The Path to the 12-team College Football Playoff Week 12: Good Carson Beck is back

In most place across the country, the weather is finally starting to turn. For some that means relief from a seemingly never-ending summer, for others it means grey skies and early nights for the next few months, and for the Tennessee Volunteers it means you need a sideline heater for a 55-degree night in Athens, Georgia. Either way, a cool fall afternoon is the perfect recipe for a nap, and this week, if you found yourself resting your eyes, I can’t say I blame you. 

As far as the true 12-team College Football Playoff contenders go, the early slates of Week 12 were fairly sleepy. Once the sun went down, though, the college football Saturday came to life. A top 12 SEC showdown in Athens headlined the affair and from what I heard (I refuse to watch meme boxing) it delivered better than the Friday night main event between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul. Not to mention, a feisty underdog had the No. 1 team in the country on the ropes. 

Week 12 won’t be one you tell your grandkids about, but it brought us a step closer to the CFP, and as we walk along The Path, the picture becomes clearer and clearer.

The Statements

The biggest wins of Week 12

1. Carson Beck-yll and Mr. Mike

If Georgia fans have started to forget what losing was like, could you really even blame them? Before this year, Kirby Smart hadn’t lost two games in a season since 2020, so even with the Bulldogs firmly in contention for a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff, Carson Beck and offensive coordinator Mike Bobo have spent much of 2024 in hot water. 

Beck entered the season as the likely No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft and a Heisman Trophy candidate. Bobo, on the other hand wasn’t exactly a fan favorite, but both were to blame for an offense that has ranked outside the top 40 in yards per play and a quarterback who leads the country in interceptions. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, and after scoring 10 points in a loss to Ole Miss seven days prior, 2023 Carson Beck reappeared. 

Georgia’s offense has been mired by slow starts as Bobo desperately attempts to establish a unimpressive run game, all the while digging a hole that, on two separate occasions this season, was too big to get out of. So, it was a shock when the first play-call of the game from Bobo, whose offense ranks 86th in first half points per game, was a deep shot down the sideline to Arian Smith. Smith dropped it and the Dawgs went three-and-out, but Bobo decided to trust Beck from snap No. 1 against Tennessee, and it paid off with his best game of the season. 

Beck threw for 346 yards and two touchdowns, and ran for another in No. 12 Georgia’s 31-17 win over No. 7 Tennessee at Sanford Stadium. One of Georgia’s touchdown passes was vintage Beck, lacing one into a tight window over the middle of the field, the other was Bobo scheming Oscar Delp wide open. 

Georgia’s fifth-year quarterback wasn’t perfect. He even missed a wide-open touchdown late in the game, but Kirby Smart has never needed a perfect quarterback to win a national championship. With Bobo creating mismatches out of bunch formations and getting Beck on the move outside the pocket, this version of the Georgia offense can be good, and that’s good enough. 

The Bulldogs are 8-2 with UMass and Georgia Tech at home left on the the schedule. Considering that they played the toughest schedule of any team in the country, 10 wins will lock up an at-large bid, but if Beck reverts to 12-interception Beck, their CFP stay won’t last long. 

2. SMU is still alive

After SMU’s Week 2 loss to BYU, I buried the Mustangs. Rhett Lashlee’s team was mired in a quarterback controversy and only two weeks removed from nearly falling to Nevada in Week 0. The offensive line couldn’t block, and the offense couldn’t function. Two weeks later, coming off the bye, they hung 66 points on TCU with Kevin Jennings as the full-time starter and have gone a casual 6-0 through ACC play. 

Well, maybe not that casual. In Week 12, the Mustangs had their hands full with the Thomas Castellanos-less Boston College Eagles before pulling away late in the fourth quarter 38-28. So, how has Lashlee done it? How did a team that nearly lost to Nevada back in August turn into a bonafide CFP contender? Well, they didn’t fix the offensive line, I’ll tell you that. 

On Saturday, Jennings was only pressured eight times and wasn’t sacked, but for the year, he’s been under duress on over 30% of his dropbacks. It just hasn’t mattered. Jennings has a pressure-to-sack rate of 12.3%, 27th best in the country, he’s scrambled for 134 yards, but most importantly, he becomes a big game hunter. Jennings is only completing 50% of his throws against pressure, but with an average depth of target of 13.8, he’s averaging 11.1 yards per attempt, the best in the country.

SMU is well on its way to the ACC championship game, and while I’m still picking Miami to win that head-to-head, Jennings is leading one of the few offenses in the country that has a chance of keeping pace with Cam Ward and the Hurricanes. 

“I promise you one thing…”

With a 12-team CFP, one loss doesn’t end your season anymore, and two might not either

3. BYU out of magic

BYU was one of the most unlikely 9-0 teams in recent memory. That’s not just based on preseason perception, but also how those nine wins have come. They blitzed Kansas State with 17 points in the final seven minutes of the first half, escaped against Oklahoma State with a 35-yard game-winning touchdown with 10 seconds remaining, and survived the Holy War with an 11-play 65-yard field goal drive aided by a questionable defensive holding call. 

Then, on Saturday night in Provo, the Cougars fell 17-13 to Kansas.  The Jayhawk’s ultimate game-winning touchdown came courtesy of a Jalon Daniels pooch punt off a BYU defender’s helmet that was recovered by Kansas at the BYU three-yard line. Jake Retzlaff tried to lead the Cougars back but was stopped on fourth down in the red zone. 

BYU learned an important lesson on Saturday night, if your one trick is pulling a rabbit out of a hat, you better not forget the rabbit. 

Kalani Sitake’s team is still alive for a spot in the Big 12 title game, likely squaring off with Coach Prime and the Buffaloes, and therefore are not yet dead for a spot in the CFP and even a first-round bye.For everyone's sake, let's hope Colorado wins that football game because this BYU team just doesn't belong.

4. Veer-and-Oh shoot

The entire design of the Josh Heupel veer-and-shoot offense, with its tempo and sideline-to-sideline wide receiver splits, is to create explosive plays. Yet, this season, the Vols are seventh percentile in explosive play rate and barely generated any on Saturday night in Athens. 

Tennessee finished with five explosive plays on the night, and four of those five came in the run game. Nico Iamaleava didn’t complete a pass longer than 17 yards while Carson Beck on the other side had six 20+ yard completions to six different receivers. The Vols got up on Georgia early and were helped by a pass interference call on a deep shot to Donte Thornton Jr. on the first drive of the game, but once they fell behind, they had no answer. 

Even in his most prolific passing years in Knoxville, Huepel has been adamant that his offense is built around the run game, but I can’t imagine he’d want to be this reliant on it. When they aren’t running the ball, they’re almost always faking it. Iamaleava leads the country in play-action pass rate at over 60% of his dropbacks and his yards per attempt drops from 9.6 to 6.5 without it. When the Vols are behind, RPOs become less effective and play-action becomes irrelevant, so they don’t have any answer. 

This has been a problem all season and at this point, there’s no clear solution other than to take the training wheels off for the redshirt freshman and let him either sink or swim as a true dropback passer. With two losses and diminishing CFP odds, though, Heupel may not have the stomach for that, and with his elite defense, he can still grab an at-large spot. 

Tennessee can absolutely still make the College Football Playoff, but in every big game, Iamaleava has had the same big problem, so I’m eliminating the Vols from my list of teams I could see winning the national championship. Here’s how it currently stands (in no particular order):

• Oregon
• Ohio State
• Texas
• Georgia
• Alabama
• Ole Miss
• Notre Dame
• Miami

Does defense still win championships?

If so, that’s good news for these teams

5. Buckeye bully ball

The questions in Columbus heading into the year, and throughout the season, have all been about an offense that brought in a new quarterback and had to replace Marvin Harrison Jr. So, Will Howard and Jeremiah Smith have overshadowed just how excellent the Ohio State defense has been under DC Jim Knowles this season. 

After a 31-7 win over Northwestern at Wrigley Field on Saturday, the Buckeyes are allowing 10.3 points per game this season through their 9-1 start. That’s the best in the country and nearly identical to Michigan’s 10.4 ppg en route to the national championship last season. As the FOX broadcast pointed out, since 2010, only three teams have finished the year allowing fewer than 11 points per game, 2011-12 Alabama (7.1), 2021-22 Georgia (10.4), and 2023-24 Michigan, and all three won the national title. 

Are the Buckeyes on that level? They certainly have the talent to be, but the numbers don’t quite paint the picture of an all-time great unit. The one time that Ohio State faced an elite offense this season, it allowed 32 points to Oregon and was outmatched by the Duck’s talented wide receivers. If Indiana can do the same thing next week in Columbus, we’ll have our answer. 

6. Taylen Green got the (long)horns

After making a trip to the four-team CFP as the Big 12 champs last season, Steve Sarkisian lost Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat in the first two rounds of the NFL draft, and his defense got better. 

Fifth-year senior Alfred Collins has blossomed into a star, filling the vacuum left by Murphy and Sweat along the Texas defensive line. In the Longhorn’s 20-10 win over Arkansas in Fayetteville, Collins had a sack, two tackles for loss, a forced fumble, and four total run-game stops. Across the last five games, Collins has generated 12 quarterback pressures after getting to the QB just twice across the first five games of the season. 

In the secondary, cornerback Jahdae Barron, who was a second-team AP midseason All-American, has upped his game even further. He’s been dominant in coverage, erasing some of the best receivers in the SEC, but in Week 12, DC Pete Kwiatkowski unleashed him as a pass-rusher, pressuring Arkansas QB Taylen Green three times and bringing him down once. 

Aside from last week’s blowout win over Florida, since Quinn Ewers has returned from injury the Texas offense has struggled to find its footing. Ewers looks a half-beat slow as a decision-maker and isn’t hitting deep shots, which has limited Sark’s play-calling, so the Longhorns need their defensive stars to carry them, and in Week 12, Collins and Barron did. 

7. Danny Dice-Roll gets bailed out

Over his 2+ seasons as the head coach of the Oregon Ducks, Dan Lanning has never been afraid to roll the dice. Lanning, a former defensive coordinator, doesn’t love to let his defense decide his fate, but this time instead of Bo Nix or Dillon Gabriel determining his destiny, Lanning rolled the dice with Ross James. 

Up 16-13 with 1:49 remaining and facing fourth-and-4 from the Wisconsin 20-yard line, Lanning dialed up a fake field goal that was stopped short and gave the Badgers another chance to tie the game. Two plays later, Lanning’s defense bailed him out, getting to Wisconsin QB Braedyn Locke and batting a pass that was intercepted by Matayo Uiagalelei. 

Oregon had to win ugly, and Danny Dice-Roll didn’t make it any easier, but the Duck’s defense bailed out Dillon Gabriel & Co. to get to 11-0 with a 16-13 win. This team will be fine against Washington in two weeks and will be in the CFP either way, but one thing to keep in mind is Dillon Gabriel’s propensity for red zone turnovers. On Saturday night he threw his fifth interception of the year and his fourth thrown inside the opponent's 20-yard line. When the windows get tight, the lefty doesn’t always have the arm strength to finish off the drive. 

And the Week 12 Heisman goes to…

8. Colorado CB/WR Travis Hunter

Travis Hunter is the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, and the best player in college football just keeps adding to his absurd resume. In Colorado’s 49-24 Week 12 win over Utah, Hunter caught five passes for 55 yards, including an absurd fourth-down conversion that led to a touchdown before halftime, one carry for five yards and a touchdown, three tackles, a pass breakup, and an interception. 

Hunter now has 74 catches for 911 yards and nine touchdowns with a 10th on the ground. He routinely makes plays on both sides of the ball that few if any others in college football can, and with Colorado in the mix to win the Big 12, the lack of team success argument that could have kept the hardware out of his hands is entirely off the table. 

Play the fight song!

Whether by a great play-call or just a great play, the week’s most exciting and important touchdowns

9. Cade Klubnik keeps Clemson alive

There were plenty of important scores in Week 12, but as far as CFP implications, there may not have been any more important than Cade Klubnik’s 50-yard touchdown run to take down Pitt 24-20 and keep Clemson’s season alive. 

SMU and Miami are still favored to make the ACC title game, but the ESPN broadcast gave Clemson around a 20% chance to still make the CFP out of what is almost certainly a one-bid league. A second ACC loss would have been devastating for the Tigers. Dabo Swinney’s team would be an easy out in the CFP quarterfinals, and I don’t expect them to get there, but Klubnik’s great play this season has given them a chance. 

Group of Fun All-Stars

10. Superstar Showcase in San Jose

You could call me a Group of Five hater and I’m not sure I’d protest. This column was born out of my desire to watch/write about the games that matter in college football, and as far as the national championship goes, the Group of Five almost never matters. But that doesn’t mean I’m not watching. 

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty leads the nation in rushing yards, we all know that. But did you know that heading into Week 12, San Jose State wide receiver Nick Nash led the country in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns? The self-proclaimed sickos do, but there aren’t enough people who have taken the time to watch the Spartan’s 6-foot-3 senior who is more efficient with a greater workload than just about every receiver in the country. Hopefully after Saturday, a few more have. 

The No. 13 Broncos had trailed for just 53 minutes all season, but Nash’s Spartans jumped out to a 14-0 lead and, aided by a failed fake FG and a fumbled kickoff return by Boise State, didn’t relinquish it until the second half. Nash caught nine passes for 126 yards and a score, and his team’s defense kept Jeanty in check for a half, holding him to 55 yards and a touchdown, but he exploded after the break. 

Spencer Danielson fed Jeanty with 31 carries and tackling the 5-foot-9 215-pound Heisman Trophy candidate just gets tiring. He racked up 159 yards and three touchdowns, reaching 26 rushing scores on the season. His usage stands out just as much as Nash's. 

11. John, will you wipe Mateer, we can’t stop Devon Dampier

At No. 18, Washington State, a Pac-12 castoff, was in the mix for the College Football Playoff before a Week 12 trip to Albuquerque, New Mexico. Bronco Mendenhall’s quarterback Devon Dampier has been a superstar in the Mountain West and Jake Dickert’s QB John Mateer has dominated in the college football abyss that the Cougars have been banished to. On Saturday night, they met, and Dampier led the New Mexico Lobos to their first win over a ranked opponent in 20 years and issued Wazzou the death penalty. 

If you stayed up late on Friday night, you didn’t see many haymakers from Tyson and Paul, but if you tuned into the late-night Mountain West action, you saw two quarterbacks going for the knockout. Mateer threw for 375 yards and four touchdowns with nine carries for 68 yards and a score, but was outdone by Dampier’s 174 and a score through the air and 193 and three touchdowns, including the game-winner in the final minute, on the ground. 

UCF 2017 National Championship Memorial Group of Five Team of the Week

12. Tulane Green Wave

No. 25 Tulane entered Week 12 still undefeated in American Athletic Conference play and with a chance to clinch a spot opposite Army in the AAC Championship game. Navy stood in the way of the Green Wave, but the Midshipmen were quickly washed ashore. 

To finish as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, Tulane first has to win the AAC title, but along the way, Jon Sumrall’s team needs to keep racking up the style points. They accomplished that in Week 11 with a 52-6 win over Temple that elevated them into the CFP top 25, but 35-0 over 7-2 Navy in Annapolis this Saturday is even more impressive. Navy quarterback Blake Horvath went down with an injury in the first quarter, but regardless, Tulane only allowed 113 total yards of offense and 2.41 yards per play. 

After a bye, Tulane plays Memphis in the final week of the regular season before meeting Army in the AAC championship game. Sumrall’s team may still need a Boise State loss to crack the door to the CFP, but the Green Wave would be the scariest G5 opponent for whoever claims the No. 5 seed.