Coming into the weekend, everyone felt as if the only way the Alabama Crimson Tide would fall out of the College Football Playoff field was if they were blown out in Atlanta. Well, the worst case scenario played out for Alabama as the Crimson Tide suffered a crippling 28-7 loss to Georgia where Kalen DeBoer's team never got anything going.
The loss now makes for a wildly entertaining Selection Sunday as Alabama came into the weekend ranked 9th, but their College Football Playoff hopes are now in serious danger. Given that conference champions from the American and either the Sun Belt or the ACC will occupy the final two places in the 12-team field, this is a race to be ranked in the Top 10.
Alabama will remain in the Playoff despite the massive loss
When Alabama lost to Georgia, the instant reaction was that the Crimson Tide would be left out of the Playoff. After you take some time to look at the bigger picture and what the committee already showed us, it's more likely that the Crimson Tide will occupy the 10th spot in the rankings to sneak into the Playoff.
Directly ranked behind Alabama was Notre Dame, which was ranked 10th coming into Championship Weekend. The Fighting Irish didn't play this weekend, but they'll likely move ahead of the Crimson Tide, who took their 3rd loss after the two flipped places last week.
The battle for the last at-large bid into the Playoff will then likely come down to Alabama and the Miami Hurricanes. While Alabama taking a 3rd loss helps Miami's case, the Hurricanes likely would've been better off with an Alabama win, which would've allowed the Canes to be compared to Notre Dame, whom they've beaten.
While Alabama lost on Conference Championship weekend, there's an argument that can be made that Saturday was just as bad for Miami. While the Hurricanes watched the weekend from home, a 5-loss Duke team that lost to Tulane and UConn won the ACC, weakening the perception of the conference.
Alabama has the better win as they beat Georgia in Athens, but Miami has a great win in their own way with a win over Notre Dame. The issue for the Hurricanes is that they're going to end with just 1 ranked win, while Alabama will have wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt, while Missouri or Tennessee could grab the 25th spot in the rankings.
The losses for both teams create another interesting conversation as the two once again land in a similar place. Two of Alabama's losses came against Playoff opponents in Georgia and Oklahoma, while Miami's losses to Louisville and SMU are going to be against unranked teams.
Alabama's 3rd loss is where the conversation gets really interesting as they were dominated by Florida State in the season opener. While Alabama lost to a terrible Seminoles team, Miami won the game 28-22 in a game the Hurricanes dominated before Florida State made the final score look better late.
The biggest difference that will allow Alabama to survive the 3rd loss is the fact that they played in the conference championship in a much tougher league, while Miami couldn't do the same in a league won by a 5-loss team. Alabama has injuries to fall back on as an excuse for the way that they lost which the committee will almost certainly recognize.
At 12:00 PM Eastern, the College Football Playoff committee will have to make the tough decision between two teams with clear flaws. In the end, it'll be the team that earned the extra game that will be rewarded, and rightfully so.