Updated Big 12 Championship tiebreakers and scenarios after Week 12

Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire signals to the officials during a Big 12 Conference football game, Saturday, Nov. 8, 2025, at Jones AT&T Stadium.
Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire signals to the officials during a Big 12 Conference football game, Saturday, Nov. 8, 2025, at Jones AT&T Stadium. | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The College Football season is rapidly approaching the finish line as there are just 2 games remaining for most teams if not less. The easiest path to the College Football Playoff for most teams is by winning the conference. In the Big 12, there are two clear front runners, but, these final few games could drastically change everything.

Over the final two weeks, there are still 6 teams that will be looking to make it to Arlington, which is truly absurd. There are plenty of scenarios that could send any mix of the 6 to the Big 12 Championship Game which makes every game over these last two weeks meaningful.

Breaking down the scenarios for the Big 12's 6 remaining contenders

Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1, 7-1):

  • Remaining Game: West Virginia

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have the most clear path to the Big 12 Championship of every team with just 1 game remaining this season. Joey McGuire's team just needs to beat the 4-7 West Virginia Mountaineers who are 2-6 in league play, and they'll punch their ticket to Arlington.

BYU Cougars (9-1, 6-1):

  • Remaining Games: Cincinnati and UCF

The BYU Cougars also have a straight forward path to making the Big 12 Championship as they control their own destiny if they win out. If BYU loses, it may end up missing out on the Playoff in a massive tie between 2-loss teams as Utah would have the better winning percentage from it's cumulative conference opponents.

Utah Utes (8-2, 5-2):

  • Remaining Games: Kansas State and Kansas

Given that the Utah Utes already have 2 losses in league play, their scenario is where chaos unfolding begins. The Utes would first have to win their final two games which is certainly possible against Kansas State and Kansas. The easiest path would then be BYU losing it's final two games against Cincinnati and UCF along with Cincinnati losing to TCU as they'd hold a tiebreaker over Utah if both had two losses.

Houston Cougars (8-2, 5-2):

  • Remaining Games: TCU and Baylor

Houston is still alive in the race for the Big 12, but they've played an awful conference schedule meaning they'll need chaos. The Cougars would need to run the table to start which is going to be tough, and then they'd need Utah, Cincinnati, and Arizona State to each lose once along with BYU losing twice in order to make the Conference Championship.

Cincinnati Bearcats (7-3, 5-2):

  • Remaining Games: BYU and TCU

Cincinnati's upset loss to Arizona dealt a massive blow to their chances of making it to the Big 12 Championship Game as they're now in the mix with all of the 2 loss teams. In order to make the Conference Championship, Cincinnati would need to win out while needing losses from Arizona State, Houston, and Utah as they'd then hold the head-to-head tie breaker over BYU.

Arizona State Sun Devils (7-3, 5-2):

  • Remaining Games: Colorado and Arizona

Kenny Dillingham's team is still alive in the race for the Big 12 Championship, but they'd need a ton of help to get there. Aside from winning both of it's last two games, Arizona State would need Texas Tech to lose to West Virginia as the Sun Devils have the head-to-head tie breaker. Both Utah and Cincinnati would have to lose again as well making it almost impossible for this team to make it back.

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