No conference in college football came close to matching the chaos we saw in the Big 12 last season. Once again, the league appears wide open with several teams having a legitimate shot at the Conference Title.
While the top teams may not be on the same level as those in other conferences, the Big 12 has strong depth and several high-level experienced quarterbacks who know what it takes to win. With the craziness of last season and the uncertainty heading into this year, the Big 12 feels like the one conference where anything can happen.
With that said, here are the five biggest “what ifs” for Big 12 football in the 2025 season.
What if Baylor and TCU build on their late-season momentum from 2024?
Both Baylor and TCU finished last season scorching hot. The Bears won their final six regular-season games before falling in their bowl game, while TCU won six of their last seven with that lone loss coming against Baylor.
This has caused a lot of buzz surrounding these teams as potential breakout contenders this season, and it helps that each returns a starting quarterback who put up impressive numbers in 2024. The Horned Frogs’ Josh Hoover finished in the top 10 in all of college football in passing yards while Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson really hit his stride late in the year. Over the final seven games, Robertson averaged 289 passing yards per game, helping lead the Bears to an average of 40 points per contest during that stretch.
We will learn a lot about these teams early on as Baylor faces one of the toughest non-conference schedules, and TCU opens the season on the road against North Carolina. If either team can carry their late-season momentum into 2025 and enter conference play unscathed, they could quickly rise to the top of the Big 12 conversation.
What if Avery Johnson is the breakout star of the Big 12?
Kansas State showed their confidence in Avery Johnson when they chose to move forward with him as their quarterback and let Will Howard walk. While Howard would go on to win a national championship, Johnson had a solid season but fell short of the expectations many had for him going into 2024.
Now entering his second year as the full-time starter, the dual-threat quarterback certainly has the talent, experience, and tools around him to take a significant step forward. We have seen many quarterbacks make a major leap between years one and two, and Johnson’s name is one that seems to have gotten lost in the shuffle of starting quarterbacks heading into this season. The Wildcats are currently the betting favorites to win the Big 12, and if Avery Johnson is at the top of his game, they’ll have a strong shot at making that happen.
What if Rich Rodriguez and Scott Frost pick up right where they left off at West Virginia and UCF?
While neither of these teams were part of the Big 12 during these coaches’ previous tenures, both programs reached their peak and competed on a national level under their leadership. Neither coach has come close to replicating that same success elsewhere, but they have shown the ability to be successful at these schools.
Scott Frost left UCF after a 13-0 season in 2017, but accumulated a 16-31 record during his embarrassing stint at Nebraska. Rich Rod led West Virginia to three straight 10+ win seasons before leaving, and most recently had a lot of success at Jacksonville State. With the current state of their programs and preseason odds placing these teams near the bottom, a full resurgence in the first year seems unlikely, but crazier things have happened in college football.
What if the wheels fall off for Coach Prime at Colorado?
This is a big season for head coach Deion Sanders, as it marks his first year at Colorado without stars Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. The Buffaloes had a strong showing in 2024, and at one point were contending for the conference title and a playoff spot. However, let’s not forget the 2023 season when the team completely fell apart down the stretch losing its final six games.
While Coach Prime has proven he can recruit elite talent, he still has to show that he can build a competitive and well-rounded team that is not reliant on just one or two star players.
The quarterback situation remains unknown at the moment, with Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter and five-star freshman Julian Lewis competing for the starting job. This is obviously a critical decision for Coach Prime in choosing between an experienced starter and a hot shot freshman, and it could have a major impact on the outcome of Colorado’s season. Even with a terrible year, I doubt Deion’s job would be in jeopardy, but it could lead Coach Prime to question if Colorado is the right place for him.
What if it is a repeat of last season?
Now I am not talking about a repeat in terms of Arizona State winning it all or the same teams finishing at the top. I'm talking about another wild season where we see a repeat of the conference being turned completely upside down.
Last year’s champion, Arizona State, was picked to finish last in the Big 12 preseason poll, while teams like Utah, Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Arizona were projected near the top and finished the season at the bottom of the standings.
This year the Big 12 decided not to release a preseason poll, likely because of how silly the one from last year ended up looking. However, if we go off of what the odds say, we could see teams like Houston, Oklahoma State, or Cincinnati have surprisingly good seasons, while programs such as Kansas State, Texas Tech, or even Arizona State could struggle. As I said, no one really knows what to expect from the Big 12 in 2025, so another massive shake-up would not be that surprising.