Ohio State is going to try to win back-to-back National Championships this season. Their schedule is manageable, but it includes some difficult games, starting with Week 1 against Texas. They also have road games in Washington, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Michigan is Ohio State’s chief rival, and Ohio State has lost to Michigan 4 years in a row. I am breaking down every Ohio State’s schedule and the percentage chance of them losing each game.
Week 1 vs. Texas
Top-ranked Texas at the defending National Champions, and Ohio State are a fascinating matchup between two powerhouse programs. This is also a rematch from the semifinals playoff game when Ohio State won 28-14. Both teams lost a lot of talent from last year’s teams. Ohio State will be starting a 1st year quarterback in either Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz. Texas will counter with quarterback Arch Manning, who is making his 3rd career start.
Chance Ohio State loses this game: 50%. This is a toss-up game between two good teams. To me, it could be a low-scoring game between two young quarterbacks.
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Week 2 vs. Grambling State
This is the automatic tune-up game for Ohio State after opening against Texas. Ohio State should dominate this game, and backups will be playing in the 2nd Half.
Chance Ohio State loses this game: 0%. If everyone on Ohio State’s teams gets the flu and they must play walk-ons, Ohio State could lose, but other than that, they are not losing this game.
Week 3 vs. Ohio
This is also a tune-up type of game, but Ohio is a better team than Grambling State. These two games are a chance for Ohio State to build some momentum for the rest of the season.
Chance Ohio State loses this game: 1% Ohio State should win this game easily and have a chance to rest starters in the 4th quarter.
Week 4 at Washington
Washington is coming off a 6-6 season but brings back a talented group of players led by quarterback Demon Williams. Big Ten teams traveling 2 or more time zones went 3-10 last year, so for Ohio State, traveling west to play Washington could be a tough game for them to play.
Chance Ohio State loses this game: 25% Washington has a 1/4 chance of pulling off the upset. This is a tricky away game for Ohio State.
Week 5 vs. Minnesota
Minnesota has an identity as a Big Ten program, as they will run the ball well and play good defense. Ohio State should win this game, though, because they are the more talented team.
Chance Ohio State loses this game: 5% Ohio State should win this game because they are home and have a superior roster, but I give Minnesota 5% of pulling the upset.
Week 6 at Illinois
Illinois is returning 16 starters from last year's team and is coming off a 10-win season. They are a trendy pick to make the College Football Playoff. Ohio State will have a tough, competitive game against Illinois, but should still win the game.
Chance Ohio State loses this game: 15%. Illinois could be a test, but I think Ohio State wins the game.
Week 7 at Wisconsin
Playing back-to-back road games at Illinois and Wisconsin is no small task for Ohio State, but former Ohio State player and coach Luke Fickell has struggled at Wisconsin. I like Ohio State’s chances to win this game because Wisconsin is not a good program right now.
Chance Ohio State loses this game: 5% I can see this being a tough game for a half or maybe 3 quarters, but ultimately Ohio State wins this game.
Week 8 vs. Penn State
Penn State has not beaten Ohio State since 2016, but it brings back a talented team in the Big Ten. They were picked as the favorite to win the Big Ten this year. I expect a spirited game between two good teams.
Chance Ohio State loses this game: 50%. This is a toss-up game between two programs that have played close games over the last decade. This is Penn State’s best chance at beating Ohio State since 2016.
Week 9 At Purdue
Ohio State has had some epic losses over the years at Purdue, but I do not see it happening this year. Purdue went 1-11 last year, and they probably won't be that much better in Barry Odom's 1st season as Head Coach.
Chance Ohio State loses this game: 1%. There is a good chance that Ohio State wins this game handily and gets a chance to rest its starters.
Week 10 vs. UCLA
UCLA could be an improved team this season. Quarterback Nico Iamaveava transferred to UCLA from Tennessee and could help the offense improve this season. Ohio State should still be able to take care of business against UCLA.
Chance Ohio State loses this game: 5%. I think Ohio State wins this game, but UCLA could be an improved team this season.
Week 11 vs. Rutgers
Ohio State has dominated Rutgers since it joined the Big Ten, and they have beaten Rutgers every year. I expect Ohio State to take care of business and win this game.
Chance Ohio State loses this game: 5%. I am giving it the same amount as the UCLA game. I'd be shocked if Ohio State doesn’t win this game.
Week 12 vs. Michigan
This game is an important game for Ohio State and Head Coach Ryan Day. Having lost 4 years in a row to their arch-rival makes this game extremely important for Ohio State. If they lost a 5th year to Michigan, it would be a bad look for Day.
Chance Ohio State loses this game: 55%. This is a toss-up game that leans slightly towards Michigan. Ohio State should have a good chance to win this game, though.
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