Table for 12 Week 7: Indiana has officially arrived as a title contender

The beauty of the college football playoff is that drastically more games matter throughout the regular season, and that new phenomenon of more than six to eight teams being alive for the national championship halfway through the season was in full effect on Saturday.

Week 7 had a marquee matchup out in Eugene with No. 7 Indiana proving that it's entirely for real and just two other ranked-on-ranked matchups with No. 8 Alabama at No. 14 Missouri and No. 1 Ohio State at No. 17 Illinois. However, those were far from the only games of consequence. 

The Red River Shootout featured unranked Texas and unbeaten Oklahoma, but it was so consequential that John Mateer returned from hand surgery in just 17 days while Sooners fans spent the week making hype videos for his doctor and spreading rumors from a Chipotle worker who claimed that Mateer revealed that he was going to play while placing an order. 

There was so much good, important football that we couldn’t just have a three-course meal. This week was an all-you-can-eat buffet, so grab a plate and get in line!

All-you-can-eat

1. Coach Cigs lets his defense play big (No. 7 Indiana 30 No. 3 Oregon 20)

Last season, Indiana faced two ranked teams, Ohio State and Notre Dame, and lost by an average of 16.5 points. Those who wanted to argue that Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers were the fraudulent protect of bloated conferences and unbalanced schedules had a compelling case to make. This year, Cignetti is leaving no doubt. 

His two matchups against AP Top 25 teams thus far are now a 63-10 win over No. 9 Illinois and a 30-20 win over No. 3 Oregon in Eugene. The Hoosiers aren’t just better in Cignetti’s second year; they’re a legitimate national title contender. 

So, how did Indiana get its first road win over a top 5 opponent in program history? It started with a dominant performance from one of the country’s most vaunted front sevens. 

And it’s a real front seven. Unlike most college defenses, which almost exclusively live in nickel and dime packages, defensive coordinator Bryant Haines and the Hoosiers play a true base 4-3 defense, and their three linebackers are so good that they didn’t just survive with heavy personnel against the Big Ten’s most explosive offense, they thrived. 

Fernando Mendoza threw a pick-six in the fourth quarter to even the game at 20 before the Hoosiers stepped on the Ducks’ throat, so the Indiana defense allowed just 13 points. Indiana’s three off-ball linebackers, Aiden Fisher, Rolijah Hardy, and Isaiah Jones, combined for 34 total tackles, 3.5 sacks, and 5.5 tackles for loss. 

The Hoosiers dominated the game up front, sacking Dante Moore, who had been sacked just once all year, four times, pressuring him constantly, and holding Oregon to 3.7 yards per rush. While the front seven is getting the love, the only way you can play defense that way is if you trust your corners to hold up in coverage without much help. D’Angelo Ponds and Jamari Sharpe held up all night, allowing Dakorien Moore just 39 yards on four catches and only 4.89 yards per dropback to Moore. 

The game plan was in direct contrast to what Jim Knowles and Penn State threw at Oregon, with constant three-safety looks that allowed Moore to dissect the Nittany Lions with short and intermediate completions. Indiana challenged, and most impressively, had the athletes not just to throw punches with Dan Lanning’s Ducks, but to deliver the knockout blow. 

You just have to take Indiana seriously as a national title contender because there isn’t a more impressive win this season. 

2. Manning’s finding his Red River rhythm (Texas 20 No. 6 Oklahoma 6)

Just 17 days after hand surgery, John Mateer returned to the field for Oklahoma, and maybe he should’ve given it another week. Mateer had by far his worst game as a Sooner, finishing with three interceptions, 202 yards through the air, and only five yards on the ground. The last part is the biggest problem, and the biggest difference between Mateer and Arch Manning’s performances in their first Red River Rivalry (we can’t call a game with 26 total points a shootout). 

Mateer isn’t Oklahoma’s leading rusher anymore, but for the most part, he’s been the entire run game. The Sooners rank 102nd in EPA/rush at -0.05 and managed -0.19 EPA/carry on Saturday. No Oklahoma running back is generating a positive EPA/carry this season. That puts an awful lot on an injured quarterback who went 0-for-4 on throws over 20 yards downfield, leaving OU’s offense with a one percent explosive play rate against Texas. 

Though he's mostly played clean this season, Mateer is liable to put the ball in harm's way, and with some much responsibility on his shoulders, he did that on Saturday. His mistakes weren't errant throws from his recovering hand, they were mental mistakes stemming from his lack of comfort as a dropback passer and the playmaking load that is thrust upon his shoulders by Ben Arbuckle.

You could argue that Arch Manning, Mateer’s counterpart, got more help, but the reality is that he just played a lot better. Texas' run game, though it managed 88 more yards, was actually just as inefficient, finishing with a 32 percent success rate to Oklahoma’s 36 and -0.12 EPA/carry. 

Steve Sarkisian tried to help Manning with a heavy dose of screens and play-action, but they weren’t productive. Manning did his damage on straight dropbacks, especially on late downs, producing 0.82 EPA/play on late downs with a 64 percent passing success rate despite facing an average distance of 9.50 yards and Brent Venables’ exotic blitz packages. 

Manning was poised in the pocket, protected the football, and although he didn’t push the ball downfield much, with a 4.2-yard average depth of target, he was effective in doing so, completing six of his seven attempts of 10 or more air yards for 96 yards and a touchdown. His accuracy is starting to show up as he gets more comfortable, and Sark is activating his legs in the run game. 

If Sark and Manning are starting to figure out what they’re comfortable with, primarily quick targets to Quintrevion Wisner, and what they’re able to run with a wretched offensive line that allowed pressure on over half of Manning’s dropbacks for the second straight week, Texas will quickly reestablish itself as an SEC Title contender. It's not perfect, but the Longhorns and their quarterback needed this one badly, and they got it.

3. Missouri’s schedule just got Hard(y) (No. 8 Alabama 27 No. 14 Missouri 24)

As a program, Missouri understands its place in the SEC, so it does everything it can to schedule four wins in the non-conference because league victories won’t be easy to come by. That made it hard to determine whether Missouri’s 5-0 start, with all five games in Columbia, was real. 

Last year, its 4-0 record was misleading, and in Week 5, Texas A&M proved it with a 41-10 beatdown. Then, Alabama hammered the point home a few weeks later, 34-0 in Tuscaloosa. This season, there’s too much parity in the SEC for me to write off the Tigers after a three-point loss to Alabama, but their Week 7 performance revealed a major concern. 

Ahmad Hardy entered the week as the nation’s leading rusher, and with the most yards after contact and forced missed tackles. He’s a physical back with a low center of gravity and remarkable contact balance, and he’ll need it against SEC opponents because Missouri’s offense got pushed around by an Alabama defensive line that was without three significant contributors going into the game and lost another depth piece early when Kelby Collins went down with an injury. 

Hardy finished with 52 rushing yards. Guess how many came after contact? 53. And he matched his season-low with just three missed tackles forced. 

Missouri relied so heavily on Hardy’s playmaking ability, especially with Beau Pribula’s limitations as a dropback passer, so if he goes from being the best running back in the country against Louisiana and Umass to even just the fifth best against SEC competition, that could kill the Tigers chances of beating one of Texas A&M or Oklahoma, which it will need to do to make the CFP. 

4. It’s Bo Time! At least it better be soon (No. 1 Ohio State 34 No. 17 Illinois 16)

Minnesota broke the mold with a mind-numbing amount of man coverage, but through Ohio State’s first six games, it’s become evident how defensive coordinators are approaching the task of slowing down Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate, and the Buckeyes. Illinois, like Washington and Texas, lived in shell zone coverages with multiple deep safeties and prayed that Julian Sayin and the run game couldn’t beat them. 

Of course, Sayin did, because he’s one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the country. Against the Illini, he completed 19 of his 27 throws, and on throws of fewer than 10 yards, he went 13-for-15 for 89 yards and a touchdown. 

However, dinking and dunking with short passes won’t get defenses out of their deep safety zones; only running the ball can do that. Because while Sayin has been ridiculously accurate all season, defenses are still limiting explosive plays in the passing game because they can rally and tackle to prevent yards after the catch. Ohio State has just one receiver ranked inside the top 200 in the country in yards after the catch per reception: Brandon Inniss at 7.1. As a team, the Buckeyes averaged 3.2 yac/rec against Illinois (per PFF.com). 

Defenses will continue to take that approach because even running into light boxes all day, Ohio State finished with a 35 percent rushing success rate, and true freshman Bo Jackson had just two successful runs despite his 47 yards on 10 carries. Jackson was banged up in the game, and the Buckeyes still don’t seem to have a clear answer at running back. If Ohio State has a weakness, that’s it. 

5. Hot Mic (No. 10 Georgia 20 Auburn 10)

Three weeks after the SEC apologized to Auburn and Hugh Freeze for two blown calls that cost them a game against Oklahoma, the Tigers got down even dirtier. The officiating was an atrocity, best exemplified by the fact that it took 38 minutes of real time to get from the two-minute timeout in the second quarter to halftime.

That stretch of gametime included a Jackson Arnold fumble on the goalline that should have been overturned because the ball clearly crossed the plane and resulted in a 10-point swing as Georgia drove for a field goal before the break. Then, in the second half, we got the rare do-over when Kirby Smart ran to the linesman signalling for a timeout as the play-clock ran down, then after the play was blown dead to avoid the delay of game penalty, Smart was caught on mic yelling “I was f*****g clapping” as he successfully argued not to be charged a timeout. Georgia ultimately ended that drive with a missed field goal, as Newton’s law of “ball don’t lie” dictates. 

However, to draw a conclusion beyond the officiating in this game is to recognize Kirby Smart’s in-game coaching brilliance. Kalen DeBoer and Josh Heupel seem to be able to catch him off guard in the first half of games, and Hugh Freeze did the same in this one, stunning Georgia with a series of quick completions from Jackson Arnold and uncharacteristic tight end usage. However, Smart makes the best use of halftime of any coach in the country. 

Georgia ranks 60th in first-half points per game allowed at 12.4 and ninth in second-half points per game allowed at 6.2. And if that isn’t illustrative enough of Smart’s brilliance, at the offensive EPA chart for the game and the drop off after the high-water mark of +9.1.6 total offensive EPA after play No. 42 for the Tigers. 

6. Hot Mike (No. 5 Texas A&M 34 Florida 17)

I wrote about how impressive this Texas A&M defense played two weeks ago, but the run that the Aggies have been on since that win against Auburn is getting ridiculous. DJ Lagway carved them early, but Mike Elko’s red-hot defense slammed the door shut, allowing just a field goal after the first quarter. 

Elko has been doing it for a while, but how he’s using a less talented defensive front than he had in College Station last year has quickly made him my favorite defensive mind in college football. It’s all about getting the offense into a passing situation, and then it’s simulated pressures and stunts to confuse the quarterback without actually selling out with blitz. It’s not just Cashius Howell and Dayon Hayes winning on the edges. It’s linebackers and safeties coming from depth, and it’s destroying late-down offenses. 

Across the last three weeks in SEC play, Texas A&M’s opponents are 2-for-37 on third and fourth down. Florida was 1-for-11 and averaged -0.74 EPA/play. That’s 8.83 expected points added by the Texas A&M defense on third and fourth downs alone. 

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7. Time’s up in Tallahassee (Pitt 34 No. 25 Florida State 31)

The Florida State Seminoles have not won an ACC football game in 385 days. The last time they did was against Cal, 14-9 in Week 4 of the 2024 season. Mike Norvell’s team is 0-3 in conference play this season and 1-10 since winning the 2023 ACC Title, and this particular collapse could end up costing him his job after last season’s 2-10 record. 

Norvell’s Florida State teams are now 8-18 off a loss, and if you exclude last season when they lost nearly every game, they’re still 6-11. It’s unacceptable the way that Norvell allows things to snowball, and it will ultimately be his undoing because this team, which started the year with a win over Alabama, looks like it could have a hard time making a bowl game. 

This loss was particularly abhorrent for Seminoles fans because it came with Tommy Castellanos averaging 9.80 yards per dropback with a 12 percent explosive pass rate. And because it came against a true freshman quarterback, Mason Heintschel, who, after throwing two first-half interceptions in his second career start, finished with 304 yards and two touchdowns through the air and 113 yards on the ground. 

Florida State has missed at least 12 tackles a game across this three-game losing streak, but it’s more than just poor tackling. Its coverage busts and poor run fits. It’s every possible sign of a poorly coached team. 

8. Wink and you’ll miss it (USC 31 No. 15 Michigan 13)

Michigan traveled out to Los Angeles a day early this week to prepare for its Week 7 matchup with USC, but Wink Martindale’s defense looked like it just got off the play 10 minutes before kickoff. The Wolverines were shockingly overmatched in the trenches by a USC team that has taken a year and a half to adjust to the physicality of the Big Ten. 

The thing about Lincoln Riley is that he’s known for his great quarterbacks and dynamic passing games, but his best offenses always start on the ground. That was the case at Oklahoma when he dominated with a power run game and counter runs out of spread sets, and it was the case on Saturday night. USC entered the week as the No. 1 run game in the country by success rate and No. 8 by EPA/play, and that translated against the best defense the Trojans have seen so far this year. 

By Collegefootballdata.com’s EPA/play metric, USC’s 0.31 EPA/rush was the best single-game performance against a Michigan defense since TCU’s 51-45 win in the 2022 College Football Playoff semifinal. Most of that production came after the Big Ten’s second-leading rusher, Waymond Jordan, left the game with an injury. Redshirt freshman King Miller bested his career rushing total with 158 yards on 18 carries, and sophomore Bryan Jackson added 35 yards and a touchdown on just five attempts. 

Martindale’s defense struggled early last season as the veteran defensive coordinator leaned too heavily into his blitz-heavy DNA. He ironed those issues out temporarily, but this performance will put him back under scrutiny, and the same goes for Sherrone Moore. Having a $12 million quarterback increases the pressure to win, and the boosters that wrote that check could certainly foot the bill for Moore’s buyout if they don’t think he’s the write coach to maximize the Underwood era. 

Michigan has a relatively soft schedule, so while I typically don’t leave a caveat when I eliminate teams from my CFP picture, if the Wolverines win out and beat Ohio State again, they’ll likely be in at 10-2, but with the way the Buckeyes are playing, that feels like a monumental if. 

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9. Texas Tech, RB, Cameron Dickey (No. 9 Texas Tech 42 Kansas 17)

Defense and the run game can still get it done, especially when you have one of the best defensive lines in the entire country and a running back who can go for 263 yards and two touchdowns. That’s what Cameron Dickey, who had never rushed for 100 yards in a single game, did. 

Texas Tech averaged 7.52 yards per play in Week 7 despite Behren Morton throwing for 91 yards on seven completions and Will Hammond adding 42 yards on seven completions. The Red Raiders finished with 372 yards on the ground with four rushing touchdowns and an average of 9.3 yards per attempt. 

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10. Kiffin almost choked it away (No. 4 Ole Miss 24 Washington State 21)

I tend to focus on the more advanced and predictive stats, and for good reason. However, in this case, I think it’s worth getting back to the basics. Lane Kiffin’s Rebels came into Week 7 averaging 40.2 points per game, the sixth most in the country, and 54 points against non-conference opponents. Washington State entered allowing 33.5 points per game, ranking 111th in the country. 

Yet, Ole Miss did not score its first points until it kicked a field goal with 6:19 left in the second quarter, and the Rebels didn’t take the lead for good until the final minute of the third quarter. Trinidad Chambliss was forced to play the entire game, and Kewan Lacy had to carry the ball 24 times while Washington State was deep in its bag, breaking out the coolest play of the week. 

This was supposed to be a respite for the Rebels coming off a bye week before heading to Athens in Week 8, but after losing to Kentucky and Florida last year, Kiffin almost found an even more disappointing way to choke away his team’s CFP hopes. 

11. Bear saves BYU (No. 18 BYU 33 Arizona 27 (2OT))

BYU said goodbye to Jake Retzlaff in July and turned the offense over to true freshman Bear Bachmeier on short notice. Bachmeier has delivered with a 6-0 start to the season and a stellar performance in the fourth quarter and overtime with his back against the wall in Week 7. 

Arizona extended its lead to 10 early in the fourth quarter, cashing in on Bachmeier’s second red zone interception of the game. However, from that point on, Bachmeier was nails, rushing for 52 yards and a touchdown, and throwing for 38 yards to send the game to overtime. Then, he added another rushing score to win the game. 

Bachmeier completed just 12 of his 29 attempts with two turnovers and nearly a third with a fourth-quarter fumble that was recovered by a BYU teammate. Yet, he found a way to get it done, which has major implications for the Holy War in Provo next week as the Cougars and Utes are two of the top contenders to Texas Tech in the Big 12, along with Cincinnati. 

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12. USF’s offense has flipped the script (No. 24 USF 63 North Texas 36)

Across its last three games, USF is averaging 60 points per game, and the Bulls are averaging 53.5 points if you remove an 18-16 win over Florida and a 49-12 loss to Miami. Yet, despite its wins over the Gators and Boise State, North Texas actually came into its Friday night matchup with USF with a better chance of making the College Football Playoff, according to ESPN’s predictive model. 

That’s because the Mean Green have the clearer path to the American Championship Game without Memphis or Tulane on the upcoming schedule. The Bulls have a showdown with the Tigers looming in Memphis on October 25. 

However, despite the schedule, the Bulls are back to being my pick to represent the Group of Five in the CFP, after a brief dalliance with the Green Wave. The reason that I’m back in on Alex Golesh’s team is that the offense is suddenly sustainable. 

Early in the year, the Bulls relied far too heavily on explosive plays, but in the recent outbursts, including Byrum Browns’ five-touchdown performance against North Texas, they’ve been much more consistent on a down-to-down basis. Just look at how drastically they move from Weeks 1-3 to Weeks 4-7 when graphing success rate on the x-axis and explosiveness on the y-axis. 

The exposiveness is still in there, but as long as Brown isn’t living and dying by the chunk play, then I’ll back the Bulls.