Texas Tech is the wild card that will determine the College Football Playoff

Texas Tech's David Bailey (31) celebrates a sack with teammates Romello Height (9) and John Curry a Big 12 Conference football game, Saturday, Nov. 15, 2025, at Jones AT&T Stadium.
Texas Tech's David Bailey (31) celebrates a sack with teammates Romello Height (9) and John Curry a Big 12 Conference football game, Saturday, Nov. 15, 2025, at Jones AT&T Stadium. | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As the Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff begin, the matchups are expected to be far closer across the board after the Group of 5 programs were eliminated. Everyone will make their predictions for each game, but in the end we won't truly know how each team will fare until they take the field. When looking at the teams left standing in the field, no one is more unpredictable than the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

We've seen matchups between Ole Miss and Georgia, Alabama and Georgia, Ohio State and Indiana, Indiana and Oregon, and Miami playing against top teams in Texas A&M and Notre Dame. The one team we haven't seen face one of the most talented groups is Texas Tech who played a weaker Non-Conference schedule.

The one time we saw Texas Tech lose it was without their starting quarterback Behren Morton who missed the game with an injury. The best defense money can buy did what they do best shutting down Arizona State's rushing attack while making Arizona State settle for 4 field goals with 2 touchdowns.

Where Arizona State did have success is passing as Sam Leavitt threw for 319 yards and a touchdown as Jordyn Tyson and Jaren Hamilton each went over 100 yards on the day.

If Oregon is going to beat Texas Tech, it's likely going to need to be in a similar fashion to the gameplan the Sun Devils followed. The Ducks don't have a wide receiver nearly as dynamic as Jordyn Tyson, but their offensive line is much better and likely won't allow 4 sacks either.

Texas Tech's defense is loaded with NFL level talent, and while they haven't faced an offense as good as Oregon's this season, it's easy to believe they'll rise to the occasion. The defensive front is going to create pressure like we've seen all season which makes it much easier for everyone else on the defense. With talents like David Bailey, Romello Height, AJ Holmes, and Lee Hunter rushing the passer it's hard to be concerned.

Where everyone needs some answers is with the Texas Tech offense as they face the toughest defense they've seen. Behren Morton has had a stellar season when healthy, but the concern will be if the Texas Tech receivers can create separation against Oregon's defensive backs.

The Ducks defensive line will be the best Texas Tech has faced which could create a ton of problems especially in the rushing attack. Cameron Dickey and J'Koby Williams carved opposing defenses in the regular season, but if the rushing attack gets shutdown, this game won't be played in a favorable fashion for Joey McGuire's team.

If Texas Tech shows up and proves they're the real deal, it should be terrifying for the rest of the teams in the College Football Playoff as this defense can shut any offense down. Anytime you take a massive jump in competition, it's impossible to predict, but the good news is the staff had almost a month to prepare for this game as they knew James Madison wouldn't pull off the upset.

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