Predicting the College Football Playoff Top 25: Texas' upset win shakes Playoff field

Nov 15, 2025; Athens, Georgia, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian gestures after a game against the Georgia Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
Nov 15, 2025; Athens, Georgia, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian gestures after a game against the Georgia Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Week 14 of the college football season is always one of the most exciting weekends of the year, as Rivalry Week can truly lead to anything. This weekend brought a ton of chaos, but the upsets you typically expect never really came to fruition. The biggest upset of the Week came on Friday Night as Texas handed Texas A&M its first loss of the season.

This weekend sets us up for an eventful conference championship weekend, as there are still plenty of places in the Playoff still up for grabs. This next week will shape the Playoff field as the committee's next set of rankings will largely affect the field, while the conference championship games will complete it.

Predicting the College Football Playoff Top 25 after rivalry week

Josh Heupel's team slipped up once again, this time against Vanderbilt, losing to the In-State rival. The defense couldn't stop the Commodores' rushing attack, allowing Vandy to pick up 314 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground, averaging 8.5 yards per carry. The overall record will be disappointing for Tennessee, but the 4 losses came against teams that went 10-2 or better which is hard to fault.

The Iowa Hawkeyes picked up another win in league play this weekend, dominating Nebraska to finish the regular season 8-4. The Hawkeyes lost 4 games by a combined 15 points, and the close games against Top 25 teams will most likely allow them to return to the Top 25 this week.

The North Texas Mean Green picked up a big win over Temple, punching their ticket to the AAC Championship Game. While Eric Morris is leaving, this team still has a great chance to win the American, which could send them to the College Football Playoff.

The College Football Playoff committee keeps leaving the Dukes out of the Top 25, but this may be the week they finally get in as they deserve. This weekend saw James Madison dismantle Coastal Carolina in Conway, scoring 59 points on the Chanticleers. James Madison has a great chance to win the Sun Belt, and if the AAC Championship doesn't go Tulane's way, it'll open the door for the Dukes.

The Houston Cougars capped off an impressive 9-3 season on Saturday with a last-minute win over Baylor. If not for one of the close losses to TCU or West Virginia, this team would have a College Football Playoff case, which will have the fanbase looking back and thinking about what could've been.

The Arizona Wildcats dominated on defense to pick up a win in the Territorial Cup over Arizona State. The Wildcats' defense shut down the Sun Devils' potent rushing attack, and Jeff Sims couldn't throw his way back into the game. The Wildcats will finish the regular season with a strong 9-3 record, building momentum under Brent Brennan.

The Michigan Wolverines had a chance to vault into the Playoff field if they knocked off Ohio State once again, but it was instead an underwhelming showing from the Wolverines. The offense has struggled most of the season, and the nation's best defense proved to be too much to overcome as Bryce Underwood was held below 100 yards passing. Sherrone Moore's 2nd season ends in disappointment, and the Wolverines will need to fix the offense heading into next season.

Jon Sumrall's team has punched its ticket to the American Championship with a massive win over Charlotte. The Green Wave jumped on the 49ers early, taking a 21-0 first-half lead, and the Tulane defense handled the rest. Sumrall will likely take another job before the AAC championship, but as long as he's able to lead this team the rest of the way, they're going to have a chance to make some noise.

For most of the first 3 quarters, it looked like Lincoln Riley's team was sleepwalking before Makai Lemon ignited the Trojans with a go-ahead touchdown and a big punt return. The Trojans had a great chance to make the Playoff this season, but missing some key pieces for games against Illinois and Oregon will haunt Lincoln Riley, as this team had the talent to do damage.

Tony Elliott's team needed to win to make the College Football Playoff, and on Saturday night, they didn't let the chance go to waste. The Cavaliers raced out to a 14-0 lead in the first half, and a 10-0 3rd quarter put the game out of reach. No one expected Virginia to make the Playoff this season, and now Tony Elliott is a win away from pulling off the unthinkable.

Steve Sarkisian's team looked like the group everyone picked as the best team in the Country before the season, with a big win over Texas A&M. Arch Manning struggled passing as he was pressured all night, but he and Quintrevion Wisner combined for 208 yards and a score rushing to power the offense. The defense was incredible, forcing a pair of interceptions, shutting down an explosive passing attack to give Texas a chance to make the Playoff.

Once again, it looked like Utah was on upset alert, trailing as they entered the 4th quarter, but they rallied late, scoring 21 points in the 4th quarter to win the game. Devon Dampier was impressive, throwing for 3 touchdowns, but it was a 97-yard pick-six by Elijah Davis that won the Utes the game. The Utes remain in the mix for the Playoff but may need even more help from Conference Championship weekend.

Coming into Saturday, the Vanderbilt Commodores really needed to impress against Tennessee to have a chance at making the College Football Playoff. The Commodores delivered, scoring 45 points on the Vols en route to a massive Top 25 victory. Sedrick Alexander turned in an incredible performance, rushing for 3 touchdowns, averaging 11.5 yards per carry in the win. Clark Lea has truly built this team into a power in the SEC, but they'll need help to make the Playoff.

The Miami Hurricanes needed to win with some style in their regular season finale to try and convince the committee that they're a Playoff team, and they may have gotten the job done with a 38-7 win over Pitt. Carson Beck was stellar, passing for 3 touchdowns with just one interception, trying to get Malachi Toney the single-season reception record. The Canes will now await where the committee stacks them, as they'll likely need help during the conference championships.

After falling in an early 14-0 hole, BYU turned it on to demolish UCF and send the Cougars to the Big 12 Championship Game. LJ Martin delivered another 3-touchdown performance while Bear Bachmeier took care of the football, adding a touchdown of his own. The Cougars now have a chance to avenge their only loss and send themselves to the Playoff with a win over Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship.

As is tradition in The Iron Bowl in Jordan-Hare, the game came down to Auburn driving with the ball late, but the Crimson Tide were able to strip Cam Coleman to secure the win. Kalen DeBoer's team flirted with disaster after taking an early 17-0 win, but Ty Simpson found Isaiah Horton for his third touchdown of the game to save Alabama's season, and set the Crimson Tide up for a rematch with Georgia in Atlanta.

The Oklahoma Sooners were on the edge of their seat the entire game on Saturday as the LSU Tigers delivered a serious upset scare. John Mateer threw 3 ugly interceptions, but the Sooners were able to take the lead late on a 58-yard strike to a wide-open Isaiah Sategna III. The Sooners' offense needs to find a way to play cleaner games, but the name of the game is surviving late.

Notre Dame is currently facing Stanford; their ranking will be updated following the conclusion of the game.

Texas A&M played a weaker schedule this season, and they showed signs of being vulnerable at points in the season, leading to Friday's loss. Marcel Reed struggled mightily against the Texas defense, with a pair of interceptions limiting the passing attack. The loss will cost Texas A&M a trip to Atlanta and a first-round bye, but they're still heading to the College Football Playoff.

The Ole Miss Rebels looked unfazed by all of the news surrounding Lane Kiffin's courtship as they dominated the Egg Bowl. Trinidad Chambliss took care of the football while throwing for 4 touchdowns, while Kewan Lacy added a score of his own to get to 20 touchdowns on the season. Lane Kiffin still hasn't made a decision, but it could end up changing how the committee views Ole Miss.

Dan Lanning's team needed to overcome one last test to punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff, and they delivered with a 26-14 win over Washington. Dante Moore powered the offense with a passing and a roushing score while Atticus Sappington nailed 4 field goals and a pair of extra points matching Washington's totals himself. Dan Lanning's team is heading back to the Playoff, and having the week off will be critical for getting some of the key pieces back from injury.

Joey McGuire's team closed out the regular season with a blowout win, dominating West Virginia on the way to a 49-0 win. The Red Raiders' defense was dominant, holding West Virginia below 200 yards while forcing a pair of interceptions. The offense got whatever it wanted as Behren Morton and Lloyd Jones III combined for 5 passing touchdowns while linebacker Jacob Rodriguez added a rushing score to his impressive season. Texas A&M's loss sets Texas Tech up perfectly to earn a first-round bye in the Playoff, if they handle business in the Big 12 Championship Game.

It wasn't pretty for Kirby Smart's team, but they picked up a key win over Georgia Tech to move to 11-1 on the season, likely punching their ticket to the Playoff. The Bulldogs' defense was dominant, keeping Georgia Tech out of the endzone, allowing the offense to win a game where they weren't clicking. This team has found a way to win close games late, and it's become the perfect recipe for success in these big games.

While plenty of teams dealt with tough tests during Rivalry Week, the Indiana Hoosiers cruised to a 56-3 win over Purdue. The Hoosiers were dominant running the ball, picking up 9.6 yards per carry for 355 yards and 5 touchdowns. This team has been dominant the entire season, and they now get to prove how dangerous they are in the Big Ten Championship and the Playoff.

Ryan Day has finally gotten the monkey off his back as the Ohio State Buckeyes knocked Michigan out of he race for the College Football Playoff. Julian Sayin threw an early interception, but rebounded perfectly, finishing the game with 3 touchdowns. The Buckeyes' running backs looked like the group we've seen Michigan roll out as Bo Jackson led the way with 117 yards. The defense continues to look like the best unit in the Country, as they held Bryce Underwood to under 100 yards passing to send Ohio State to the Big Ten Championship.

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