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College Football Picks: Big Ten predictions against the spread for Week 5

By Nate Jacobson

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Making picks against the spread for every Big Ten game for Week 5.

The month of September is the best time of year because football is back. Now we turn the calendar to October where games begin to matter more and each Saturday is filled with competitive conference games. Almost every Big Ten team opens conference play this week.

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In my debut of this article, I finished 9-5 against the spread including two best bet winners involving Minnesota and Illinois. This week the Iowa-Wisconsin game is in my best bets article so check that out for a detailed explanation of why I like the Hawkeyes. Here are the rest of the picks for Week 5:

Army at Penn State (-23.5)

Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg had his best game of the season against San Diego State. However, it’s asking a lot for this Penn State offense to cover such a high spread. The weather is calling for 40s and rain so it might be hard for both offenses to move the ball. I wouldn’t put a penny on this game but I would take Army if I had to.

Pick: Army (+23.5)

Purdue at Michigan State (+22)

This line opened at 27 and has plummeted in direction of the underdog. Michigan State has a perfect record but are 0-4 against the spread. I’m not going to pick the Spartans until they can cover a game. Also I think Purdue can keep this game close. David Blough started his first game yesterday at quarterback against Bowling Green, and threw for 340 yards and tossed two touchdowns.

Pick: Purdue (+22)

Minnesota at Northwestern (-4)

This game was close to making my best bets article before the line moved too far. Minnesota opened as a 6.5-point underdog and was bet down to only a four-point underdog. I would still lean towards the Golden Gophers. Minnesota won three close games and was the only team to slow down the TCU offense so far this season. They are battled tested and will be ready for a trip to Northwestern. The No. 16 Wildcats might be looking ahead to next week’s game at Michigan and not be focused on the task at hand.

Pick: Minnesota (+4)

Nebraska (-6.5) at Illinois

This game is hard to figure out. Nebraska opened as a 7.5-point favorite and it has since moved through the key number of seven to 6.5. This is a tough spot for 2-2 Nebraska. It’s Mike Riley’s first conference game and it’s on the road. Nebraska also might be looking ahead to hosting Wisconsin a week after. Illinois had a huge win against a Middle Tennessee State team that is underrated. I think this situation sets up nicely for quarterback Wes Lunt, who is facing a Nebraska defense that gave up 458 yards against Southern Mississippi last week. I think the Cornhuskers survive but the Illini will cover.

Pick: Illinois (+6.5)

Ohio State (-21) at Indiana

I think this is the game where Ohio State’s offense starts to get back on track. Leaving Columbus and having a conference game is what the team needs to start rolling. Cardale Jones has played his best college football away from home and he faces an Indiana defense that has given 32 point per game this season. The Hoosiers have played South Illinois, Florida International, Western Kentucky and Wake Forest so not necessarily the best competition. Ohio State has NFL players all over their roster and I think Urban Meyer will make sure his team makes a statement.

Pick: Ohio State (-21)

Michigan (-16) at Maryland

I have raved about Michigan but they face unfamiliar territory here. The Wolverines are big road favorites and make their first trip to Maryland since the Terrapins joined the Big Ten. Jake Rudock has improved at quarterback for the Wolverines but I think he might have some trouble on the road. Michigan running back De’Veon Smith left last week’s game with an injury so he may be hobbled. Maryland was destroyed by West Virginia last week 45-6. The Terrapins enter Big Ten play at 2-2 and it looks like it will be a long eight more games. If I had to bet this game, I would take enter 43 points. I can see Michigan winning this one 24-10.

Pick: Maryland (+16)

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