The Path to the 12-team College Football Playoff Week 11: Jalen Milroe runs wild in Death Valley

My favorite part of the Year 1 of the 12-team College Football Playoff era has been the elimination games. Sure, we had elimination games with the four-team format, and you could argue that every game was one because a loss was that damaging, but that meant by Week 11, nearly every team was already out of the race. Two-loss Alabama and two-loss LSU almost certainly would’ve been, but instead, we got a loser-goes-home matchup under the lights in Death Valley. 

The was far from an instant classic, but I’ll bet my Saturday night on that formula every single time. Especially with the SEC appetizer in Oxford. With LSU and Georgia both going down, there are three teams in the conference with one loss, five with two, four weeks to settle it, and no divisions. Every conference race is tightening up, but I’m ready to make my official late-season predictions for each Power-4 champ. So, come, join me as we walk down the path to the 12-team CFP.  

The Statements

The biggest wins of Week 11

1. Big Moment Milroe

Jalen Milroe has played in two big-time showcase games so far this season and he’s been up to the moment both times. Kalen DeBoer brought a resume as one of the best big-game coaches in the country down to Tuscaloosa after multiple unlikely wins over Oregon with Washington last year, and he’s only building on it with wins over Georgia and now LSU in Death Valley 42-13. 

DeBoer is a bespoke game-planner, whether it's shocking Kirby Smart with Milroe running his offense out of empty sets to jump out to a big lead, or feasting on Dan Lanning’s aggressiveness in the Pac-12 title game. However, he didn’t need to do much of anything special for this one because Milroe was the worst possible matchup for LSU’s defense. 

In Week 9, the Tigers blew a first-half lead when the Aggies inserted Marcel Reed and he proceeded to run all over them. A&M put up 31 second-half points with Reed throwing just two passes. Milroe did the same, rushing for 185 yards and four touchdowns on just 12 carries. 

The three best dual-threat quarterbacks the Tigers have faced, Reed, Milroe, and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, have all torched first-year defensive coordinator Blake Baker’s unit. Reed and Sellers both posted the most effective game of their careers by EPA/rush and Milroe’s 1.28 was his second best. 

When these dynamic quarterbacks face LSU, it’s not about down-to-down dominance, just the explosive plays like Milroe’s 72-yard second-half TD run that sealed it. Alabama generated six explosive plays on the ground and without them, the offense’s EPA/rush was -0.20, which would rank 133rd in the country. 

Milroe is far from the best NFL prospect in this class, but who cares? He’s wildly efficient and his rushing ability provides an incredibly high floor of productivity for the Alabama offense. He’s only 58th in yards per dropback. Yet, Alabama’s offense is just outside the top 30 in EPA/play because Milroe is ninth in the country in EPA/rush among players with at least 75 carries. NFL draft evaluators can have their issues with his footwork or processing from the pocket, but I guarantee you defensive coordinators would not be excited to gameplan for him and DeBoer in the first round of the CFP. Baker never stood a chance. 

2. Ole Miss plays its way back into the picture

I left Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss Rebels for dead when they lost to LSU in overtime in Week 7, and part of that assumption was that Kiffin’s team wouldn’t beat Georgia in Week 11. Well, with their playoff lives on the line in Week 11, Kiffin and his team proved me wrong with a thorough beat down of the No. 3 team in the country, 28-10, in front of a record crowd in Oxford. 

Last year, Lane Kiffin led Ole Miss to the best record in school history with an 11-2 season, but he needed to start winning the biggest games on the schedule and this is a step in the right direction. The most promising part for Ole Miss fans starved for a real national contender, is that he identified the problem, and solved it in one offseason. 

Ole Miss has long been an SEC-caliber team at the skill positions, even back to the Hugh Freeze era, but lacked the physicality in the trenches to win ugly, so Kiffin got some. In Week 11, Florida transfer Princley Umanmielen, who was brought to Oxford for exactly this game, destroyed Georgia left tackle Earnest Greene, finished with six pressures, and sealed the game with a strip-sack, his second sack of the night. 

The additions of Umanmielen and Walter Nolen from Texas A&M may have cost Kiffin Quinshon Judkins, who left for Ohio State, but Kiffin was wise to sacrifice offensive firepower because he’s a good enough play-caller to create his own. 

Without star receiver Tre Harris and running back Henry Parrish Jr. Judkins’ replacement, Kiffin and Jaxson Dart manufactured a quality offense against Kirby Smart’s elite defense. Dart finished as the team’s leading rusher, Cayden Lee became his primary target, and the Rebels kept rolling. Even backup QB Austin Simmons led a touchdown drive when Dart left the game in the first half with an injury before quickly getting back on the field. 

Ole Miss can make the College Football Playoff, and so can Georgia. Two losses in the SEC is far from a disqualification in a 12-team format. However, considering how poorly Carson Beck is playing with 12 interceptions across his last three games, the Dawgs may not be done losing. If Georgia couldn’t block the Rebels, slowing down the Tennessee pass rush won’t be an easy task next week. 

The death penalty

They may not be mathematically eliminated, but with a loss this week, these teams are no longer CFP contenders. 

3. Omar Bradley dooms LSU

Sure, I could take this moment to break down the failings of LSU’s run game or Garrett Nussmeier’s propensity for back-breaking interceptions, but after a 42-13 loss in Death Valley, there is one man who deserves more blame than any other, Louisiana governor Jeff Landry. 

LSU has not had a live Tiger mascot on the sidelines for games since 2015, ya know, because that’s wildly inhumane. However, this week, my guy Jeff (not my guy) decided to change that. He has made a strong push to get a tiger back into Tiger Stadium all season, but Mike The Tiger was not an option, so instead with the Crimson Tide coming to town, he outsourced, flying in a Tiger from Florida, who was clearly bad luck. 

The Tiger Landry had caged and out on the sidelines was bizarrely named Omar Bradley after World War II US Army General Omar Bradley. 

The night that ended LSU’s 15-game winning streak in home night games should always be known as “The Omar Bradley Game,” and if a losing streak builds, the curse of Omar Bradley. This is the ultimate “only in college football” story, but remember LSU fans, don’t blame Omar Bradley, this is not his fault, Jeff Landry should have known a fake Mike The Tiger would never work. 

4. Iowa State injuries lead to upset

Finally, an offensive explosive at Arrowhead Stadium. Surprisingly, it didn’t come from the 8-0 team with Patrick Mahomes, instead the 3-6 Kansas Jayhawks and Jalon Daniels. Now, with back-to-back losses in Big 12 play, Matt Campbell’s Iowa State Cyclones have been all but knocked out of the conference title race. 

Kansas put up 31 points in the first half and Daniels had receivers running wide open all game. In Campbell’s defense, injuries have mounted on his – well – defense. The Cyclones were without at least four significant defensive contributors and if you watched the game without knowing that, I’m sure you weren’t surprised to find out. 

Daniels averaged a staggering 12.29 yards per dropback, threw for nearly 300 yards on 12 completions, and Kansas gained nearly eight yards per play. It’s far too late in the season to matter, but this is the version of the Jayhawks that some expected to contender in the Big 12. 

The silver lining for Iowa State is that redshirt sophomore quarterback Rocco Becht just wouldn’t go away. Iowa State’s offense nearly matched Kansas with 7.66 yards per play and generated even more explosives. With Becht likely back in Ames next year, there’s legitimate reason for optimism around a program that felt like it was in a stale loveless marriage with its once hot and up-and-coming head coach. The kid really did fix things. 

“I promise you one thing…”

With a 12-team CFP, one loss doesn’t end your season anymore, and two might not either

5. Miami played with fire, Miami got burned

In Week 11, for the fourth time this season, the No. 4 Miami Hurricanes trailed at halftime against an unranked opponent. All season Cam Ward and the Hurricanes have played with fire, and this time they finally got burned.

After leading The U 14-10 at halftime, Georgia Tech braced for a second-half onslaught that never came. Ward pulled the Canes to within five points with a 38-yard touchdown throw to Xavier Restrepo with 6:07 left in the fourth quarter, but with under two minutes left, Ward was stripped by GT’s Jordan Van Den Berg to seal the Yellow Jacket’s 28-23 win. Along with Clemson’s loss to Louisville a week ago, the ACC is now almost certainly a one-bid league and that bid will likely be decided by Miami and SMU in the ACC title game. 

Mario Cristobal’s team has lived on the razor’s edge all season with a leaky defensive secondary routinely getting bailed out by Ward’s propensity for explosive plays. In Week 11, GT’s two-quarterback system between Haynes King and Aaron Philo kept the Miami defense off-balance and most importantly kept Ward and his armory of weapons on the sidelines. 

Georgia Tech held the ball for 34:49 including a first-half touchdown drive that chewed nearly 11 minutes off the clock. Then when their defense was out there, head coach Brent Pry’s first-year defensive coordinator Tyler Santucci had the perfect plan, regularly spying Ward with a linebacker to prevent him from breaking the pocket to hunt deep shots in the scramble drill, and in big moments, disguising blitzes to get free rushers without sending the house. 

Miami’s passing offense has generated an explosive on 14.4% of plays this season, 98th percentile in the country, and Georgia Tech held the Canes to just three on Ward’s 42 dropbacks and none in the run game. Miami had just a 36% success rate on late downs. Ward, Restrepo, Isaiah Horton, Jacolby George, and Sam Brown Jr. have been an easy button for this offense all year, but they didn’t have an answer when Santucci made things hard. 

Conference Championship Predictions and Confidence Level

6. Big Ten: Ohio State Buckeyes, Confidence: Some

For the second straight week Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles blitzed on over 60% of the opposing quarterback's dropbacks. Knowles held Purdue quarterback Hudson Card to just over 100 passing yards and the No. 2 Buckeyes are 8-1 after a 45-0 win at home. 

Knowles’ secondary, which got exposed by Dillon Gabriel and Oregon’s talented receiving corps, has been lights out since that Week 7 loss in Eugene. The recent resurgence from Davison Igbinosun and Denzel Burke, who could have left for the NFL after last season, has allowed Knowles to lean into his aggressive identity. No, the Buckeyes won’t shut down the Ducks in a possible Big Ten title game rematch, but they’ll be able to blitz more than 36% of the time, despite having considerable success against Gabriel with extra rushers. 

Offensively, Donovan Jackson has transitioned well from left guard to left tackle, and Will Howard is surrounded by enough playmakers to produce at an elite level. The most exciting of those playmakers had a historic day in Columbus. With his ninth touchdown catch of the year, Jeremiah Smith passed Chris Carter for the most receiving touchdowns by a freshman in program history. 

7. SEC: Texas Longhorns, Confidence: More

In Quinn Ewers’s first three games back from his oblique injury, the veteran Texas quarterback didn’t have a single game with an average depth of target of 6.0 or an average yards per attempt of 8.0 or higher. Then, in Texas’s 49-17 blowout win of Florida in Week 11 off a bye, Ewers threw for 333 yards and five touchdowns on 19/27 passing with an ADOT of 9.4 and averaged 12.3 yards per attempt. 

Ewers looked much healthier with sharper footwork and it translated to better accuracy, especially as a deep ball thrower. It was his first game with multiple completions of over 20 yards downfield since Texas’s Week 2 win over Michigan and it could’ve been more if DeAndre Moore Jr. had held onto an excellent deep ball from Ewers in the first half that would have been a walk-in touchdown. Matthew Golden did catch a Ewers touchdown from 32 yards out.

With Ewers and wide receiver Isaiah Bond both back to 100%, the Longhorns can threaten defenses at all three levels like no other team in the SEC. Steve Sarkisian’s team is far from perfect and an injury to right tackle Cameron Williams on Saturday, if it turns out to be long-term won’t help them fare better in a rematch with Georgia, but with Ewers playing this well, and Georgia struggling to even get back to Atlanta for Round 2, I’m taking the Longhorns and I feel pretty good about. 

8. ACC: Miami Hurricanes, Confidence: Stubborn

I bet Miami to win the ACC at +425 before the season and I haven’t wavered in my belief of the most potent offense in the country. But after a Week 11 loss to a pedestrian Georgia Tech team playing two quarterbacks, I certainly feel the worst I’ve felt about the team’s prospects of claiming a top-four spot in the CFP. 

While the Hurricanes were tripping up in Atlanta, SMU was sitting on a bye week at 8-1 with a 6-0 record in ACC play and Rhett Lashlee’s team now holds sole possession of first place. It could come down to tiebreakers between Miami and Clemson for the spot in the ACC title game, and yet, I’m sticking with my pick. Miami currently owns the tiebreaker, and I’ll take Cam Ward in a one-game play-in. 

SMU has been lethal offensively since making the full-time switch to Kevin Jennings at quarterback, but still not as good as Miami through the air. 

And defensively against the pass, the two teams are nearly identical. Georgia Tech could slow the game down and stay out of a shootout, that’s why they beat Miami, SMU is going to try to beat the Canes at their own game, and the Mustangs just don’t have the horses to do it. 

9. Big 12: Colorado Buffaloes, Confidence: Surprisingly high

Deion Sanders deals in extremes. He always has. So, when his Colorado Buffaloes started 3-0 last season, the hype was out of control and so was the backlash that accompanied the losing streak that followed. That backlash lingered through the offseason and well into this year, but it’s time to admit that Coach Prime has a good team in Boulder. 

The weekend was a perfect upset spot. On the road in Lubbock against a frisky Texas Tech team with tortillas raining down on the sidelines, the Buffs handled business. Colorado fell behind 13-0 in the first quarter and won 41-27. Coach Prime’s team is 7-2, 5-1 in Big 12 play, and controls its own destiny for a CFP bid. 

This team still can’t run the ball and they struggle to stop the run. There are real flaws, but Colorado has the two best players in the entire conference with Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, and three if you count Hunter on both sides of the ball. I’m ready to bet on that over BYU in a one-game scenario. Is that BYU disrespect? Yes, and I’m fine with that.

And the Week 11 Heisman goes to…

10. Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty

Ashton Jeanty has become somewhat of an afterthought in the Heisman Trophy race after an underwhelming performance, by his remarkable standards, against UNLV in Week 9. Then, buried amongst a loaded primetime slate headlined by an Alabama/LSU CFP elimination game in Death Valley, Jeanty went off again. 

In Boise State’s 28-21 win over Nevada, Jeanty cracked 200 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per carry for the first time since Week 7 against Hawaii. He carried it 34 times for 209 yards and had his fifth three-touchdown game of the season. Most importantly for my viewing pleasure, he also left a fossilized imprint of a Nevada player on the blue turf. 

Play the fight song!

Whether by a great play-call or just a great play, the week’s most exciting and important touchdowns

10. Dillon Gabriel’s record-breaker

Dillon Gabriel entered Week 11 just one passing touchdown shy of Case Keenum’s all-time record. In the first half, he hit tight end Terrance Ferguson to tie Keenum’s NCAA record, and after halftime, he broke the record and had some fun doing it. 

Gabriel found offensive lineman Gernorris Wilson for No. 179 on a trick play in Oregon’s 39-18 win over Maryland. The No. 1 team in the country is rolling through Big Ten play and its first-year quarterback has gotten very familiar with the third different fight song of his six-year career. 

11. Dylan Sampson first TD without Iamaleava

With a trip to Athens Georgia on deck next week for the Tennessee Vounteers, a Week 11 win over Mississippi State had a chance to turn into a disaster. Josh Huepel’s team was never at risk of losing to the Bulldogs, in their 33-14 win, but they were at risk of losing their starting quarterback and star running back. 

Nico Iamaleava and Dylan Sampson both left the game with injuries. Iamaleava didn’t play a snap in the second half, so Knoxville got a bit of catharsis when Sampson returned and ran for a 33-yard touchdown. Though, I’m sure Heupel’s reassuring comments about Iamaleava’s status for next week felt even better than hearing Rocky Top. 

UCF 2017 National Championship Memorial Group of Five Team of the Week

12. Tulane Green Wave

While Boise State and Army have stolen the headlines as the Group of Five favorites, the Tulane Green Wave has been lurking in the AAC. In his first year replacing Willie Fritz, Jon Sumrall has taken two losses at Tulane, to Kansas State and Oklahoma back in September, but is undefeated in conference play. Remember, it's the highest-ranked conference champion that gets the G5 bid, so if Boise falls to UNLV in a Mountain West title game rematch and Tulane takes down Army in the AAC championship, the Green Wave will likely get the spot. 

Still, they may need a couple of style points to get the committee’s attention and a 52-6 Week 11 win over Temple certainly qualifies.