Why Tennessee will upset Alabama and keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive

Tennessee football fans, it’s time to get excited because the Vols are ready to take down Alabama this Saturday.

Yes, we know that things haven't been all roses up in Knoxville, particularly the last few weeks. After losing to Arkansas, Tennessee had to come-from-behind and beat Florida in overtime last weekend to avoid falling to two losses in the SEC before ever even getting to the Alabama game.

The Crimson Tide enters this game as a slight 3-point favorite on the road, and there are many reasons to pick Alabama to win this, namely Tennessee's struggles on the offensive side of the ball. But, let's not pretend like Tennessee hasn't shown the ability to have an explosive offense and Alabama's defense has been less-than-stellar thus far.

Here's a look at the path and reasons to believe that Tennessee will upset Alabama in the "Third Saturday in October."

Neyland Stadium: A True Home-Field Advantage

Let's go ahead and get this one out the way first: Neyland Stadium is one of the loudest and most intimidating venues in all of college football, and Tennessee knows how to use that to their advantage. The crowd’s energy will be relentless, putting immense pressure on Alabama from the first snap to the last.

In 2022, the Vols rode that electric atmosphere to a victory over the Crimson Tide, and they’ll look to replicate that success this weekend. With Tennessee fans fired up for a playoff push — and potential elimination with a loss —Neyland could once again be the difference-maker in a tightly contested game.

The Ground Game

Tennessee’s offense thrives on its ability to run the ball, and this week’s matchup offers a great opportunity to wear down Alabama’s defense. The Crimson Tide has struggled against the run this season, and the Vols, led by running back Dylan Sampson, are primed to take full advantage. With the Vols averaging 246 rushing yards per game, they’ll look to dominate the line of scrimmage, control the clock, and keep Alabama’s offense on the sideline.

If Tennessee can establish the run early, it will open up the rest of the playbook and force Alabama into uncomfortable situations.

Protecting Nico Iamaleava

Tennessee’s ability to protect its quarterback, Nico Iamaleava, has been a challenge at times this season, but Alabama’s pass rush is not as fearsome as in years past. The Crimson Tide’s defense has struggled to consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks, which could give Tennessee’s offensive line the break it needs to keep Iamaleava upright.

If Tennessee can provide solid protection, the passing game could exploit Alabama’s vulnerable secondary. Look for the Vols to mix in some quick throws and creative schemes to keep the pressure off Iamaleava and move the ball through the air.

Alabama’s Struggles with Time of Possession

One of the most significant factors working against Alabama this season has been their inability to sustain drives. Currently ranked 109th in the nation in time of possession, the Crimson Tide relies heavily on explosive plays rather than methodical, clock-chewing drives.

This has often left Alabama’s defense on the field for long stretches of time, leading to fatigue and breakdowns late in games. If Tennessee can keep the ball away from Alabama’s offense and wear down their defense through long, sustained drives, they will be in a great position to control the flow of the game. Alabama’s quick-strike offense might score points, but their inability to consistently maintain possession will be a huge advantage for the Vols.

Exploiting Alabama’s Offensive Line Issues

On the defensive side of the ball, Tennessee’s pass rush could play a key role in disrupting Alabama’s offense. The Crimson Tide has been rotating players on the offensive line throughout the season, leading to communication breakdowns and inconsistent protection for quarterback Jalen Milroe.

Tennessee’s defensive front, led by EDGE rusher James Pearce Jr., can exploit this weakness and force Alabama into hurried throws and mistakes. If the Vols can consistently pressure Milroe and disrupt the Tide’s passing game, it will significantly limit Alabama’s ability to generate points.

Ultimately, this seems like a game where Tennessee can "right the ship" and make a significant lead back inside the AP Top-10, but it will all start with pressuring Jalen Milroe on the defensive side of the ball and maintaining possession on the offensive side of the ball.

Tennessee and Alabama will kickoff at 3:30 p.m. E.T. on ABC.