The 12-team College Football Playoff has created more opportunity for more programs to reach a bigger stage, and potentially compete for a national championship. The expanded bracket has opened the door for many programs to get into the field, compared to the four-team format when it felt like the same handful of teams in the playoff each season.Â
Last year, half of the playoff field consisted of teams making their first-ever College Football Playoff appearance and through the first two seasons of the expanded format, 12 different programs earned their first trip to the CFP. Let's take a look at the five teams with the best chance to make their first College Football Playoff appearance in 2026.
USC has been on the doorstep of the College Football Playoff several times under Lincoln Riley but has yet to break through. The Trojans are head and shoulders above the other teams on this list in terms of expectations, and 2026 feels like a true make-or-break season for Riley in Southern California. USC certainly has the talent to do it, especially with Jayden Maiava who is one of the top returning quarterbacks in college football. Per usual with the Trojans, their playoff hopes will likely come down to how they perform in their biggest games with this season being against Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana.
The Cougars are coming off a season in which they just missed the CFP and after a wild offseason, BYU was able to retain head coach Kalani Sitake who will always have his team competitive. They also bring back quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who was one of the top true freshmen in college football last season and will look to use that experience to take a big step forward in year two. The Big 12 appears to run through Texas Tech entering the season, but BYU will not have to face the Red Raiders during the regular season and look to be the conference’s strongest contender. The Big 12 has had six different champions over the past six seasons, and BYU has a strong chance to keep that streak alive, or earn their way in through an at-large bid.
Jon Sumrall is stepping into a Florida program that is starving for success as they haven’t even come close to a CFP berth. The transfer portal has made it more realistic for new coaches to have success in their first season, and Sumrall has taken advantage by retooling the roster, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Sumrall and Florida also benefit from a somewhat more favorable SEC schedule compared to recent seasons, avoiding matchups with Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, and Tennessee. However, no SEC schedule is easy. If Sumrall can lead the Gators to their first College Football Playoff appearance in his first season in Gainesville, it would be one of the biggest accomplishments of the season.
Everyone knows what to expect from Iowa: a dominant defense and a strong rushing attack that can keep them in any game. The Hawkeyes have been in a good position to make the playoff at some point during each of the past two seasons, but have stumbled in critical moments down the stretch. As always, quarterback will be the biggest question for Iowa, but this offense will lean heavily on its run game. Kamari Moulton returns to go along with L.J. Phillips Jr. who transferred in from South Dakota after leading the FCS in rushing in 2025. The schedule is more favorable this year with their toughest tests coming early against Michigan and getting to play Ohio State at Kinnick Stadium, and a back half of the season where they could roll when you want to be at your best for the playoff committee. The Big Ten will send multiple teams to the CFP, and longtime head coach Kirk Ferentz will be hungry to get the Hawkeyes to their first playoff appearance before he hangs it up, with this season potentially being their best chance to do so.
Houston is quietly coming off a 10-3 season in 2025, and while it may seem hard to call a season where you don’t make the playoff with a 12 team field a major success, last year certainly was for the Cougars. Head coach Willie Fritz is a proven winner who is entering his third season at Houston with a roster that will lean heavily on transfer portal additions. The Cougars do return starting quarterback Conner Weigman, who was a pleasant surprise last season after transferring in from Texas A&M. In addition, Houston is one of a very few Power Conference programs returning their head coach, starting quarterback, and both offensive and defensive coordinators from a year ago. The Big 12 has become known as the conference of chaos in recent seasons, and Houston could be a dark-horse contender in the league in 2026.
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