For most of this season, the Group of 5 bid into the College Football Playoff appeared to be USF's to lose. Between picking up big Non-Conference wins and doing an impressive job in the American, it looked like USF would march it's way to the AAC championship for a chance to make the College Football Playoff.
Coming into Saturday, USF was the only ranked team in the Group of 5 after being ranked 24th in the College Football Playoff poll on Tuesday Night. It turns out that once the USF Bulls got their praise they fell apart and we've now seen the AAC front runner fall in back to back weeks.
USF's stunning collapse changes the entire Group of 5 race
For most of this season, the assumption has been that the winner of the American would earn the Non-Power 4 bid into the College Football Playoff. After Memphis and USF have suffered losses in back-to-back weeks, knocking them out of the race in the American, the AAC may need help now in order to make the Playoff.
The events in the American have been especially helpful for the Sun Belt and specifically James Madison. The Dukes are 8-1 with a 6-0 record in the Sun Belt heading into Saturday's game against App State. Given that James Madison could end the regular season with just 1 loss, they may end up having a better record than any other non-Power 4 school.
The Americans' best chances to make the playoffs are with Navy, Tulane, and North Texas, who each have a loss in league play. If the American is going to make the Playoff, it'll need one of the 3 front-runners to run the table; other wise a 3 loss team with 2 losses in league play may not be good enough to edge out James Madison.