What would the College Football Playoff rankings actually look like in Week 10?
The College Football Playoff Rankings will be released for the first time next Tuesday following a full slate of Week 10 games. But, what if the College Football Playoff committee convened early and released their rankings this week?
What would the rankings look like? What would the committee do with a team like, say, Notre Dame?
The Fighting Irish aren't in any conference, so their only path to the College Football Playoff is by earning an at-large bid. Notre Dame has the worst loss of any contender — Northern Illinois at home — and that shouldn' t just be forgiven. That being said, they also have a couple of quality wins, including one against Texas A&M.
So, what would the playoff rankings look like if the committee released its rankings today? Here's our best guess.
Projected Ranking | Team | Record | AP Ranking |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Oregon | 8-0 | 1 |
2 | Georgia | 6-1 | 2 |
3 | Penn State | 7-0 | 3 |
4 | Miami | 8-0 | 5 |
5 | Texas A&M | 7-1 | 10 |
6 | Texas | 7-1 | 6 |
7 | Ohio State | 6-1 | 4 |
8 | Tennessee | 6-1 | 7 |
9 | Indiana | 8-0 | 13 |
10 | Notre Dame | 7-1 | 8 |
11 | Clemson | 6-1 | 11 |
12 | BYU | 8-0 | 9 |
13 | Iowa State | 7-0 | 11 |
14 | Boise State | 6-1 | 15 |
15 | Alabama | 6-2 | 14 |
16 | Pittsburgh | 8-0 | 18 |
17 | Kansas State | 7-1 | 17 |
18 | LSU | 6-2 | 16 |
19 | SMU | 7-1 | 20 |
20 | Army | 7-0 | 21 |
21 | Ole Miss | 6-2 | 19 |
22 | Washington State | 7-1 | 22 |
23 | Colorado | 6-2 | 23 |
24 | Illinois | 6-2 | 24 |
25 | Missouri | 6-2 | 25 |
Keep in mind this is a projection of what the rankings would look like if they were released this week before Week 10's games.
The biggest change, in my estimation, would feature Texas A&M. The Aggies have one loss on the season and it was in the season-opening game against Notre Dame, who is ranked inside the Top-10. Texas A&M has since won every single game on its schedule, including last week's matchup against LSU. The Aggies are undefeated in SEC play their resume is more impressive than either of the other two one-loss SEC teams not named Georgia.
In addition, there's a little shakeup with two undefeated teams. First, we think you'll see Pittsburgh get a little bit of a bump for being undefeated, whereas BYU would actually take a little bit of a hit. The committee isn't going to just list a team in their Top-10 simply because they're undefeated.
If you compare the resumes of Pitt and BYU, they are actually relatively siimilar, with BYU holding a slightly higher Strength of Record than Pitt, but the Panthers' strength of schedule (101) will hinder them from being any higher than No. 16 until they beat a ranked team or two.
At the end of the rankings, it wouldn't be surprising to see Missouri or Illinois replaced, but right now they're the top two-loss teams still available to fill out the top-25.
We're just a few days away from getting the glimpse at the real College Football Playoff Rankings, so it will be interesting to see what the committee does with these teams when Tuesday comes.
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