12 most likely College Football Playoff teams after Week 6: Upsets shake Playoff race

Aug 30, 2025; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian watches his team against Ohio State Buckeyes during the first quarter at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Robertson - Imagn Images
Aug 30, 2025; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian watches his team against Ohio State Buckeyes during the first quarter at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Robertson - Imagn Images | Kyle Robertson/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

We're now through Week 6 of the College Football season, which has the race for the College Football Playoff taking shape. This weekend didn't bring a ton of Top 25 matchups but, it brought us two stunning losses which have reshaped the entire College Football Playoff picture.

As we near the midway point of the season, the true contenders and pretenders are revealing themselves. Teams like Penn State, Texas, Clemson, and Florida State have gone from early-season contenders to almost completely out of the race.

These 12 programs have the inside track to the College Football Playoff

Falling out of our race for the College Football Playoff are the Texas Longhorns and the Penn State Nittany Lions. Both teams have yet to win a game against Power 4 opponents, and with 2 losses each, it may be too much of an uphill climb to ever get back into the race.

Whichever team wins the American Conference is most likely to represent the Group of 5 in the College Football Playoff and right now Memphis looks like the team to beat. The Tigers are off to an impressive 6-0 start and their only close game came in the upset win over Arkansas. When Memphis faces USF it will likely decide the race for the league Championship Game but, in the time being this is Memphis' league to lose.

The last two weeks have opened up the ACC as Florida State taking a pair of losses in league play likely knocks them out of the race for the ACC title game. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are the biggest benefactor between the talent on this team and the fact that they have an easy ACC schedule and a game against Georgia. This team should have the best chance to face Miami in the ACC Championship and if their only loss before then is Georgia, they should be in no matter what.

The Alabama Crimson Tide picked up a key win this weekend beating a ranked Vanderbilt team but, they were helped most by the losses elsewhere. This team looks like a much more focused group after their loss but, there are too many big tests lingering to vault them into the shortlist of contenders for the Playoff. Knocking off Missouri this weekend will be the next test in building the Playoff resume and a win could vault them into the top half.

The Oklahoma Sooners survived their first game without John Mateer dominating Kent State as is expected. Everyone now turns their attention to Mateer as Oklahoma may or may not have it's quarterback for the Red River Rivalry game. The good news is that based on how Texas has looked, Oklahoma could turn this into a sloppy game and win with defense if Mateer is sidelined.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders proved once again this weekend they're the team to beat in the Big 12 with a dominant win over Houston. The defense is the best unit in the league and their pass rush is going to make it tough for any team in the conference to knock them off. Big games still loom ahead but, this team is clearly above the rest in a wide-open league.

Curt Cignetti's Indiana Hoosiers got to spend the weekend on the bye as they prepare for their biggest game of the season. This weekend, the Hoosiers go on the road to Eugene to face a red hot Oregon team in a game that will set up the race for the Playoff and the Big Ten.

The Georgia Bulldogs got back on track this weekend, picking up a win over Kentucky, where they were able to reset and cruise to victory. This team has the talent to compete for the SEC Championship and the National Championship, but these next two weeks against Auburn and Ole Miss, they'll have to prove it.

After beating LSU last weekend, Lane Kiffin's team got to spend the weekend on the bye preparing for a big run of SEC games. The biggest question with this team is whether they're going to keep Trinidad Chambliss at quarterback or turn it back over to Austin Simmons. The defense had their best showing of the year against LSU and if they keep getting better this team may finally make the College Football Playoff.

Texas A&M did what good teams do, shutting down a pesky Mississippi State team to pick up the win. The Aggies defense has finally clicked the last two weeks and this team is now good enough on both sides of the ball to compete for an SEC Championship and the National Championship. This weekend brings another winnable game as Florida comes to town while the next big test isn't until the end of the month when the Aggies go to LSU.

The Oregon Ducks spent the weekend on the bye and while their best win gets worse, Penn State falling out of the Big Ten race is helpful. The Ducks now have a massive clash once again as Indiana comes to Eugene and the winner of this game could all but, punch their ticket to the Playoff. Dan Lanning's team has already shown they can win the big game, and they deserve everyone's respect as they haven't lost yet in the Big 10.

Ohio State falls out of the top spot in these rankings for the first time this season but, it was no fault of their own. The Buckeyes dominated Minnesota on Saturday Night as they controlled the game on both sides of the football. Julian Sayin is starting to improve at an incredible rate as Ohio State is taking the training wheels off which could make this team even scarier.

The Miami Hurricanes have far and away the best resume in College Football and after beating the Florida State Seminoles this weekend there aren't any ranked teams left on the schedule. Mario Cristobal's team has improved despite losing Cam Ward as the new look defense is dominant. The key will be avoiding the stunning loss we've seen Mario Cristobal teams take but, this team looks like arguably the best he's ever had.

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