The Path to the 12-team College Football Playoff Week 13: The day the SEC died

Football is a three-phase game, and Week 13 in the 2024 College Football season was shaping up to be the week of special teams. In the Big Ten, it was. Ohio State had a punt return touchdown to turn the tide against Indiana, and Penn State escaped an upset bid at Minnesota with a fake punt in the fourth quarter, but then the SEC exploded, so who really cares about punters? 

This was the perfect year for the arrival of the 12-team College Football Playoff, at least if you’re SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, The SEC doesn’t have a clear dominant team and even in a weekend when half of the league was facing cupcake opponents and the conference didn’t feature a single ranked vs. ranked matchup, chaos ensued. 

No. 7 Alabama, No. 9 Ole Miss, and No. 15 Texas A&M all took their third loss of the season. If this season occurred throughout the past decade of college football, the conference that dominated the CFP era would be in danger of missing out completely. Week 13 was the day the SEC died, and somehow, it’s still in the mix to get four or even five teams into the 12-team CFP, and we only have one week of the regular season left. 

We’ve almost made it down the entire Path to the 12-team College Football Playoff, so let’s remember to enjoy our final few weeks together. 

The Statements

The biggest wins of Week 13

1. Buckeyes battle injuries

No. 2 Ohio State’s week ended much better than it started with a 38-15 win over No. 5 Indiana in Columbus on Saturday afternoon to get to 10-1. The win came without starting center and likely All-American, Seth McLaughlin who tore his Achilles during Tuesday’s practice and was lost for the season. 

Now, Ohio State is without two of its best starters along the offensive line in McLaughlin and left tackle Josh Simmons, who was lost for the year with a knee injury he suffered in the loss to Oregon. Those injuries have moved left guard Donovan Jackson to left tackle, last year’s starting center Carson Hinzman from left guard back to center, and Austin Siereveld between the two at left guard. 

On Saturday, Chip Kelly’s offense averaged 10.6 yards on seven carries to the right side of center compared to 3.1 yards on 12 carries to the left, and Will Howard had his lowest average depth of target and quickest time to throw since Week 5. Those trends could be more impactful in a potential rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game or the CFP but didn’t matter against Indiana because Jim Knowles’s defense completely shut down the Hoosiers. 

Indiana’s offense produced a 42% success rate and moved the ball surprisingly well on the ground with 19 “successful” runs, but Knowles sensed he could overwhelm the Hoosiers and quarterback Kurtis Rourke. After Rourke led an 11-play 70-yard touchdown drive to take a 7-0 lead, the Buckeyes turned up the heat. 

Knowles blitzed Rourke on 10 of his 23 dropbacks and sacked him five times on just seven pressures. For the season, Rourke has torched the blitz and thrived under pressure, he just hasn’t seen defensive talent like Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau, and Cody Simon. That trio accounted for all five sacks. 

Ohio State’s offense can’t withstand any more injuries to its offensive line, it could be hard to stay afloat with this many, but Knowles’ defense can carry Ryan Day and Kelly’s offense to a national title. That side of the ball is the biggest reason that the Buckeyes are still the betting favorites to win it all even without McLaughlin. 

The death penalty

They may not be mathematically eliminated, but with a loss this week, these teams are no longer CFP contenders. 

2. Kiffin can't close the deal

Two weeks ago, Lane Kiffin scored Ole Miss its biggest win in program history, knocking off Georgia in Oxford. Then, on Saturday in Gainesville, Billy Napier, DJ Lagway, and the Florida Gators made sure that win went to waste. Florida took down Ole Miss 24-17 thanks to back-to-back interceptions from Jaxson Dart with a chance to tie the game in the fourth quarter. 

Now with three losses, to Kentucky, LSU, and Florida, all teams out of the CFP race in the SEC, the Rebels are essentially eliminated from contention, despite having one of the most impressive wins of the season on its resume. 

It wasn’t just Dart’s first multi-interception game since the 2022 Texas Bowl against Texas Tech that did the Rebels in, it was their most reliable offensive player, 330-pound defensive lineman JJ Pegues. 

Coming into the game, Pegues, who Kiffin uses as his short-yard wildcat quarterback, had a 100% success rate on his 12 carries with six touchdowns and six first downs. Florida stopped Pegues short twice on fourth down, leading to 10 points the other way. Ole Miss was stuffed on 23% of its runs in this game, up from 15.6% for the season, and when your short-yardage cheat code gets neutralized, it costs you on late downs and in the red zone. 

The Rebels went 3/14 on third down, 2/4 on fourth, and with a missed field goal and two fourth-down failures, came away with zero points on three trips to the red zone. Losing red zone roulette is a great way to get upset. 

With Ole Miss, Alabama, and Texas A&M all joining South Carolina as three-loss SEC teams this week, it’s almost a certainty that a three-loss team will make the CFP, and it’s just as likely that it won’t be the Rebels. 

“I promise you one thing…”

With a 12-team CFP, one loss doesn’t end your season anymore, and two might not either

3. No Cigs in Columbus

Indiana may have been the No. 5 team in the country at 10-0, but the Hoosiers were 10.5-point underdogs on the road in Columbus against the No. 2 Buckeyes, and to pull an upset on the road, you’ve got to be nearly perfect, in all three phases. 

Indiana was far from perfect on offense and defense, but even if they were, Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers still wouldn’t have had a chance because they were a disaster on special teams. Tied 7-7 with 1:41 left in the first half after a red zone fourth-down stop and a red zone interception from the Indiana defense, punter James Evans fumbled the snap and set up the Buckeyes at the seven-yard line, which three plays later became seven points. 

Then, after Indiana’s first drive of the second half ended in a three-and-out, Ohio State safety Caleb Downs returned Evans’s punt 79 yards for a score. That’s 14 points for Ohio State off punts in a game that ended 38-15. 

Coming into the week, there were arguments about whether an 11-1 Indiana would make the CFP field. It’s still a question after this performance, but a one-loss Big Ten team, regardless of strength of schedule, has to be in over SEC teams like Alabama, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss that took their third loss this week. 

Indiana was completely outmatched by Ohio State, so if the Hoosiers do get another shot at one of the best teams in the country, they can’t spot them two touchdowns and expect to compete. 

4. Jalen Mil-road

It’s not clear why, but Jalen Milroe and Kalen DeBoer don’t seem to like travel. The Crimson Tide are unbeaten at home, averaging 41.4 points per game with wins over Georgia, South Carolina, and Missouri. And after Saturday night's embarrassing 24-3 loss to a lifeless Oklahoma team in Norman, are 2-3 on the road and 1-3 on the road in conference play and averaging 27.8 points with losses to Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and now, the Sooners. 

Alabama’s entire offense played poorly with multiple drops and little ability to establish the run, but Milroe put the Crimson Tide in a hole with interceptions on back-to-back possessions to start the second half, which dug a hole that even the most physically talented quarterback in the country couldn’t climb out of.

Alabama has particularly massive offensive tackles with 6-foot-7 360-pound left tackle Kadyn Proctor and 6-foot-6 327-pound right tackle Elijah Pritchett, who are built to maul in the run game. That’s how the Crimson Tide beat Georgia in the SEC title game last year, but they failed to do it on Saturday and once they fell behind, Oklahoma’s defensive ends could pin their ears back and win with speed. Milroe struggled on the ground with just seven yards on 15 carries and was even worse under pressure completing two of his seven attempts for five yards with an interception. 

In some ways, Saturday night’s struggles for DeBoer and Milroe were specific to the matchup against Brent Venables’s defense, but in others, it's a trend for the Tide away from Tuscaloosa. 

Milroe could still be the most dangerous quarterback, or even single player in the playoff if Alabama earns a bid, but that’s only if good Milroe shows up and a first-round home game is entirely out of the question with three losses. 

5. Time for Chaos in College Station

Inadvertently, Texas A&M made next week’s rekindling of its rivalry with Texas, that much more exciting. With Auburn’s win 43-41 four-overtime win over Mike Elko’s Aggies at Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday night, along with Ole Miss and Alabama’s losses, Georgia clinched a spot in the SEC title game and the Bulldogs will play the winner of Texas/Texas A&M at Kyle Field next Saturday. 

The two teams have played 118 times (Texas leads the series 76-37-5), but they haven’t played since 2011 and the head-to-head is 3-3 in the last three meetings. Neither has ever made the SEC title game, which isn’t a surprise for the Longhorns, having joined the conference this season. 

A&M could have had a shot at an at-large bid with a win over Auburn, which came in with one SEC victory this season, but the Aggies fell behind 21-0 in the first quarter, and despite completely stifling Auburn through the fourth quarter allowed a 15-play 75-yard field goal drive across the final 2:28, to send the game to overtime. Even then, Amari Daniels dropped Texas A&M’s final two-point conversion attempt to match Auburn in the fourth OT, which sets up a perfectly straightforward Week 14 in College Station. Win and you’re in. 

Conference Championship Clincher

6. Rhett Lashlee’s great week continues

With a 9-1 start to the season heading into Week 13, Rhett Lashlee earned a contract extension that should tie him to SMU for the foreseeable future. Then, on Saturday, Lashlee’s Mustangs clinched a spot in the ACC title game with a 33-7 win at Virginia. 

Lashlee’s statement season in the ACC has been all about the explosive plays that quarterback Kevin Jennings has been able to create, but the Cavaliers held his offense to a 6% explosive play rate (half of its season average), so his defense made a bit of a statement. 

SMU held UVA to 2.47 yards per play, a 29% success rate, and just 173 total yards. The Mustangs sacked Anthony Colandrea nine times and pressured him on over half of his 45 dropbacks. 

Though he missed out on a sack and has just four on the year, SMU defensive end Elijah Roberts continues to be one of the most underrated pass rushers in the country. He had six quarterback pressures against UVA to get to 50 total on the season, the third most in the country. His 17.5% pass rush win rate is the 11th best in the nation, and third in the ACC. Roberts missed last week’s win over Boston College with an injury, but with him back, SMU’s defense continues to make strides. 

If Indiana isn’t the biggest beneficiary of the SEC’s cataclysmic weekend, the ACC could be. It’s likely back to a two-bid league with SMU and Miami or Clemson. The Hurricanes will clinch the other spot in the ACC title game with a win over Syracuse next week, and Clemson will take it with a loss. 

The Big 12 vs. Boise State

In last week’s 12-team CFP reveal, Boise State, not the Big 12 champion, claimed the No. 4 seed and final first-round bye as the fourth-highest-ranked conference champion. Now, it’s a battle between the Broncos and the Big 12 for the No. 4 seed as the country’s weakest power conference continues to descend into chaos. 

7. Coach Prime can’t stop Kansas

No. 16 Colorado controlled its own destiny to the Big 12 championship game, but it’s the Big 12, so 4-5 Kansas rolled to a 37-21 win over the Buffaloes at Arrowhead Stadium. The Jayhawks took out Iowa State In Week 11, BYU last Saturday, and now Colorado, as Lance Leipold’s team fully embodies the role of spoiler. 

Boise State fans have to love this Kansas team continually taking out the best team in the Big 12, and they probably find rooting for the Jayhawks and Devin Neal familiar. Neal did a convincing Ashton Jeanty impression on Saturday with 207 yards and three touchdowns on 37 carries, plus another 80 yards and a score through the air. 

Everyone knew Coach Prime’s team had problems in the trenches, and even a hyper-efficient outing from Shedeur Sanders with eight catches for 125 yards, and two touchdowns from Travis Hunter couldn’t overcome them. Kansas outgained Colorado 331-42 on the ground, which is not great, Bob. 

With this loss, and the other results throughout the conference today, there is a very real possibility of a four-team tie atop the conference between Arizona State, BYU, Colorado, and Iowa State. If all four teams win next week, Iowa State and Arizona State will take the two spots in the conference title game via tiebreakers. So, Coach Prime needs some help. 

8. Kenny Dillingham can’t keep the fans off the field

Virtually out of nowhere, 34-year-old Kenny Dillingham’s Arizona State Sun Devils control their own destiny to win the Big 12 after a 3-9 record in the Pac-12 last season. The Sun Devils beat No. 14 BYU in Tempe 28-23 on Saturday, and Arizona State’s student body was a little too excited about Dillingham’s two-year turnaround. 

Arizona State was white-knuckling the entire second half after leading 21-3 at the break. An interception of BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff with under a minute left that set up ASU inside the BYU 10-yard line should have eased the stress, but in a bizarre attempt to burn clock, the Sun Devils ran their final offensive play of the game from midfield. Quarterback Sam Leavitt attempted to drain the final seven seconds of the clock with a fourth-down heave into the stands but left one second for BYU as fans stormed the field and tore down the goalposts. 

Eventually, the fans cleared the field but remained on the sidelines for Retzlaff’s Hail Mary attempt, which was caught a few yards short of the goalline as fans stormed the field… again. That’s the Big 12 in 2024. 

There were plenty of field stormings this week, and this wasn't the only one where the fans stormed the field early and had to clear off for the final play. The same thing happened in Norman, and honestly, it's getting pretty old. Huge upsets in amazing environments are why we love college football, but two things are important, the standards for storming the field need to be raised, and fans need to improve their clock management. Here are a few guidelines I'd propose.

You may storm the field if:

1. Opponent is ranked in the top 5 and home team is unranked
2. Opponent is the No. 1 team in the country
3. Opponent represents first ranked win in 5+ years
4. Win clinches conference title or spot in conference title game
5. Home team is 21+ point underdog

There are unique circumstances like bouncing back from a 3-9 season, but No. 21 Arizona State beating No. 14 BYU and storming the field is just too much for me.

9. Iowa State escapes, again

It was a great weekend for No. 22 Iowa State. Matt Campbell’s team, one of the contenders for a spot in the CFP, needed a fourth-quarter come-from-behind touchdown and a missed field goal with 17 seconds remaining to hang on for a 31-28 win over a Utah team that is now 1-7 and was down to its third-string quarterback Luke Bottari. Yet that qualifies as a great weekend in the Big 12 because any weekend with a win of any kind is a success. 

Iowa State gifted Utah two scores on a pick-six and a punt return touchdown and needed a trick play with running back Carson Hansen throwing a pass after taking a pitch on its final offensive drive of the game to convert a third-and-1 and get down into the red zone. Still a great weekend. The Big 12 is about survival at this point and with their fourth game decided by three points or less, the Cyclones have gotten pretty good at it. 

Whichever team (if any) makes it out of this bloodbath and into the CFP, won’t stand a chance against the top teams in the SEC and Big Ten, especially not Iowa State if Becht continues to turn the ball over. He’s now thrown five of his seven interceptions on the season across his last five games. 

10. Boise State helps along the Big 12 disaster scenario

Boise State came into Week 13 ranked ahead of every Big 12 team at No. 12, and even though the Broncos struggled with Wyoming in a 17-13 win on Saturday night, they’ll almost certainly climb in this week’s CFP rankings with three teams ahead of them losing. 

BYU and Colorado will fall from No. 14 and No. 16 with losses this week, and in last week’s rankings, Arizona State and Iowa State slotted directly behind No. 20 Tulane at No. 21 and 22. With No. 19 Army’s blowout loss to Notre Dame, all three will climb, even with the Green Wave on a bye, and if Tulane wins out and beats Army in the AAC title game, the Mountain West could have the fourth-highest-ranked conference champion, and the American might have the fifth. The real disaster scenario for the Big 12 isn’t just losing out on the first-round bye and No. 4 seed, it’s missing out on the playoff altogether, and it's becoming more realistic with every chaotic week. 

Play the fight song!

Whether by a great play-call or just a great play, the week’s most exciting and important touchdowns

11. Jeremiyah Love’s New York

Kansas’s Devin Neal had the most gaudy statistical performance and would have been the Week 13 Heisman winner if the entire SEC hadn’t decided to pee down its leg in the penultimate week of the regular season and take up all my space in the column. However, if Notre Dame had needed 41 touches from Jeremiyah Love, then maybe he wouldn’t outdone the Jayhawk. 

Instead, Love touched the ball just eight times in No. 6 Notre Dame’s 49-14 blowout win over No. 19 Army at Yankee Stadium and still had a dominant performance. Two days after Aaron Judge won the AL MVP, there was another home run hitter at Yankee Stadium. The 6-foot 206-pound sophomore ran for 130 yards and two touchdowns on seven carries and caught one pass for a six-yard score. 

Coming into the week, this top-20 matchup between Army and Notre Dame was one of the headliners, but it nearly got lost in the wash. Still, I’d caution everyone not to overlook the Irish because, since their loss to NIU, Marcus Freeman’s team has won nine straight with an average margin of 32.6 points per game with three ranked victories. 

More special, special teams plays

12. James Franklin puts it all on the line

If James Franklin can’t get the Penn State Nittany Lions to the CFP this season, that fanbase will do everything it can to run him out of town. So, that made it even more impressive that Franklin played to win in Minnesota, not just not to lose. 

Penn State spotted Minnesota nine points with special teams mishaps in the first half, a blocked punt that set up a touchdown, and a blocked extra point returned for two the other way. So it was fitting that Franklin won it with special teams in the second half. Up 26-25, the eventual final score in Minneapolis, Franklin called a fake punt in his own territory that flipped the field, and with two other fourth-down conversions on the drive, closed out the win for the No. 4 Nittany Lions. 

At 10-1 with Franklin’s perennial punching bag Maryland on deck next week, it's safe to say that Penn State will play in the new postseason for the first time.