The 2026 NFL Draft is just about two weeks away from kicking off, as each team will make decisions that will severely alter the future of their respective franchises. While the NFL Draft starts with the 1st overall pick, everyone knows Fernando Mendoza is being picked by the Raiders, meaning the decisions truly start with the Jets with the 2nd overall pick.
After a truly miserable season, the Jets would've loved to land a franchise quarterback at the top of the class, but in this class, they'll have to settle for the best player available. The issue for the Jets is that their pick could go several different ways which is where the "same old Jets" typically trip themselves up.
Arvell Reese could be a hit or major disaster for the New York Jets
When the Jets are on the clock with the 2nd Overall Pick, the big debate will likely be over which edge rusher they like the most. The three most likely candidates to go 2nd overall are Ohio State's Arvell Reese, Texas Tech's David Bailey, and Miami star Rueben Bain Jr.
At this point in the NFL Draft cycle, all signs point towards the New York Jets picking Arvell Reese 2nd overall. Reese seemingly has the highest ceiling of any player in contention for the pick, and maybe even in this entire NFL Draft.
The issue with drafting Arvell Reese is that a team like the Jets is drafting him fully off his potential, and not his production. While Reese would be an electric off-ball linebacker who can rush the passer, he plans on making a full-time move to edge rusher.
In limited pass rushing snaps, Arvell Reese recorded 6.5 sacks and 27 pressures on 119 pass rushing snaps achieving a pressure rate of 22.3%, but just a 13.7% pass rush win rate. Most of Reese's success off the edge came due to schemed up pressures thanks to Matt Patricia.
While Arvell Reese still has all the talent to develop into a monster off the edge, he has a long way to go before he comes close to living up to the Micah Parsons and Abdul Carter comparisons. It won't be an overnight transition for the edge rusher, but the talent and skill set is there to tap into.
When Aaron Glenn was in Detroit, he succeeded thanks to another team making the same mistake the Jets may make. While Aidan Hutchinson was the clear top pass rusher in the class, the Jaguars drafted the more athletic player in Travon Walker who was seen as having a higher ceiling.
Travon Walker has had a solid career with 27.5 sacks in 63 games, but he's nowhere near the same level of pass rusher that Aidan Hutchinson has been with 43 sacks in just 56 games.
David Bailey may be the Aidan Hutchinson to Arvell Reese's Travon Walker in this year's NFL Draft class. While Arvell Reese may have the higher ceiling, David Bailey like Hutchinson has an incredibly high floor thanks to his ability as a pass rusher.
This season, David Bailey racked up 14.5 sacks for Texas Tech, finishing in a tie for the most in the Country with Western Michigan's Nadame Tucker. David Bailey's pressure rate was right behind Reese's at 21.3% while his pass rush win rate was a stellar 21.6%.
The New York Jets will likely take Arvell Reese, who is a risky pick, with a ton of upside, and the potential to be a total flop. The success of the pick is going to come down to how well Aaron Glenn and his staff can develop Reese as a full-time edge rusher.
While Reese has the potential to become a superstar in the NFL, David Bailey has the potential to make the Jets look foolish once again. Bailey is going to step into the NFL as an instant contributor at edge rusher with 10+ sack potential as a rookie. The Jets will need to hope they hit a home run with Arvell Reese as Bailey could torture them for the next decade or more if they miss on the 2nd overall pick.