With the 2025 college football season still months away, oddsmakers have already dropped the win totals for teams across the country.
While some programs are expected to thrive and make serious playoff pushes, others might not live up to the hype. Every year, there are teams that fall short of expectations—whether it’s due to coaching changes, tough schedules, or unexpected roster shakeups.
Here's a look at four teams that will fall under their win total for the 2025 season.
4 college football teams that will finish "under" their win total number
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10.5)
In the case of Notre Dame, there's no reason to believe that the Fighting Irish will not be right back in the mix for the College Football Playoff. For Notre Dame, it's more of a matter of how lofty their number is on the year.
Notre Dame sitting at 10.5 means that they have to go 11-1 in the regular season for that to happen. Notre Dame did, in fact, go 11-1 in 2024, but they're going to be breaking in a new quarterback, new defensive coordinator, and several new pieces across the board. While the Irish certainly have a favorable schedule, they still have games at Miami, vs. Texas A&M, @ Pittsburgh, and Syracuse, which can all provide formidable tests.
If the number was 10, that would be a no-brainer, but the reality of a college football season is that going 11-1 is not something that we see many teams accomplish.
2. USC Trojans (7.5)
Lincoln Riley is on the. verge of being ushered out of USC, and a disappointing 2025 season could be the final nail in the coffin. Unfortunately for him, the schedule isn't the most manageable.
The Trojans should be 4-0 to start the year, but getting those final four wins is going to be difficult. The last eight games include @ Illinois, vs. Michigan, @ Notre Dame, @ Nebraska, vs. Northwestern, vs. Iowa, @ Oregon, and vs. UCLA.
Outside of Northwestern, how many of those games are you confident USC will win? We see four definite losses, and then a couple of toss-ups. That's not the sign you want if you're trying to get to 8-4.
3. Oregon Ducks (10.5)
Oregon is, without a doubt, a College Football Playoff contender heading into 2025. However, just like Notre Dame, their number is set at 10.5.
Oregon doesn't have the most difficult schedule in the world, but they do have a trip to Happy Valley to take on Penn State, and they also play teams like Indiana, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Assuming a loss to Penn State on the road, Oregon needs to only lose one more to drop below that number.
The Ducks were able to go 12-0 last year. This season, they're breaking in some new pieces — and we'll see what the offense looks like with Dante Moore — and something tells us they might finish 10-2.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (10.5)
Ohio State is the defending national champion, but even they didn't hit that 10.5 number in 2024. This season, they'll have to replace seven starters on defense, as well as playmakers like Will Howard, Quinshon Judkins, and TreVeyon Henderson.
Oh, and by the way, Ryan Day will also have to replace both of his coordinators and offensive line coach, who all took different jobs.
This isn't going to be a rebuilding year by any stretch of the imagination, but 11-1 seems a bit lofty heading into 2025.