It's not a guarantee, but with the amount of carnage we saw last Saturday, there is a chance that we have a potential play-in game for the College Football Playoff on our hands this coming weekend. And it's not Texas at Texas A&M.
While ESPN College GameDay will be in College Station building up a rivalry that is being renewed for the first time since 2011, another rivalry game happening earlier in the day might end up proving to be one of the most important in its history.
The Clemson Tigers, currently ranked No. 12 in the AP Poll, and the South Carolina Gamecocks, ranked No. 16, will battle at noon in Death Valley. There may not be a hotter team in the nation than South Carolina, which has won five-straight include a blowout win over Texas A&M, and the Gamecocks — with three losses — are still in striking distance of an at-large bid if some more chaos happened in front of them.
Though South Carolina won't be helped by head-to-head comparisons, the Gamecocks are playing much better football right now than either Alabama or Ole Miss.
The Crimson Tide and Rebels have a win over South Carolina, but honestly, if there were a three-loss team from the SEC to make the College Football Playoff, it should probably be the Gamecocks considering how they've closed out the season and the fact that they would have another ranked win under their belt — a road win, at that — if they were to beat Clemson.
South Carolina would have wins over Texas A&M, Missouri, and Clemson with a strength of schedule (12) that will likely move ahead of Alabama's after this week (Tide are currently at 11) and is well ahead of Ole Miss (27)
Then there's Clemson.
We'll have to see what the CFP committee does on Tuesday, but if the rankings are similar to the AP Poll, the Tigers would be considered the "first team out." So, the question becomes: Would a win over a top-16 team in South Carolina be enough to propel Clemson one spot ahead and into an at-large bid?
The answer? Clemson probably needs one more team to lose.
If Miami loses, Clemson would compete for the ACC Championship game and control its own destiny. However, there is a group of three other teams that could help Clemson's case for an at-large bid if they were to lose this weekend, as well:
- SMU (vs. Cal)
- Tennessee (vs. Vanderbilt)
- Indiana (vs. Purdue)
If any of these three teams were to lose, Clemson would undoubtedly move ahead of them in the rankings with a win over South Carolina. Yes, SMU doesn't affect Clemson's ACC Championship hopes as Rhett Lashlee's club has already locked up a berth in the conference title game, but if the Mustangs were to lose this weekend to Cal, they would likely fall behind Clemson in the rankings and be on the outside-looking-in if they lost to Miami in the ACC Championship game.
Any of these teams losing would likely give Clemson an at-large bid and, surprisingly enough, could even mean that the ACC gets three teams in the College Football Playoff if everything played out perfectly for the conference. The chances are slim, but they certainly aren't zero.
Right now, it seems that the playoff rundown will be as follows:
- 4 Big Ten teams (Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, and Indiana)
- 3 SEC teams (Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee)
- 1 Big 12 champion
- 1 Group of 5 champion
- Notre Dame
- 2 ACC teams (SMU, Miami, or Clemson)
Would the committee move Clemson ahead of SMU if the Tigers were 10-2 and the Mustangs lost to Miami convincingly in the ACC Championship game? Stranger things have happened.
Truth be told, both Clemson and South Carolina need some help to make the College Football Playoff, but they got exactly what they needed last Saturday and that's why we can at least have this conversation. Is it likely for either team? No, but is it possible? Absolutely.
The shockwaves have yet to be totally felt because we don't know what the College Football Playoff committee will decide with its rankings, but this weekend's Palmetto Bowl matchup is setting up to have implications larger than anything the rivalry has ever seen before.
Clemson and South Carolina will kickoff at 12:00 p.m. E.T. on ABC.