The College Football Playoff is the goal for FBS teams each year. It brings prestige, a recruiting boost, and increased funding for NIL and the transfer portal.
The 2026 College football season is just under two months away, and fall camp is even closer, with the earliest teams reporting by the end of July.
Even with Texas Tech no longer a guarantee to make the CFP, the Red Raiders will be formidable, as will BYU, Houston, Utah, Arizona, and TCU. And the middle of the conference should be strong, with Baylor, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State in the mix.
With that in mind, here are the games that will determine the Big 12's chances at a CFP bid in 2026:
The 5 biggest clashes in the Big 12
Honorable mentions: Oregon at Oklahoma State (September 12th), Arizona State at Texas A&M (September 12th), Baylor at Houston (November 28th)
5. Texas Tech at Houston, September 18th
With both teams coming off strong seasons, this matchup will determine if Texas Tech (12-2 in 2025) is able to keep things rolling towards another CFP berth or if Houston (10-3 in 2025) is ready to ascend in the conference pecking order.
QB Connor Weigman returns for the Cougars, and top transfer RB Makhi Hughes should complement him nicely. Both could be dark horse Heisman candidates this year.
For Texas Tech, this should be an early test for whoever replaces Brendan Sorsby at quarterback. Will Hammond is not likely to be available until late September, so newcomer Kirk Francis or redshirt freshman Lloyd Jones III will likely get the keys to a stacked team that returns six offensive starters and five on defense, along with a slew of incoming transfers.
4. BYU at Notre Dame, October 17th
The Cougars have a returning QB in Bear Bachmeier, who burst on the scene as a freshman last year to lead BYU (12-2) to the doorstep of the CFP.
Notre Dame returns 15 starters and has reloaded in recruiting and the portal, and with a chip on their shoulder, the BYU game is a statement opportunity to show they belong in the CFP conversation.
The same applies to the Cougars - there's nothing like a win over a nationally renowned program to give you a resume boost in the CFP standings.
3. Houston at Utah, October 24th
Houston, should they defeat Texas Tech in Week 3, could be unbeaten by this point of the season, and a win over the Utes (11-2 in 2025) would bolster their playoff resume at the perfect time.
Utah has a Week Three matchup with Arkansas, but otherwise has a manageable schedule before the Houston game. Returning QB Devon Dampier and RB Wayshawn Parker lead the way, but the Utes lost a lot in the offseason, and a strong Houston team could prove too much for them.
2. BYU at Utah, November 7th
The Holy War should again be a ranked matchup, with both BYU and Utah having CFP aspirations in 2026. Each team returns a starting QB and RB, the backbones of successful offenses a year ago. Both suffered humiliating losses to the eventual Big 12 champion, Texas Tech (twice, in BYU's case).
With neither team facing TT this year, one obstacle is removed from their path. But the rivalry with each other still exists as the biggest game on the schedule. BYU has won the last three matchups, and Utah won the prior nine meetings, so there's definitely a lot on the line - bragging rights, the Big 12, and the CFP.
1. TCU at Texas Tech, November 26th
While other rivalry games get more attention, TCU vs. Texas Tech is one of the hottest ones in college football. The schools have played 67 times in the last century, Texas Tech having a slight advantage at 33 wins, 31 losses, and 3 ties.
TCU (9-4 in 2025) has owned the rivalry over the last decade, with a 6-3 advantage over Tech in that time, and the Horned Frogs want to get back to competing for Big 12 championships and beyond.
TT needs every win they can get, even as the defending champs in the Big 12. Everyone's gunning for them this year, and this will be one of the last chances to impress the committee.
Add us as a preferred source on Google