoon. The downturn coincided with injuries to his top playmakers, and the perception of his struggles was probably greater than his actual drop-off in effectiveness. Still, the first overall pick buzz had faded, and now, it’s back in full force. 

Moore was fantastic on Saturday, posting a 78.6 percent adjusted completion rate despite his 10.4-yard average depth of target. Throws like that one show why he’ll be a first-rounder if he opts for the NFL Draft this offseason, and why Oregon will be a ridiculously tough out in the CFP. 

Without Dakorien Moore, who missed his fourth-straight game, Oregon still managed a 13 percent explosive pass rate, up from a season average of 9.2. It helps that Malik Benson has finally tapped into his outrageous talent, putting the game away for the second straight week by looking like the fastest man alive on a touchdown run. If Moore and Evan Stewart, who was injured in the offseason but could potentially return in December, both get back healthy, it’s hard to imagine many defenses slowing down the Ducks. 

6. Too much Mateer (No. 8 Oklahoma 17 LSU 13)

Crucially, Oklahoma pulled ahead of Notre Dame in the CFP rankings after its Week 12 win over Alabama. So, even if BYU beats Texas Tech next week and the Big 12 ends up with two teams in the CFP, and Alabama moves up with an SEC Title win, the Sooners will be above the cut line. 

The reason that Oklahoma will make the CFP, though, is the resume it has built because there hasn’t been much in the way of style points. Oklahoma gained 393 yards against LSU on Saturday, but John Mateer finished with three interceptions, and both of the Sooners' touchdowns came on broken plays: a 45-yard catch and run touchdown from Deion Burks and a 58-yard wide open touchdown grab by Isaiah Sategna III. 

Aside from those explosive plays, the Sooners had five three-and-outs and gained fewer than 20 yards on eight of their 14 drives. They also went 4-for-15 on third downs, and worst of all, averaged 2.7 yards per rush. Oklahoma’s run game entered the week outside the top 100 in the FBS by EPA/rush and rushing success rate, but that will be dropping after averaging -0.63 EPA/rush on Saturday with an 18 percent rushing success rate. 

By CollegeFootballData’s rushing success rate metric, Oklahoma was at 14.8 percent vs. LSU. That’s the lowest rushing success rate by any winning team in an FBS game this season, and the lowest by a winning team since Western Kentucky beat FIU 41-28 in Week 13 of the 2023 season. 

With Brent Venables’ stout and opportunistic defense, Ben Arbuckle’s offense simply has to be complementary. Instead, John Mateer has the second-highest usage among quarterbacks in the SEC and, as a boom-or-bust player, is one of the least efficient. 

Oklahoma is in. How long the Sooners stay will come down to how many short fields their defense can hand Arbuckle and Mateer. 

Reservations: Week 9- Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Indiana Week 10- Ohio State Week 11- Alabama, Georgia Week 12- Notre Dame

Championship Week could doom Notre Dame's chances in the College Football Playoff

Check Please!: When it’s clear there won’t be a seat for you at the CFP table, it’s time to pay your check and go

7. Narduza line (No. 12 Miami 38 Pitt 7)

With Mason Heintschel at quarterback, Pitt is the ACC’s version of the Mendoza line. Good teams pound the Panthers, who lack the bodies in the trenches to withstand quality pass rushes and are too blitz-heavy defensively to keep proven quarterbacks in check. On Saturday, Miami proved itself to be a good team, eliminating Pat Narduzzi’s team from the ACC Title race with its second conference loss of the season. 

Since Heintschel took over, Pitt is 6-2 with wins over Boston College, Florida State, Syracuse, NC State, Stanford, and Georgia Tech, and losses to Notre Dame 37-15 and Miami 38-7. Heintschel’s stats reflect that split. 

In this one, Pitt’s offensive line was entirely overmatched. Heintschel was sacked four times, and Miami finished with six tackles for loss. Pitt’s run game managed a 19 percent success rate, and the Panthers mustered 87 total yards in the second half. 

8. The ACC chaos scenario is here (Cal 38 No. 21 SMU 35)

For the sake of saving Old Takes Exposed a bit of time, last week I wrote that coming off its best two performances of the season by EPA/play, SMU was the scariest team in the ACC. The Mustangs were becoming my pick to represent the conference in the College Football Playoff. Then, they went to Berkley. 

Maybe the craziest thing about Cal’s upset is that the SMU offense didn’t cool off. The Mustangs submitted their second-best outing by EPA/play at 0.32 and managed a 57 percent success rate. SMU ran for 227 yards and 7.3 yards per carry, yet fell behind 31-14 early in the fourth quarter before Kevin Jennings led three consecutive touchdown drives to take the lead 35-31 with 2:22 left. Then, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele answered with a 7-play 75-yard touchdown drive. 

With SMU out of the picture, 7-5 Duke has the tiebreaker over Miami to get into the ACC Title Game next week against Virginia, which handled business against Virginia Tech on Saturday night. Theoretically, that could open the doomsday scenario where Duke wins the ACC, and the committee has the American Champion and James Madison as the fourth and fifth-highest ranked conference champions. 

I tend to think that Duke would still get the nod over JMU. The committee has given no respect to the Sun Belt this season, so why would they start now? Still, it’s a possibility, while the ACC’s clear best team is likely going to end up on the wrong side of an at-large debate against a team they beat. Let’s just override the tiebreakers, send Miami to Charlotte, and save this terrible conference. 

Head of the table: The best individual performance earns the seat at the head of the table

9. Vanderbilt QB, Diego Pavia (No. 14 Vanderbilt 45 No. 19 Tennessee 24)

Diego Pavia was clearly pressing to make his Heisman Trophy case early in Knoxville and threw two first-half interceptions as chants of “F*** you Pavia” rained down at Neyland Stadium. Yet, you can still make a very real argument that he was the best player in college football again this week. 

With a negative EPA/dropback, the statistical argument is tough, but with 20 carries for 165 yards and a touchdown to go along with his 268 yards and a touchdown on 18-for-28 passing, the raw numbers are impressive. The real case is the visual one. After a back-and-forth start, Pavia just took over this game on the road in a hostile environment and ripped it away from his in-state rival. 

Tennessee took a 21-14 lead off Pavia’s second pick of the first half, then Vanderbilt punted on its next possession. From that point on, Vandy went touchdown, touchdown, field goal, touchdown, touchdown, end of game. 

Pavia’s usage is higher than any QB in the country, and despite that, he’s second only to Julian Sayin by CollegeFootballData’s Predicted Points Added per play metric, a facsimile of EPA. Pavia absolutely deserves a trip to New York as a Heisman finalist, and honestly, there’s a really strong case for him to win the award outright. There’s still conference championship week left, but I think Pavia would be my pick. 

Appetizers: A little something to chew on from the week that was in college football

10. Stockton’s struggles (No. 4 Georgia 16 No. 23 Georgia Tech 9)

Sometimes, rivalry games bring out players’ best. For Gunner Stockton, Clean Old Fashioned Hate brought out his worst. The Georgia quarterback has proven to be one of the clutchest players in the country, so I don’t think the moment was too big for him at a Bulldog-friendly neutral site in Atlanta. Rather, it was what Georgia Tech’s defense did that stifled the Georgia passing game. 

All season, Stockton has been less efficient against zone coverage, throwing all five of his interceptions against zone with all of Georgia’s top five receivers averaging fewer yards per route run vs. zone than they do against man. 

Part of that is a relatively inexperienced quarterback who doesn’t always look comfortable sitting in the pocket and reading through his progressions. Part of it is a much-improved receiver corps that features man-beaters who win with quickness like Zachariah Branch or who win with size like Noah Thomas and Colbie Young. Regardless of the reason for it, Georgia Tech sold out to exploit this weakness on Friday, and it worked. 

The Yellow Jackets routinely dropped eight into coverage, especially on late downs. Against zone coverage, Stockton went 8-for-13 for 66 yards with an interception on Friday. When they did blitz, which clears up the picture on the back end, Stockton averaged 5.8 yards per attempt compared to 2.3 without the blitz. At -0.42 EPA/dropback, it was by far the worst performance of his career, and one that all of Georgia’s remaining opponents will attempt to replicate. 

11. The Lane Train is loading up for LSU (No. 7 Ole Miss 38 Mississippi State 19)

I typically prefer to focus on the happenings on the field, but if I’m staying true to the premise of the 12 most important things that affect the College Football Playoff, then the Lane Kiffin saga is absolutely one of them. 

Ole Miss ran away with the Egg Bowl, and while he has yet to make an official decision as of 12:45 a.m. ET Sunday morning, all indications from Pete Thamel and others are that Lane Kiffin is going to be the next head coach at LSU. So, the question becomes, and has seemingly been, whether Ole Miss will allow him to coach in the College Football Playoff? 

I’d like the offer my opinion on the matter: HELL NO. 

Ole Miss has pledged that it would match any monetary offer Kiffin receives from another program to leave, so if he leaves, he is leaving, ostensibly for a better chance to win the national championship at a program that he views as having better resources and a stronger recruiting base. Yet, the best chance he’s ever had of winning a national championship is staring him in the face with an 11-1 team that is a shoo-in for the CFP field. 

How could you possibly let that coach, who will then be actively recruiting for a rival program, including tampering with your players and coaching staff, still lead your team through the most important stretch in program history? It’s untenable. 

This isn’t Eric Morris going from North Texas to Oklahoma State. This is a coach leaving for an annual rival, who will be hoping to raid your program to take it with him. If he wants to leave, tell him to leave now, and please spare me the ESPN pity parade. 

Kid’s menu: The CFP is a 12-team reservation that needs one kid’s menu for the Group of Six team (And maybe another for the ACC)

12. A star in the Mestemaking (North Texas 52 Temple 25)

North Texas redshirt freshman quarterback Drew Mestemaker finished out the season going 20-24 for 366 yards and three touchdowns in a 52-25 win over Temple on Friday. After averaging 15.25 yards per dropback in the regular season finale, he closes out the year with 3,825 yards and 29 touchdowns to just four interceptions. He’s fifth in the country in EPA/dropback and passing success rate. 

Mestemaker is one of the breakout stars of the season in his first year as a starter. In case you haven’t heard, this wasn’t just his first year as a starting quarterback in college or at the FBS level. It was his first year as his team’s starting quarterback since he played freshman football. Mestemaker backed up now Louisville backup QB Deuce Adams at Vandergrift High School in Texas, but this offseason, with his head coach Eric Morris heading to Oklahoma State, he’ll likely be the No. 1 QB on the transfer portal market. 

Next week, Mestemaker will have a chance to lead North Texas to the CFP with a matchup against Tulane in the American Championship Game.