Predicting the first college football head coach to be fired in 2024

Let's be honest, there are many, and I mean many, head coaches who are rocketing toward unemployment this season.

With disappointing years and failures to reach the playoffs, coaches across the country are depending on a successful 2024 season to keep their jobs on campus.

When it comes down to it, 18 coaches are more at risk than the others. Whether it be because they didn't find immediate success or have taken far too long to rebuild their programs, these are the coaches on the hottest seats as we head into the season:

• Billy Napier, Florida
• Sam Pittman, Arkansas
• Mario Cristobal, Miami
• Dave Aranda, Baylor
• Clark Lea, Vanderbilt
• Kalani Sitake, BYU
• Ryan Day, Ohio State
• Justin Wilcox, California
• Pat Narduzzi, Pittsburgh
• Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati
• Neal Brown, West Virginia
• Shane Beamer, South Carolina
• Tony Elliott, Virginia
• Mike Locksley, Maryland
• Dabo Swinney, Clemson
• Lincoln Riley, USC
• Brent Venables, Oklahoma
• Deion Sanders, Colorado

Now, we have to admit that all 18 coaches aren't going to be laid off at the same time or even all within the same season.

So, which coaches are most likely safe even if they don't find a bounty of wins this year?

• Mario Cristobal, Miami
• Dave Aranda, Baylor
• Clark Lea, Vanderbilt
• Kalani Sitake, BYU
• Justin Wilcox, California
• Pat Narduzzi, Pittsburgh
• Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati
• Neal Brown, West Virginia
• Tony Elliott, Virginia
• Mike Locksley, Maryland
• Deion Sanders, Colorado

Mario Cristobal is coming off one of his best offseasons ever in regards to recruiting. He locked in the city of Miami as a Hurricanes recruiting hub and brought in one of the best classes the Canes have seen in a long time.

Coaches like Justin Wilcox, Scott Satterfield, and Tony Elliott are at programs that have better success in other sports. From the outside looking in, it seems as though those programs are "okay" with being okay at football, for now.

Dave Aranda, Kalani Sitake, and Mike Locksley are all a little too beloved by their fanbases to lose their jobs so quickly. Whether it be the Bears, the Cougars, or the Terrapins, those fans love their head coach and aren't ready to see them go quite yet.

Clark Lea, Pat Narduzzi, and Neal Brown are arguably 'bubble coaches' when it comes to being at risk of getting fired this year.

If they absolutely flounder (winning 3 games or less), they could easily be moved into the hot seat category but if they just pull off a winning, or almost winning, regular season, they will more likely than not be just fine.

With those ten coaches out of the way, which one remaining coach is most at risk of losing his job?

I would argue that it is the one and only Billy Napier.

Napier has been a head coach for nearly seven seasons, starting his HC career at Lousiana, and took over the Florida Gators in 2022.

Over the past two seasons, Napier and the Gators have been kicked while they were down and only won 11 total games.

At the SEC media days this summer, Napier simply said that the Gators are a "work in progress."

Sure, that may be acceptable at some programs, but it isn't at Florida. The program boasts all-time greats like Emmitt Smith, Steve Spurrier, Tim Tebow, and more.

Averaging just 5.5 wins per year isn't going to cut it in Gainesville.

With Oklahoma and Texas joining the mix in the SEC, the Gators have an even bigger mountain to crest this year but if Napier can't pull off at least seven (yes, just 7) wins this season, he may be looking at job boards really soon.

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