The Arch Manning era at Texas is officially underway, and with it comes a tidal wave of expectations. But just as Longhorns fans start dreaming of another run to the SEC Championship run—and maybe more—one anonymous college football coach has offered a reality check that’s sure to rattle the burnt orange faithful.
“He’s an elite athlete,” the coach told ESPN. “He’s still a first-time starter, so people need to give him a little bit of time.”
That might sound like a reasonable take, but it comes with a bit of sting if you look closer. Translation: If Arch Manning plays like most first-year starters, Texas may not be the national title contender its fans believe it to be.
Let’s be honest—Texas isn’t coming into 2025 as some fringe playoff hopeful. They’re coming off a monster season where they not only reached the SEC title game, but won two games in the College Football Playoff before falling just short of playing for a national title. That’s the bar now. And if this version of Arch Manning needs more seasoning, the Longhorns could very well tumble below it.
Even with just two starts to his name over the past two years, Arch has already been penciled in by some as a top-15 (or higher) quarterback in the nation. But here’s the thing: hype doesn’t win games in the SEC. Experience does. And right now, Manning has very little of that.
He’s flashed potential—939 passing yards, nine touchdowns, plus four rushing scores last season in limited action—but it's a totally different world when you become the face of the program.
Texas fans have every right to be excited. Manning brings something to the position that they haven’t had since Sam Ehlinger—a quarterback who can not only sling it, but hurt you with his legs. And by all accounts, he’s clicked with his teammates and become a respected leader in the locker room. But, as the coach pointed out, there's still a learning curve.
What should make Texas nervous is how unforgiving their schedule is going to be in Year 2 of the SEC era. The margin for error is razor-thin. If Manning isn’t ready from the jump, the Longhorns could find themselves losing a key conference game early to Ohio State, and watching their playoff chances start to slip.
One conference loss doesn’t kill your season, but two? In this version of the SEC? It might.