Big Ten Stock Watch: Which teams are rising, falling, or staying put?

The Big Ten has won back-to-back national championships, with Michigan and Ohio State winning the last two national championships. This year, the Big Ten is hoping to secure a third straight national championship, with Penn State the favorite to win the Conference. There are also other talented teams with a great chance to go to the College Football Playoff including, including Oregon, Illinois, and Ohio State.

Below, I conducted a simple exercise where I indicated whether I would buy, sell, or hold each Big Ten team's stock this year. This exercise is not saying whether a team is a great team, but rather how they are trending as a team going forward. Below are the teams and how they finished in the pre-season Big Ten rankings, then I gave them a buy, sell, or hold designation.

1)Penn State Nittany Lions - Hold

Penn State, on paper, should be the best team in the Big Ten, as it has a talented core of players returning this season.  The question is, can Penn State Head James Franklin win a big game? That is why I have them hold a designation. They were picked as the favorite to win the Big Ten for a reason. It will be an interesting season to see if Franklin and Penn State can get over the hump and win the Big Ten for the 1st time since 2016.

2) Ohio State Buckeyes - Buy

I am buying Ohio State as a program, even though I doubt they win back-to-back national championships. They are still the most talented team in the Big Ten and should be a top team in the Big Ten this year. They have probably the best offensive player in the nation in Jeremiah Smith and the best defensive player in Caleb Downs.  

3) Oregon Ducks - Hold

I am a big believer in Oregon Head Dan Lanning, but I am going to say hold for them because they lost a ton of players off last year’s team, and I am curious to see how Lanning does after going 13-1 last year and losing most of the team. They have recruited well and done well in the transfer portal, but I am curious to see if Lanning can reload.

4) Illinois Fighting Illini- Buy

It's hard for anyone to do anything aside from buying stock in the program Brett Bielema is building at Illinois. Coming off a 10-win season and bringing back most of their team, they should be a contender to win the Big Ten. Led by talented quarterback Luke Altmyer, Illinois will be a tough opponent for anyone who plays them.  

5) Michigan Wolverines - Sell

I am selling Michigan. At some point in the fall, Michigan will face sanctions from the NCAA for the Connor Stallions sign-stealing scandal. Sherrone Moore is also suspended for two games, and he could face further punishment as well. On the field, they should be like last year, with a good defense and a limited team on offense, although 5-star freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood has the skills to be a good quarterback.

6) Indiana Hoosiers -Buy

Indiana surged last year with 1st-year coach Curt Cignetti leading Indiana to 11 wins and making the College Football Playoff. Probably the best season in Indiana football history. I expect them to fall back, with a tougher Big Ten schedule, but Cignetti's program is in good shape since he is such a successful head coach.

7) Iowa Hawkeyes - Hold

Kirk Ferentz's team should be better this year because, for the 1st time in a long time, as they appear to have a good quarterback, as they signed Mark Gronowski from South Dakota State from the transfer portal. If he is good and Iowa is their usual self on defense, they could make them and get 9 or 10 wins.

8) Nebraska Cornhuskers - Buy

I am buying Nebraska going into year 3 of Matt Rhule. The benefit for Rhule and Nebraska is that talented quarterback Dylan Raiola is back after and down freshman year. He should be better going into his 2nd year, and he had an entire off-season to learn Dana Holgerson's offense after he took over in the middle of the year as Nebraska’s play caller.  

9) USC Trojans- Sell

I am selling on USC and Head Coach Lincoln Riley. Riley has been a huge disappointment for USC. After winning 11 games in year 1, his program has steadily gone backwards, winning 8 and 7 games in the last 2 years. They currently have the top recruiting class in the 2026 class, which is a positive step, but I am not a believer in Riley after 2 disappointing seasons in a row.

10) Washington Huskies - Hold

I am holding on Washington and Head Coach Jedd Fisch. I think they should be better in Fisch’s 2nd season, but I am still not sure about where the program will be heading for Fisch and company. Talented quarterback Demond Williams takes over, and if he turns out to be a good player, they could be an improved team.

11) Minnesota Golden Gophers - Buy

I am buying Minnesota and PJ Fleck. I love how they have an identity of running the ball and playing good defense. It might not be flashy, but it is a productive approach to coaching in Minnesota. I do not think Fleck will ever win the Big Ten, but they will always be a consistent program.

12) Wisconsin Badgers - Sell

I am selling on Luke Fickell and Wisconsin. Since Fickell has taken over, the program has taken a step back. They have gone 13-13 in the last two years. They also have one of the toughest schedules I have seen in the Big Ten in a while.

T-13) Michigan State Spartans - Hold

Going into year 2 of Jonathan Smith, I think they are going in the right direction, but I am not sure, so that is why it is a hold for Michigan State. Smith does bring back talented quarterback Aidan Chiles, who should be better in year 2 as the starting quarterback.

T-13) Rutgers Scarlet Knights - Buy

I am buying in on Greg Schiano and Rutgers. This program is trending up with recruiting and has been doing better on the field, winning 7 games in back-to-back seasons. They never win the Big Ten, but they are trending up as a program.

15) UCLA Bruins - Hold

I am giving a hold designation for UCLA this season. They had a nice spring portal pick-up with quarterback Nico Iamaleava, but the rest of the program seems average at this point. Making a bowl game would be positive for Head Coach DeShaun Foster in year 2.

16) Maryland Terrapins - Hold

Head Coach Mike Locksley's program fell back to 4 wins last year after winning 8 games in back-to-back seasons. I am holding on Maryland to see if Locksley can turn it around and see if they can at least make a bowl game.

17) Northwestern Wildcats - Sell

I am not sure Northwestern still belongs in the Big Ten; at the very least, they will struggle to get any consistency in the new Big Ten with all the new talented teams joining the conference. SMU transfer Preston Stone is a massive upgrade at the quarterback position but, this team still lacks the elite talent. Coming off a 4-win season, making a bowl would be a successful season.

18) Purdue Boilermakers - Sell

I like the hire of Barry Odom from UNLV as Head Coach, but the program is still a mess, and I have no clue if Odom can fix it. Former Head Coach Ryan Waters struggled badly, going 5-19 in two seasons at Purdue. This roster underwent a ton of turnover once again in the offseason, making it incredibly difficult to build anything sustainable.

More Big Ten News: