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3 reasons Lane Kiffin will lead LSU to the Playoff in Year 1 and 3 reasons he won't

Jul 23, 2026; Tampa, FL, USA; LSU Tigers head coach Lane Kiffin speaks to the press during SEC Football Kickoff Media Day at the Tampa Marriott. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Jul 23, 2026; Tampa, FL, USA; LSU Tigers head coach Lane Kiffin speaks to the press during SEC Football Kickoff Media Day at the Tampa Marriott. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

While Brendan Sorsby and Texas Tech stole some of the spotlight, Lane Kiffin and LSU were far and away the story of the offseason. Lane Kiffin getting on the plane, and leaving Ole Miss as the Rebels were on their way to the College Football Playoff shocked the sport, and turned everyone against the polarizing head coach.

Lane Kiffin took the LSU job as he felt like the Tigers gave him a better chance at winning National Championships. Winning it all starts with making the College Football Playoff, and the Tigers have a ton of factors that could lead them there, with just as many hurdles standing in their way.

Why LSU will make the Playoff

The roster is loaded with elite talent

The biggest reason that LSU should make the College Football Playoff this season is the fact that the Tigers spent big on talent. Between signing an elite recruiting class that Brian Kelly built and the loaded Transfer Portal class Lane Kiffin was allowed to sign; there's no excuse for this team, as they have all the talent you could ask for.

Sam Leavitt will lead the offense with a stable of running back talent along with a deep room of pass catchers headlined by potential 1st round pick Trey'Dez Green. This team will be transformed on the offensive line with projected 1st round pick Jordan Seaton at Left Tackle along with proven pieces throughout the unit.

The defense brings back the same coaching staff, as Lane Kiffin was able to retain defensive coordinator Blake Baker and his staff. The Tigers brought in elite pieces like Princewill Umanmielen, Ty Benefield, and TJ Dottery to supplement a returning core of Whit Weeks, DJ Pickett, and breakout candidate Dashawn Spears.

Major coaching upgrade

The biggest reason LSU fans should be excited for this season is the fact that this coaching staff should be a massive upgrade. Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr will give the Tigers their most exciting offense since Jayden Daniels' Heisman season, and it'll become a consistent trend in Baton Rouge. Getting Blake Baker to turn down head coaching opportunities to return as defensive coordinator will only help as the unit continues to make strides.

Commitment to fixing the run game

The offense Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr call is mostly seen as a high-flying, pass-heavy offense, but Kewan Lacy's season shows the upside the scheme can have on the run game. The results running the football should be exciting for LSU fans, as the Tigers struggled to run the ball under Brian Kelly aside from when Jayden Daniels would rip off massive plays with his legs.

The Tigers look to be committed to the run game with Caden Durham and former 5-star Harlem Berry returning, while transfers Dilin Jones, Rod Gainey Jr, and Stacy Gage join the room. Just as important is the commitment to the offensive line, as the Tigers added a ton of Power 4 experience to the room to find the best group. You have to be able to run the ball to win in the SEC, and Lane Kiffin has built a room with all the tools to do so.

Why LSU won't make the College Football Playoff

Too much roster turnover

If there's one major red flag for LSU, it's the amount of change the coaching staff and roster have gone through in one offseason. Lane Kiffin has proved he can flip a roster in one offseason, but there are far too many examples of teams struggling to gel with a team made up of transfers. The tests start early in the schedule for LSU, and Lane Kiffin's group is going to need to prove worthy of putting it all together quickly.

An incredibly tough schedule

The biggest factor working against Lane Kiffin heading into his first season at LSU is the fact that the Tigers face a loaded group of opponents. Opening the season against Clemson is a massive test for Kiffin as he tries to get this roster filled with transfers to gel together. Facing Ole Miss and Texas A&M to end September is a massive test, but the stretch of Auburn, Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee feels impossible to overcome.

Can Sam Leavitt return to form post injury?

The 2024 Arizona State Sun Devils became fan favorites thanks to Sam Leavitt and Cam Skattebo and the toughness they played with. In 2025, with Skattebo in the NFL, Arizona State still had the makeup of a College Football Playoff team, but injuries cut Leavitt's 2025 season short, as he played just 8 games.

The SEC is a grueling conference to play in, and the hits can stack up quickly, as LSU saw with Garrett Nussmeier. The Tigers do have solid backups in Husan Longstreet and Landen Clark, but if Leavitt doesn't return to form or suffers an injury, LSU will be asking a lot out of quarterbacks who haven't competed at a high level.

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