Every year, college football fans talk themselves into the idea that their team has a real shot at making the College Football Playoff.
But let’s be honest—once you look past the hype, preseason rankings, and “dark horse” chatter, the actual number of contenders is way smaller than you'd think. Now that the playoff in in its second season with 12 teams, it feels like the door is open wider than ever—but the truth is, not every program is built to walk through it.
Whether it's because of schedule, talent, coaching, or just the gauntlet that is conference play, only a select few schools have a realistic path.
So how many teams can actually make the College Football Playoff in 2025? Let’s break it down.
ACC
Playoff Contenders: Clemson, Miami
Darkhorses: Louisville, Georgia Tech, SMU
The ACC is looking like the conference with a ton of teams that will be improved, but perhaps not many top-15 teams, outside of Clemson, Miami, and perhaps one other. Louisville, Georgia Tech, and SMU are three teams that could compete in any league in the country, but they're still darkhorses to make the field.
Big Ten
Playoff Contenders: Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State
Darkhorses: Michigan, Illinois, Indiana
Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State are the favorites from the Big Ten. There will likely be one other team separate themselves as a playoff contender in the Big Ten, but it remains to be seen who that will be.
Big 12
Playoff Contenders: Arizona State, Texas Tech, BYU
Darkhorses: Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State
The Big 12 is going to be a very competitive conference in 2025 and, honestly, it wouldn't be all that shocking if they had multiple teams good enough to make it to the playoff. That being said, it feels like they might cannibalize themselves before it's all said and done.
SEC
Playoff Contenders: Texas, Georgia, Alabama, LSU
Darkhorses: South Carolina, Florida, Texas A&M, Ole Miss
You've got the normal names at the top of the SEC and it will be hard for anyone to break in to that group. That being said, there are a few teams to keep your eye on with South Carolina leading the darkhorse group.
Group of 5/Independent
Playoff Contenders: Notre Dame, Boise State, UNLV
Darkhorses: James Madison, Navy
Notre Dame feels like a favorite to get back to the playoff, but it will be interesting to see who gets the Group of 5 spot. Right now, Boise State and UNLV are the two favorites but James Madison could be one to sneak into the rankings before the season ends.